Toledo weather tue jun 23 2015

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md 1129 concerning severe potential...watch possible for parts of nrn oh


mesoscale discussion 1129
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0143 am cdt tue jun 23 2015

areas affected...parts of nrn oh

concerning...severe potential...watch possible 

valid 230643z - 230845z

probability of watch issuance...40 percent

summary...a band of storms...currently located in southeast lower
mi...will continue to move to the ese at 40-45 kt exiting this
portion of ww 338 by 07z...and moving into the northern tier of oh
counties /along the south shore of lake erie/ between 07-08z. there
remains some uncertainty with the potential strength of these storms
after they cross lake erie...but a ww is being considered if
convective trends suggest storm intensities are not diminishing.

discussion...at 0620z...mosaic radar imagery showed a short band of
storms extending from far southwest ontario into far southeast lower
mi with this activity comprised of a recent merger of cold pool
enhanced storms with the activity tracking to the ese at 40-45 kt. 
at this speed...damaging winds remain a threat prior to these storms
exiting ww 338 at 07z. 

most convective allowing models suggest this current line of storms
moves across lake erie with some weakening trend. the downstream
environment across nrn ohio remains moderately unstable beneath the
ern extent of steep midlevel lapse rates. this combined with some
weak low-level waa and continued height falls as a shortwave trough
progresses ewd across northern ontario and the great lakes should
sustain storms as they move into northern oh. the degree of
near-surface stabilization is more uncertain which affects the
confidence in how intense this activity will be as it moves to the
ese. objective analyses suggest surface-based inhibition is
weak...and could support strong to severe wind gusts reaching the
surface. this potential is further enhanced by a band of strong wly
winds /50 kt/ between 1-3 km per kiwx vad/ spreading ewd and
potentially reaching the surface within any stronger downdrafts.

..peters/mead.. 06/23/2015

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...dtx...iwx...

lat...lon 41418453 41938346 42258257 42128148 41828087 41428099
41108130 40948211 40918269 40938348 41118402 41418453