Toledo weather sat jun 27 2015 #toledo #weather lakeshore hazard message national weather service cleveland oh 1159 pm edt fri jun 26 2015 ...strong northeast winds to 35 knots saturday may result in lakeshore flooding... ohz003-007-009-271200- /o.new.kcle.ls.a.0001.150627t1100z-150628t0200z/ /o.con.kcle.bh.s.0004.150627t0800z-150628t1300z/ lucas-ottawa-erie oh- 1159 pm edt fri jun 26 2015 ...beach hazards statement remains in effect from 4 am edt saturday through sunday morning... ...lakeshore flood watch in effect from 7 am edt saturday through saturday evening... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a lakeshore flood watch...which is in effect from 7 am edt saturday through saturday evening. * lake shore flooding...strong northeast winds to 35 knots will develop saturday and may result in flooding along the lakeshore. * hazards...coastal flooding and dangerous swimming conditions. * timing...dangerous swimming conditions will occur from 4 am saturday morning through sunday morning. the coastal flooding threat will begin at 7am saturday morning and end at 10pm saturday evening. * location...the lakeshore from from lucas county to cuyahoga county * impacts...large waves will cause rip currents to develop. rising water levels due to driving winds may result flooding along the lakeshore. precautionary/preparedness actions... swimming risk exists saturday. the combination of wind and or waves will make for potentially dangerous conditions for swimmers including the risk of rip currents. follow the instruction of local authorities or stay out of the water. a lakeshore flood watch means lakeshore flooding will occur if weather develops as expected. people in the watch area should be ready to move to safe ground if flooding occurs or if warnings are issued. stay tuned to local radio...television...or noaa weather radio to keep informed of the latest situation. && $$ beach hazards statement lakeshore hazard message national weather service cleveland oh 1159 pm edt fri jun 26 2015 ...strong northeast winds to 35 knots saturday may result in lakeshore flooding... ohz003-007-009-271200- /o.new.kcle.ls.a.0001.150627t1100z-150628t0200z/ /o.con.kcle.bh.s.0004.150627t0800z-150628t1300z/ lucas-ottawa-erie oh- 1159 pm edt fri jun 26 2015 ...beach hazards statement remains in effect from 4 am edt saturday through sunday morning... ...lakeshore flood watch in effect from 7 am edt saturday through saturday evening... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a lakeshore flood watch...which is in effect from 7 am edt saturday through saturday evening. * lake shore flooding...strong northeast winds to 35 knots will develop saturday and may result in flooding along the lakeshore. * hazards...coastal flooding and dangerous swimming conditions. * timing...dangerous swimming conditions will occur from 4 am saturday morning through sunday morning. the coastal flooding threat will begin at 7am saturday morning and end at 10pm saturday evening. * location...the lakeshore from from lucas county to cuyahoga county * impacts...large waves will cause rip currents to develop. rising water levels due to driving winds may result flooding along the lakeshore. precautionary/preparedness actions... swimming risk exists saturday. the combination of wind and or waves will make for potentially dangerous conditions for swimmers including the risk of rip currents. follow the instruction of local authorities or stay out of the water. a lakeshore flood watch means lakeshore flooding will occur if weather develops as expected. people in the watch area should be ready to move to safe ground if flooding occurs or if warnings are issued. stay tuned to local radio...television...or noaa weather radio to keep informed of the latest situation. && $$ flood watch flood watch national weather service cleveland oh 927 pm edt fri jun 26 2015 ...flood threat saturday from an unseasonably strong storm... a strong low pressure system will develop tonight and track up the ohio valley and deepen over northern ohio on saturday. rain is expected to overspread the region tonight and become heavy toward morning. moderate to heavy rain is expected over most of the region on saturday. the low will be slow moving...and an excessive amount of rain will fall across the area within a relatively short time frame. ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-270930- /o.con.kcle.fa.a.0003.000000t0000z-150628t0800z/ /00000.0.er.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage- trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning- marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie- southern erie-crawford pa- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon... jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron... ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield... ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead... millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro... meadville 927 pm edt fri jun 26 2015 ...flood watch remains in effect through late saturday night... the flood watch continues for * portions of ohio and northwest pennsylvania...including the following areas...in ohio...ashland...ashtabula inland... ashtabula lakeshore...crawford...cuyahoga...erie oh...geauga... hancock...holmes...huron...knox...lake...lorain...lucas... mahoning...marion...medina...morrow...ottawa...portage... richland...sandusky...seneca...stark...summit...trumbull... wayne...wood and wyandot. in northwest pennsylvania...crawford pa...northern erie and southern erie. * through late saturday night * a slow moving low pressure will deepen across the area then linger through sunday...bringing steady rains. in general a widespread 1.5 to 3 inches of rain will fall by late saturday night with locally higher amounts in thunderstorms. with saturated soil...expect a rapid rise of creeks and even rivers on saturday. * flooding...especially in urban areas...can occur very quickly...primarily at underpasses and poor drainage areas. quick rises on area creeks and streams will be likely from the heavy rainfall. precautionary/preparedness actions... a flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. you should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or updates && $$ hazardous weather outlook hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 924 pm edt fri jun 26 2015 ohz003-007-009>011-280130- lucas-ottawa-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga- 924 pm edt fri jun 26 2015 ...flood watch in effect through late saturday night... ...beach hazards statement in effect from 4 am edt saturday through sunday morning... this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. flood watch. beach hazards statement. .days two through seven...saturday through thursday. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. flood watch. beach hazards statement. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ hr. Toledo Weather Back lakeshore hazard message national weather service cleveland oh 353 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ...strong northeast winds to 35 knots saturday may result in lakeshore flooding... ohz003-007-009-271600- /o.upg.kcle.ls.a.0001.150627t1100z-150628t0200z/ /o.new.kcle.ls.w.0001.150627t1200z-150628t0200z/ /o.ext.kcle.bh.s.0004.150627t1300z-150628t1300z/ lucas-ottawa-erie oh- 353 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ...lakeshore flood warning in effect from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt this evening... ...beach hazards statement now in effect from 9 am edt this morning through sunday morning... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a lakeshore flood warning...which is in effect from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt this evening. the lakeshore flood watch is no longer in effect. * lake shore flooding...strong northeast winds to 35 knots will develop saturday and may result in flooding along the lakeshore. * hazards...coastal flooding and dangerous swimming conditions. * timing...dangerous swimming conditions will occur from 4 am saturday morning through sunday morning. the coastal flooding threat will begin at 8am saturday morning and end at 10pm saturday evening. * location...the lakeshore from from lucas county to erie county ohio * impacts...large waves will cause rip currents to develop. rising water levels due to driving winds may result flooding along the lakeshore. precautionary/preparedness actions... swimming risk exists saturday. the combination of wind and or waves will make for potentially dangerous conditions for swimmers including the risk of rip currents. follow the instruction of local authorities or stay out of the water. a lakeshore flood warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring, is imminent, or is expected to occur within the next 12 hours. people in the warning area should take immediate action to protect life and property. listen to local radio...television... or noaa weather radio for further information. swimming risk exists today. the combination of wind and or waves will make for potentially dangerous conditions for swimmers including the risk of rip currents. follow the instruction of local authorities or stay out of the water. hr. flood watch national weather service cleveland oh 432 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ...flood threat continues into tonight... low pressure will strengthen as it slowly moves into northern ohio today. widespread rain has spread into the area this morning and will remain steady across extreme northwest ohio. showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast ohio by early afternoon with high rainfall rates possible. much of the area will receive between one and a half and two and a half inches of rain through tonight. this amount of rainfall will be excessive and lead to flooding in some areas through tonight...especially those that have received high amounts of rain over the last week. ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-271645- /o.con.kcle.fa.a.0003.000000t0000z-150628t0800z/ /00000.0.er.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage- trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning- marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie- southern erie-crawford pa- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon... jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron... ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield... ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead... millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro... meadville 432 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ...flood watch remains in effect through late tonight... the flood watch continues for * portions of ohio and northwest pennsylvania...including the following areas...in ohio...ashland...ashtabula inland... ashtabula lakeshore...crawford...cuyahoga...erie oh...geauga... hancock...holmes...huron...knox...lake...lorain...lucas... mahoning...marion...medina...morrow...ottawa...portage... richland...sandusky...seneca...stark...summit...trumbull... wayne...wood and wyandot. in northwest pennsylvania...crawford pa...northern erie and southern erie. * through late tonight * a slow moving low pressure system will strengthen across the area today then slowly exit to the east on sunday. steady rainfall is expected in northwest ohio with periods of showers and thunderstorms in northeast ohio. widespread rainfall of 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain will fall by late tonight. given the recent wet conditions...flooding will likely develop in some areas. * flooding...especially in urban areas...can occur very quickly...primarily at underpasses and poor drainage areas. rises on area creeks and streams will occur and may be running at high capacity from the heavy rainfall. precautionary/preparedness actions... a flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. you should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or updates && $$ hazardous weather outlook hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 508 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ohz003-007-009-280915- lucas-ottawa-erie oh- 508 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ...flood watch in effect through late tonight... ...lakeshore flood warning in effect until 10 pm edt this evening... ...beach hazards statement in effect from this evening through sunday morning... this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. flood watch. lakeshore flood warning. beach hazards statement. .days two through seven...sunday through friday. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. beach hazards statement. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed. reports of rainfall or flooding are appreciated. $$ beach hazards statement lakeshore hazard message national weather service cleveland oh 353 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ...strong northeast winds to 35 knots saturday may result in lakeshore flooding... ohz003-007-009-271600- /o.upg.kcle.ls.a.0001.150627t1100z-150628t0200z/ /o.new.kcle.ls.w.0001.150627t1200z-150628t0200z/ /o.ext.kcle.bh.s.0004.150627t1300z-150628t1300z/ lucas-ottawa-erie oh- 353 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ...lakeshore flood warning in effect from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt this evening... ...beach hazards statement now in effect from 9 am edt this morning through sunday morning... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a lakeshore flood warning...which is in effect from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt this evening. the lakeshore flood watch is no longer in effect. * lake shore flooding...strong northeast winds to 35 knots will develop saturday and may result in flooding along the lakeshore. * hazards...coastal flooding and dangerous swimming conditions. * timing...dangerous swimming conditions will occur from 4 am saturday morning through sunday morning. the coastal flooding threat will begin at 8am saturday morning and end at 10pm saturday evening. * location...the lakeshore from from lucas county to erie county ohio * impacts...large waves will cause rip currents to develop. rising water levels due to driving winds may result flooding along the lakeshore. precautionary/preparedness actions... swimming risk exists saturday. the combination of wind and or waves will make for potentially dangerous conditions for swimmers including the risk of rip currents. follow the instruction of local authorities or stay out of the water. a lakeshore flood warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring, is imminent, or is expected to occur within the next 12 hours. people in the warning area should take immediate action to protect life and property. listen to local radio...television... or noaa weather radio for further information. swimming risk exists today. the combination of wind and or waves will make for potentially dangerous conditions for swimmers including the risk of rip currents. follow the instruction of local authorities or stay out of the water. && $$ lakeshore flood warning lakeshore hazard message national weather service cleveland oh 353 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ...strong northeast winds to 35 knots saturday may result in lakeshore flooding... ohz003-007-009-271600- /o.upg.kcle.ls.a.0001.150627t1100z-150628t0200z/ /o.new.kcle.ls.w.0001.150627t1200z-150628t0200z/ /o.ext.kcle.bh.s.0004.150627t1300z-150628t1300z/ lucas-ottawa-erie oh- 353 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ...lakeshore flood warning in effect from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt this evening... ...beach hazards statement now in effect from 9 am edt this morning through sunday morning... