h1. toledo weather mon jun 22 2015 spc ac 220558 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1258 am cdt mon jun 22 2015 valid 221200z - 231200z ...there is an enh risk of svr tstms from the mid-upper ms valley ewd into lower mich... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over a large portion of the midwest and great lakes... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from ern ks into the northeastern u.s.... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over nrn parts of fl into the wrn carolinas... ...summary... scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the upper mississippi valley and great lakes regions...some of which should be intense...mainly from midday through the evening on monday. the threat for large to very large hail and a strong tornado appear to be greatest over southern wisconsin and northern illinois. ...upper ms valley/great lakes... considerable uncertainty remains regarding the forecast evolution of a severe mcs across the nrn plains into the upper ms valley prior to the start of the period. as a result...confidence for this severe forecast is tempered owing to several potentially critical variables 1) longevity/severity of early morning mcs from the ms valley into the great lakes 2) preferred storm mode /supercell and/or bow echo/. given relatively high uncertainty...will defer substantial changes to the next outlook. the primary shortwave trough will move from the nrn plains to lake superior during the day while a potential convectively-generated mcv evolves from squall line activity leading into the day 1 period. in the low levels...a reservoir of rich moisture over the lower to mid mo valley will advect n/newd into the mid ms valley/wrn great lakes during the morning owing partially to strong low-level waa. while it is possible for the early morning storms to continue ewd from the mid-upper ms valley into the cntrl great lakes...lessening buoyancy with ewd extent should serve to weaken this activity. a strong influx of low-level moisture /characterized by 16-18 g per kg lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratios/ will likely move into nrn il/wi vicinity along and to the s of trailing outflow and ahead of the approaching cold front. it is probable storm redevelopment /sctd coverage/ will occur later in the afternoon near the residual boundary over the wrn great lakes or along the front located over cntrl wi sw into ern ia. the strength of the deep layer shear vector /50-70 kt/ and its orientation to the boundary coupled with a very strong to extremely buoyant /3000-4500 j per kg mlcape/ boundary layer would promote explosive updraft development and a supercellular mode early in the storm lifecycle. all severe hazards would be possible with this activity...including significant hail/wind/tornado. further storm development along the front will favor a transition to a mixed mode and probably yield a wind/hail threat becoming predominate with time. storms should move downstream and into the srn and lower great lakes states overnight with the primary risk being isold large hail/wind. ...parts of the sern u.s... a flattened mid-level anticyclone will persist off the se u.s. and diurnally-driven storms will likely develop during the afternoon. a very weak wind profile will result in slow-moving pulse storms which will likely propagate on convective outflow. steepened low-level lapse rates owing to strong diabatic heating coupled with pw 1.75-2.0 inches will promote water loading with the more intense cores. wet microbursts capable of pockets of wind damage will be the primary threat and this activity will diminish during the early evening. ..smith/rogers.. 06/22/2015 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z hr. According to the 1:58 a.m. SPC update, the main threat for severe weather remains to the north and west of Toledo. And it seems that some aspects for severe weather have decreased for Michigan. The main risk for tornadoes and large hail exists over southern WI, northern IL, and eastern IA. But it appears that the NWS won't know for sure until mid-day. Excerpts from the 1:58 a.m., Mon, Jun 22 Day 1 Convective Outlook: q. ...upper ms valley/great lakes... *considerable uncertainty remains* regarding the forecast evolution of a severe mcs across the nrn plains into the upper ms valley prior to the start of the period. as a result... confidence for this severe forecast is tempered owing to several potentially critical variables 1) longevity/severity of early morning mcs from the ms valley into the great lakes 2) preferred storm mode /supercell and/or bow echo/. given relatively high uncertainty... *will defer substantial changes to the next outlook.* the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z [9:00 a.m. EDT] q.. br. !https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3767/18425440393_eb989ee46a_z.jpg! br. Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. !https://farm1.staticflickr.com/400/18425440373_97340c7579_z.jpg! br. Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. !https://farm1.staticflickr.com/412/18425440343_be6e8f1ffc_z.jpg! br. Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. !https://farm1.staticflickr.com/327/18425440283_1530f8ec90_z.jpg! hr.