Toledo Weather - Wed, Jun 10, 2015 #toledo #weather hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 541 am edt wed jun 10 2015 for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. the storm prediction center has indicated there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of a cold front approaching from the north as well as on lake breezes that will develop along the south shore of lake erie. a few of the stronger storms could become severe with damaging winds the main concern. .days two through seven...thursday through tuesday. there is a risk for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms thursday afternoon and evening as storms develop along a front stalled in the area. the threat will continue friday as the front turns warm and lifts north through the area and a cold front approaches from the northwest. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed. hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jun 9, 2015 10:12 pm Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11am. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 80. hr. fxus61 kcle 101920 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 320 pm edt wed jun 10 2015 synopsis... a cold front across lower michigan will move southeast across the local area tonight and then stall just to the south on thursday. this front will eventually move back north across the area on friday. an area of low pressure will dissipate as it moves east across the area friday night into saturday. && near term /until 6 am thursday morning/... the area has gotten fairly quiet with just a couple storms over far ne oh and nw pa. the surface cold front remains over lower michigan but is currently quiet. surface dewpoints have snuck into the middle 60s in the west but it appears much of the area remains capped. models continue to show this cap busting in a couple of hours but the window for severe weather appears to be getting smaller and smaller. the best capes and shear profiles for severe weather will be over far ne oh and nw pa and will continue with a few hours of likely pops there. further west expect to see mainly scattered showers and storms for a few hours this evening. if this activity doesn't get going by 22z or so...much of the area could end up being dry tonight. either way it should be mainly dry after midnight. have lowered precip chances most areas for tonight from the earlier forecasts. && short term /6 am thursday morning through saturday night/... the cold front is expected to stall just to the south of the area on thursday. the models are dry for tomorrow but given the proximity of the front am not comfortable pulling precip from the forecast. the morning hours should be dry however. precip chances will diminish during the evening and the remainder of the night will be dry. that's when things get interesting as the warm front is expected to lift back north across the area on friday. will see a warm and very humid airmass spread back across the area with showers and thunderstorms breaking out during the day. the front will get close to the lake and then slow down meaning the local area will be in a favorable location for continued redevelopment. the gfs is showing model run qpfs of nearly 3 inches by late sunday. this is probably overdone but most of the area should see precip from time to time from friday afternoon through early sunday. do not think saturday will be a complete wash out but am confident that it will rain at some point. have bumped precip chances to likely for both friday and night and saturday. it may dry out saturday night for a time as the front tries to move back south but still think we need at least chance wording. guidance temps are in the ballpark. && long term /sunday through wednesday/... warm humid and unsettled weather will continue into the first part of next week. lingering/wavering front will still be in the vicinity until late in the week. therefore the forecast still is fairly generic with 30 to 50 percent chances spread throughout the extended. there are signs that the ridge builds enough that precip chances would not be more than scattered until stronger forcing moves through. that may be a cold front on tuesday. if the timing holds then precip chances could be raised for that day. will continue with the above normal high temperatures and the mild/warm nights. && aviation /18z wednesday through monday/... scattered showers and thunderstorms over the region have diminished in intensity and coverage since late this morning.the band of clouds associated with this convection has thinned. the timing of this late morning or early afternoon convection has disrupted the typically timing of convective development. as cin diminishes over the next few hours and cape increases especially over northwest ohio...expect some redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms. with dcape increasing to the 1200-1400 range some storms may have intense downdrafts/downbursts. expect activity over northwest ohio around 22-23z with gradual progression east and weakening. with some uncertainty in location and timing have just included vcts or vcsh at taf sites. overnight the weak cold front will settle southward across the region by morning. southwest winds of 15-25 knots will diminish by 00z and become light north to northeast by morning. outlook...areas of non-vfr fri thru sun with sct shra/tsra. && marine... the weather on the lake will be unsettled over the next several days with opportunities for thunderstorms. a cold front northwest of the lake...across lake michigan and western lake huron...will sink south to the vicinity of the lake tonight. with a moderate southwest flow on the lake the small craft advisory will continue as scheduled this evening. winds are expected to diminish later this evening and also shift around to the north. this front will stay in the vicinity of the lake through the weekend...at times lifting north of the lake and at others sinking southward. right now it looks like it shift back north of the lake on friday...but be brought south again by a wave on the front friday night. the next push northward will be either sunday or sunday night. winds will shift several times through early next week with this front not flushing out of the area until next week. other than within thunderstorms and this evening...winds do not appear to be enough to create small craft advisory conditions through monday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez147>149. small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for lez142>146. && $$ synopsis...kubina near term...kubina short term...kubina long term...oudeman aviation...laplante marine...kec/oudeman hr. md 0963 concerning severe potential...watch possible for nrn il/ind...srn mi...nwrn oh mesoscale discussion 0963 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0351 pm cdt wed jun 10 2015 areas affected...nrn il/ind...srn mi...nwrn oh concerning...severe potential...watch possible valid 102051z - 102245z probability of watch issuance...40 percent summary...isolated severe hail/wind may develop for a few hours centered between 22-01z with scattered tstms expected to form along a slow-moving cold front. discussion...20z surface analysis placed a cold front from the thumb of lower mi swwd to chicagoland and the ia/mo border area. most of this boundary resides on the fringe of moderate mid-level w/nwlys to the sw of a strong jet centered across nrn lower mi/lk huron. this should be compensated by increasingly large instability with wrn extent to the ms valley. 1-min visible satellite imagery has sampled cu increasing along the front with most cams suggesting scattered tstm development into early evening. large hail and severe wind will be the main hazards...but uncertainty does exist in the degree of sustained organized storms. the relatively best combination of cape/shear may be confined across srn lower mi into nern ind/nwrn oh per modified 18z dtx raob. the entire corridor of the front will be monitored for one or more severe tstm watches. ..grams/hart.. 06/10/2015 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...dtx...iwx...grr...lot...ilx...dvn... lat...lon 41149106 41598910 41718777 41718716 41968595 42248405 42168305 41548305 41218355 40888555 40728783 40699007 40639106 40899145 41149106 !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd0963.gif! hr. Last Update: Jun 10, 2015 6:59 pm Overnight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8am and 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 68. Southwest wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%.