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a lakeshore flood warning...which is in effect from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt this evening. the lakeshore flood watch is no longer in effect. * lake shore flooding...strong northeast winds to 35 knots will develop saturday and may result in flooding along the lakeshore. * hazards...coastal flooding and dangerous swimming conditions. * timing...dangerous swimming conditions will occur from 4 am saturday morning through sunday morning. the coastal flooding threat will begin at 8am saturday morning and end at 10pm saturday evening. * location...the lakeshore from from lucas county to erie county ohio * impacts...large waves will cause rip currents to develop. rising water levels due to driving winds may result flooding along the lakeshore. precautionary/preparedness actions... swimming risk exists saturday. the combination of wind and or waves will make for potentially dangerous conditions for swimmers including the risk of rip currents. follow the instruction of local authorities or stay out of the water. a lakeshore flood warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring, is imminent, or is expected to occur within the next 12 hours. people in the warning area should take immediate action to protect life and property. listen to local radio...television... or noaa weather radio for further information. swimming risk exists today. the combination of wind and or waves will make for potentially dangerous conditions for swimmers including the risk of rip currents. follow the instruction of local authorities or stay out of the water. && $$ hr. link fxus61 kcle 270919 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 519 am edt sat jun 27 2015 synopsis... an unseasonably strong low pressure system will occlude over north central ohio bring areas of heavy rain today. the low makes slow eastward progress into sunday before finally pulling away to the east coast. a ridge will build over the ohio valley sunday night followed by the next low pressure system moving through the central great lakes on monday night. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... flood watch remains in effect until 4 am sunday as rain associated with an unseasonably strong low pressure system slowly moves through the region. a coastal flood warning has also been issued for lucas/ottawa/erie counties due to the long duration of gale force ne winds on lake erie. low pressure will track to north central ohio by 18z with the system going through the occlusion process this afternoon. 00z gfs remains a fast outlier with the eastward progression of the low...while the nam/sref/rap still show the low over north central ohio by 00z...with the gem/ecmwf in the middle. the deepening upper level trough to the west with strong divergence aloft over se michigan favor the westward position of the low. stratiform rain on the north flank of the system will remain across nw ohio for much of the day. meanwhile more intense rainfall with increasing thunderstorms will start to fill in across the warm sector in south central ohio...quickly moving across northeast ohio ahead of the mid- level dry slot that will extend all the way to erie pa by mid afternoon. breaks in the precipitation will follow behind the dry slot but will not rule out some additional development along the occluded front. thus far the highest rainfall has been across northwest ohio with around 1.4 inches at fdy through 08z. the steady rain has actually lifted north of findlay now. rainfall has been slow to arrive in northeast ohio/nw pa but is expected to fill in and strengthen through the morning. qpf amounts will range from around an inch and a half to two and a half inches or locally higher. given the wet antecedent conditions...the threat for flooding will continue into tonight. the storm prediction center has also brought the slight riske for severe storms into the ne ohio...including the akron and youngstown areas. a lesser threat of severe weather extends to the north and west. instability may be a limiting factor for severe weather but forcing ahead of the dry slot will give storms a boost. shear is plentiful and an isolated tornado will even be possible as the warm front lifts north into the area and then occludes. rivers will rise from the recent rainfall and numerous rivers are forecast to go into flood. the faster responding rivers such as eagle creek at findlay/independence/eagle creek phalanx station will be some of the first. northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts are expected in nw ohio downwind of lake erie. persistent channelling down the long fetch of the lake will lead to rising water levels. water levels are expected to come up by at least 3 feet from recent levels by noon...on top of already high recent lake levels. a coastal flood warning has been issued for lucas/ottawa/and erie counties through 10pm. saturated soils in this area could also contribute to trees being toppled...even with the sub-advisory level winds. && short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/... a swath of rain associated with the mid-level deformation and frontogenesis on the back side of the low will linger across extreme nw ohio through the evening before starting to decrease and pull east overnight. additional rainfall tonight could be as much as a half inch across north central ohio. although rain will start to taper off in many areas overnight...run-off will continue and new flooding may still develop. sunday night will be the dry period before another low pressure system drops into the western great lakes through the northwest flow. rain will spread east across the area again on monday afternoon and continue monday night. rainfall will generally be a half inch or less with this system. && long term /wednesday through friday/... trough ridge couplets continue to be the story in the extended forecast. wed