h1. toledo weather sun jun 21 2015 #toledo #weather the morning HWO did not mention a risk for storms on Monday even though the SPC's Day 2 convective outlook showed the Toleod area barely contained within the Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. The Day 2 convective outlook is the same. I think someone on a later shift at the Cle NWS realized the earlier miss. Maybe a person remembered that Lucas County is part of the Cle NWS's CWA. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 1124 am edt sun jun 21 2015 for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...this afternoon and tonight. hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .days two through seven...monday through saturday. there is a chance for severe storms later monday and monday night. severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central great lakes on monday. these storms will likely move toward lake erie. it is uncertain at this time how long and how far east the severe storms will persist. the best chance for severe storms appears to be across northwest ohio. wind damage and large hail will be the greatest threat although a tornado is possible. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be necessary monday or monday night. hr. spc ac 210602 day 2 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 0102 am cdt sun jun 21 2015 !https://farm1.staticflickr.com/444/18402429664_3c19a3b578.jpg! valid 221200z - 231200z ...there is an enh risk of svr tstms across parts of far se mn...wi...lake michigan and lower mi... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across parts of the upper ms valley and great lakes region... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of the nrn plains...mid to upper ms valley...great lakes region and nrn oh valley... ...summary... severe thunderstorms will be possible across the upper mississippi valley and great lakes region on monday where a few tornadoes...damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail may occur. a threat for strong tornadoes and wind gusts of greater than 65 knots will be possible. marginally severe thunderstorms may occur across the mid missouri valley...mid to upper mississippi valley and northern ohio valley. ...upper ms valley/great lakes region... a vigorous upper-level trough will move ewd across the nrn plains into the upper ms valley on monday as an impressive 60 to 80 kt mid-level jet overspreads the upper ms valley and great lakes region. at the sfc...a low is forecast to move quickly newd from the mid mo valley into the great lakes region as a cold front advances sewd into the upper ms valley. ahead of the front...a very moist airmass should be in place with sfc dewpoints in the lower 70s f which should enable moderate to strong instability to develop across much of the mid to upper ms valley by afternoon. in addition to the strong instability...model forecasts show impressive shear profiles and an upper-level system that appears quite organized with a well-defined low to mid-level jet couplet. this could result in a significant event occurring across parts of the upper ms valley and great lakes region on monday. considering the nam...gfs and ecmwf models...the nam and gfs appear to the be most aggressive solutions while the ecmwf is slightly more conservative concerning the amount of instability...shear and organization with the upper-level system. many problems exist for determining the most likely corridor for severe including 1) how morning convection will impact the setup in the afternoon and 2) how far north will the capping inversion impede convective development. the current thinking is that a morning mcs with wind damage potential will track esewd from ern mn and ern ia across srn wi...nrn il and into ind around midday. further west behind the morning mcs...an axis of strong instability will develop from nrn mo nwd into ern ia with new convection initiating on the nrn end of the strong instability in far se mn and nwrn wi during the afternoon. this convection should move ewd and gradually grow upscale. nam forecast soundings at 21z on monday for madison wi show impressive thermodynamics and shear profiles with mlcape above 4000 j/kg and 0-6 km shear from 60 to 70 kt. this would be very favorable for severe storms including supercells. it seems possible that a cluster of supercells could organize during the mid to late afternoon...moving ewd across cntrl and ern wi and crossing lake mi into lower mi by early evening. strong low-level shear could support a threat for strong tornadoes and a long-track tornado can not be ruled out. the other possibility is for a severe wind producing linear mcs that moves quickly esewd across wi during the late afternoon reaching lower mi by early evening. due to the possibility of a high-end event for either tornadoes or wind damage...the enhanced area will be expanded to include most of wi and lower mi with the significant hatched area also including sern mn. ..broyles.. 