Toledo weather tue jun 23 2015 #toledo #weather !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd1129.gif! md 1129 concerning severe potential...watch possible for parts of nrn oh mesoscale discussion 1129 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0143 am cdt tue jun 23 2015 areas affected...parts of nrn oh concerning...severe potential...watch possible valid 230643z - 230845z probability of watch issuance...40 percent summary...a band of storms...currently located in southeast lower mi...will continue to move to the ese at 40-45 kt exiting this portion of ww 338 by 07z...and moving into the northern tier of oh counties /along the south shore of lake erie/ between 07-08z. there remains some uncertainty with the potential strength of these storms after they cross lake erie...but a ww is being considered if convective trends suggest storm intensities are not diminishing. discussion...at 0620z...mosaic radar imagery showed a short band of storms extending from far southwest ontario into far southeast lower mi with this activity comprised of a recent merger of cold pool enhanced storms with the activity tracking to the ese at 40-45 kt. at this speed...damaging winds remain a threat prior to these storms exiting ww 338 at 07z. most convective allowing models suggest this current line of storms moves across lake erie with some weakening trend. the downstream environment across nrn ohio remains moderately unstable beneath the ern extent of steep midlevel lapse rates. this combined with some weak low-level waa and continued height falls as a shortwave trough progresses ewd across northern ontario and the great lakes should sustain storms as they move into northern oh. the degree of near-surface stabilization is more uncertain which affects the confidence in how intense this activity will be as it moves to the ese. objective analyses suggest surface-based inhibition is weak...and could support strong to severe wind gusts reaching the surface. this potential is further enhanced by a band of strong wly winds /50 kt/ between 1-3 km per kiwx vad/ spreading ewd and potentially reaching the surface within any stronger downdrafts. ..peters/mead.. 06/23/2015 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...dtx...iwx... lat...lon 41418453 41938346 42258257 42128148 41828087 41428099 41108130 40948211 40918269 40938348 41118402 41418453 hr. Areal Flood Warning Statement as of 1:55 AM EDT on June 23, 2015 ... A Flood Warning remains in effect until 1115 am EDT Tuesday for southwestern Eaton... southern Barry... northern Kalamazoo... northern Calhoun... southern Allegan and northern Van Buren counties... At 146 am EDT... Doppler radar indicated storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches across the warned area. The heaviest amounts fell from Richland to Gull Lake and Bedford... extending east toward Springport and Rives Junction. Numerous roads are likely water covered with portions of some roads impassable. Alternate routes may be needed through the morning commute... so delays are possible on routes such as M-89... M-78... and M-99 where areas of flooding are likely occurring. Water should gradually recede later this morning. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Kalamazoo... Battle Creek... Charlotte... Albion... Marshall... Allegan... South Haven... Plainwell... Eastwood... Westwood... Springfield... Otsego... Galesburg... Bangor... Bellevue... Richland... Martin... greater Galesburg... Brownlee Park and Level Park-Oak Park. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. If flooding is observed act quickly. Move up to higher ground to escape flood waters. Do not stay in areas subject to flooding when water begins rising.