morning a trough will be exiting the region with residual showers and thunderstorms. by thu a shallow shortwave ridge aloft will facilitate sfc high pressure...keeping pops low into the first half of friday. by friday night the ridge will be pushing of the new england coast and another shortwave will be diving across the midsection of the country. this wave will become increasingly amplified as it slowly propogates east through sunday. showers and storms will be highlighted during this period as the trough axis approaches. as is typically the case...the models begin to diverge by day 7. the day 6 and 7 forecast is a compromise between the gfs and ec. && aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/... the leading edge of mvfr cigs now extends back across northern hancock county se...just to the east of columbus. this stratus deck will advance ne through the overnight and by 14z today all terminals will be mvfr or lower. rain showers will increase in covereage and intensity later this morning through the first part of the afternoon...and cigs will periodically drop into the ifr category with shra. vis should remain mostly mvfr with the exception of br and the heaviest of rain showers. overall not expecting much in the way of thunder saturday. best chance remains across the easternmost terminals where instability remains highest. sat night expect br to develop with the possibility of lifr cigs and borderline ifr vis. lastly...sfc wind will gust to over 30 knots at times saturday afternoon acorss nw oh. keri will also get very gusty. the remaining terminals will be windy as well...but won't get quite as gusty. outlook...widespread non vfr expected saturday evening through sunday in widespread rain. non vfr expected again monday and monday night and wednesday. && marine... it will not be a good weekend for boating on lake erie. waves will build to 9 to 12 feet on the open lake as a surface low bottoms out near the southern shore today. strong east to northeast flow will develop today in response to the low...becoming gale force by afternoon. lakeshore flooding is a real concern given the current water levels/trends on the lake. a lakeshore flood warning has been issued for lucas/ottawa/erie counties. speeds should diminish after midnight allowing water levels to recover. westerly flow will develop on sunday. a ridge will cross the lake on monday briefly changing the flow to southerly. another low will cross the lake monday night into tuesday with winds again becoming westerly. will likely need small craft headlines behind this system. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...beach hazards statement from 9 am edt this morning through sunday morning for ohz003-007-009>012-089. flood watch through late tonight for ohz003-006>014-017>023- 027>033-036>038-047-089. lakeshore flood warning until 10 pm edt this evening for ohz003-007-009. pa...beach hazards statement from 9 am edt this morning through sunday morning for paz001. flood watch through late tonight for paz001>003. marine...gale warning until 3 am edt sunday for lez142>146-162>166. gale warning from 11 am this morning to 3 am edt sunday for lez147>149-167>169. && $$ synopsis...kec near term...kec short term...kec long term...mayers aviation...mayers marine...mayers hr. fzus51 kcle 270809 nshcle nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 409 am edt sat jun 27 2015 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142>146-271415- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh- 409 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ..gale warning in effect from 8 am edt this morning through late tonight... today...northeast winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots this afternoon. showers with isolated thunderstorms. waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. tonight...northeast gales to 35 knots becoming north to 30 knots overnight. rain showers. waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. sunday...north winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. rain showers likely in the morning...then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. sunday night...west winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. mostly cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. waves 1 to 3 feet. winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms. see lake erie open lakes forecast for monday through wednesday. the water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees...off cleveland 68 degrees and off erie 69 degrees. $$ lez147>149-271415- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 409 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ..gale warning in effect from 11 am edt this morning through late tonight... today...east winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots this afternoon. showers with isolated thunderstorms. waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. tonight...east winds to 30 knots becoming northeast 15 to 25 knots. rain showers. waves 5 to 8 feet. sunday...northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. rain showers in the morning...then rain showers likely in the afternoon. waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. sunday night...