06/21/2015 click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z hr. !https://farm1.staticflickr.com/384/19023513982_66d9105399.jpg! spc ac 211732 day 2 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1232 pm cdt sun jun 21 2015 valid 221200z - 231200z ...there is an enh risk of svr tstms great lakes and upper ms valley... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from the upper midwest to lower great lakes... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of the n-cntrl/ne states... ...summary... scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the upper mississippi valley and great lakes regions...some of which should be intense...mainly from midday through the evening on monday. ...upper ms valley/great lakes... strongly considered an upgrade to moderate risk with potential for clusters of intense severe storms with all significant severe hazards possible. but will defer given enough uncertainty with regard to evolution of late d1 convection with its subsequent effect on the degree of downstream diurnal destabilization...along with timing of the pair of mid-level shortwave impulses with respect to peak heating. guidance is consistent in depicting strengthening low/mid-tropospheric flow in response to a convectively-generated mcv from late d1/early d2 and approach of an upstream shortwave trough currently over the srn canadian rockies. these features would enhance low-level waa of the richly buoyant air mass currently present over the lower mo valley. available cams vary markedly with the daytime evolution of an mcs expected to be ongoing across parts of srn mn/nrn ia. it seems plausible that this activity should persist through the day with an organized severe risk on the edge of a robust plains eml. this type of scenario may result in lead convection outpacing the more favorable thermodynamic environment characterized by rather steep mid-level lapse rates and very large buoyancy. at least scattered upstream tstm development should occur by late afternoon along the cold front from cntrl/ern wi sw to the ia/il border area as convergence along the front and diabatic heating overcome inhibition due to the initially stout eml. supercells are expected in initial stages of development...with some of this convection growing upscale during the evening. with low-level flow becoming increasingly veered in the wake of the lead mid-level impulse...main hazards with sw extent should be very large hail transitioning to predominately severe wind. where 850 mb winds can remain quite strong with enlarged low-level hodographs /most likely in ern wi to lower mi/...a risk for strong tornadoes and/or significant severe wind gusts may develop. ..grams.. 06/21/2015 click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z hr. At early Sun afternoon, Jun 21, the "SPC":http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ increased the sizes for Slight Risk and Enhanced Risk, regarding chances for severe weather for Mon, Jun 22. The biggest chances for severe weather remain north and west of Toledo. Forecast issued at 1:32 p.m. EDT on Sun, Jun 21 for Mon, Jun 22 !https://farm1.staticflickr.com/384/19023513982_66d9105399_z.jpg! br. Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point on Mon, Jun 22. !https://farm1.staticflickr.com/476/18409257553_e61480bd73_z.jpg! br. Excerpts from the 1:32 p.m., Sun, Jun 21 Day 2 Convective Outlook for Mon, Jun 22: q. strongly considered an upgrade to moderate risk with potential for clusters of intense severe storms with all significant severe hazards possible. but will defer given enough uncertainty ... ... most likely in ern wi to *lower mi/* ...a risk for strong tornadoes and/or significant severe wind gusts may develop. q.. br. This afternoon's version of the Day 2 Convective Outlook seemed a little less ominous than the Day 2 forecast that was issued very early this morning. q. ... this would be very favorable for severe storms including *supercells.* it seems possible that a cluster of supercells could organize during the mid to late afternoon [Monday] ...moving ewd across cntrl and ern wi and crossing lake mi into *lower mi by early evening.* strong low-level shear could support a threat for strong tornadoes and *a long-track tornado* can not be ruled out. the other possibility is for a severe wind producing linear mcs that moves quickly esewd across wi during the late afternoon *reaching lower mi by early evening.* q.. br. It does appear that the weather could be bumpy on Monday over the western half of Michigan's lower peninsula. It's uncertain if a thunderstorm cluster will remain strong enough to be severe by the time it reaches the Toledo area on Monday evening. Excerpts from the 11:24 a.m., Sun, Jun 21 Hazardous Weather Outlook, issued by the Cle NWS: q. severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central great lakes on monday. these storms will likely move toward lake erie. it is uncertain at this time how long and how far east the severe storms will persist. the best chance for severe storms appears to be *across northwest ohio.* wind damage and large hail will be the greatest threat although a tornado is possible. --[SKYWARN]-- spotter activation may be necessary monday or monday night. q..