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. mostly cloudy. waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms. see lake erie open lakes forecast for monday through wednesday. the water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees...off cleveland 68 degrees and off erie 69 degrees. $$ hr. TOL: Jun 27, 2015 9:52 am Weather : Rain Fog/Mist Temperature : 59 F Humidity : 96% Wind Speed : NNE 18 mph - Gust 23 mph Barometer : 29.71 in Dewpoint: 58 F Visibility : 2.50 statute miles (formerly Metcalf Airport) Jun 27, 2015 9:53 am Weather : Light Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy Temperature : 63 F Humidity : 87% Wind Speed : NE 23 mph - Gust 33 mph Barometer : 29.71 in Dewpoint: 59 F Visibility : 6.00 statute miles (near Lambertville) Jun 27, 2015 9:54 am Weather : Light Rain Temperature : 60 F Humidity : 93% Wind Speed : NE 15 mph - Gust 25 mph Barometer : 29.73 in Dewpoint: 58 F Visibility : 7.00 statute miles hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jun 27, 2015 7:30 am Today: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 63. Breezy, with a north wind around 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Low around 56. Breezy, with a north wind 22 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Sunday: A chance of showers, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Breezy, with a northwest wind 17 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%. hr. fxus61 kcle 271158 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 758 am edt sat jun 27 2015 synopsis... an unseasonably strong low pressure system will occlude over north central ohio bringing areas of heavy rain today. the low makes slow eastward progress into sunday before finally pulling away to the east coast. a ridge will build over the ohio valley sunday night followed by the next low pressure system moving through the central great lakes on monday night. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... dry-slot is starting to move into our southwestern counties this morning. this may signal the end of the steady rain for some areas but expect bands of showers to continue to develop so will leave the flood watch in tact...especially since some of these areas have had 1-1.50 inches of rain already. showers today could easily bring another half inch of rain. the first river flood warning has been issued for eagle creek near findlay and more will follow as water makes its way into the river system. previous discussion...flood watch remains in effect until 4 am sunday as rain associated with an unseasonably strong low pressure system slowly moves through the region. a coastal flood warning has also been issued for lucas/ottawa/erie counties due to the long duration of gale force ne winds on lake erie. low pressure will track to north central ohio by 18z with the system going through the occlusion process this afternoon. 00z gfs remains a fast outlier with the eastward progression of the low...while the nam/sref/rap still show the low over north central ohio by 00z...with the gem/ecmwf in the middle. the deepening upper level trough to the west with strong divergence aloft over se michigan favor the westward position of the low. stratiform rain on the north flank of the system will remain across nw ohio for much of the day. meanwhile more intense rainfall with increasing thunderstorms will start to fill in across the warm and quickly move across northeast ohio ahead of the mid- level dry slot that will extend all the way to erie pa by mid afternoon. breaks in the precipitation will follow behind the dry slot but will not rule out some additional development along the occluded front. thus far the highest rainfall has been across northwest ohio with around 1.4 inches at fdy through 08z. the steady rain has actually lifted north of findlay now. rainfall has been slow to arrive in northeast ohio/nw pa but is expected to fill in and strengthen through the morning. qpf amounts will range from around an inch and a half to two and a half inches or locally higher. given the wet antecedent conditions...the threat for flooding will continue into tonight. the storm prediction center has also brought the slight riske for severe storms into the ne ohio...including the akron and youngstown areas. a lesser threat of severe weather extends to the north and west. instability may be a limiting factor for severe weather but forcing ahead of the dry slot will give storms a boost. shear is plentiful and an isolated tornado will even be possible as the warm front lifts north into the area and then occludes. rivers will rise from the recent rainfall and numerous rivers are forecast to go into flood. the faster responding rivers such as eagle creek at findlay/independence/eagle creek phalanx station will be some of the first. northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts are expected in nw ohio downwind of lake erie. persistent channelling down the long fetch of the lake will lead to rising water levels. water levels are expected to rise at least 3 feet from recent levels by noon...on top of already high lake levels. a coastal flood warning has been issued for lucas/ottawa/and erie counties through 10pm. saturated soils in this area could also contribute to trees being toppled...even with the sub-advisory level winds. && short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/... a swath of rain associated with the mid-level deformation and frontogenesis on the back side of the low will linger across extreme nw ohio through the evening before starting to decrease and pull east overnight. additional rainfall tonight could be as much as a half inch across north central ohio. although rain will start to taper off in many areas overnight...run-off will continue and new flooding may still develop. sunday night will be the dry period before another low pressure system drops into the western great lakes through the northwest flow. rain will spread east across the area again on monday afternoon and continue monday night. rainfall will generally be a half inch or less with this system. && long term /wednesday through friday/... trough ridge couplets continue to be the story in the extended forecast. wed morning a trough will be exiting the region with residual showers and thunderstorms. by thu a shallow shortwave ridge aloft will facilitate sfc high pressure...keeping pops low into the first half of friday. by friday night the ridge will be pushing of the new england coast and another shortwave will be diving across the midsection of the country. this wave will become increasingly amplified as it slowly propogates east through sunday. showers and storms will be highlighted during this period as the trough axis approaches. as is typically the case...the models begin to diverge by day 7. the day 6 and 7 forecast is a compromise between the gfs and ec. && aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/... all terminals are raining with the exception of keri. cigs have dropped to mostly ifr or lower across most of northern ohio with the rain. pockets of lifr cigs now stretch from kfdy...kmfd...and kcak. not expecting the cigs to improve much throughout the day. in fact...guidance hints at lifr cigs becoming more widespread. not ready to jump on this quite yet but hint at the possibility in the tafs with mention of sct decks less than 1k feet. the heaviest rain showers are now mostly on the northern and eastern sides of the low that is now centered across west-central ohio. expecting the rain to fill back in some around the low as it deepens. there will certainly be lulls in the shower activity throughout the afternoon...espcially from kmfd east. timing these breaks beyond the first six hours will be a challenge...at least initially. this is also where convection is most likely to get going this afternoon as well. the wind should continue to pick up through the day and gust to 30 knots or more at times. tonight the wind will diminish some and become less gusty. outlook...widespread non vfr expected saturday evening through sunday in widespread rain. non vfr expected again monday and monday night and wednesday. && marine... it will not be a good weekend for boating on lake erie. waves will build to 9 to 12 feet on the open lake as a surface low bottoms out near the southern shore today. strong east to northeast flow will develop today in response to the low...becoming gale force by afternoon. lakeshore flooding is a real concern given the current water levels/trends on the lake. a lakeshore flood warning has been issued for lucas/ottawa/erie counties. speeds should diminish after midnight allowing water levels to recover. westerly flow will develop on sunday. a ridge will cross the lake on monday briefly changing the flow to southerly. another low will cross the lake monday night into tuesday with winds again becoming westerly. will likely need small craft headlines behind this system. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...beach hazards statement through sunday morning for ohz003-007- 009>012-089. flood watch through late tonight for ohz003-006>014-017>023- 027>033-036>038-047-089. lakeshore flood warning until 10 pm edt this evening for ohz003-007-009. pa...beach hazards statement through sunday morning for paz001. flood watch through late tonight for paz001>003. marine...gale warning until 3 am edt sunday for lez142>146-162>166. gale warning from 11 am this morning to 3 am edt sunday for lez147>149-167>169. && $$ synopsis...kec near term...kec short term...kec long term...mayers aviation...mayers marine...mayers hr. fzus51 kcle 270809 nshcle nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 409 am edt sat jun 27 2015 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142>146-271415- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh- 409 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ..gale warning in effect from 8 am edt this morning through late tonight... today...northeast winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots this afternoon. showers with isolated thunderstorms. waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. tonight...northeast gales to 35 knots becoming north to 30 knots overnight. rain showers. waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. sunday...north winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. rain showers likely in the morning...then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. sunday night...west winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. mostly cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. waves 1 to 3 feet. winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms. see lake erie open lakes forecast for monday through wednesday. the water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees...off cleveland 68 degrees and off erie 69 degrees. $$ lez147>149-271415- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 409 am edt sat jun 27 2015 ..gale warning in effect from 11 am edt this morning through late tonight... today...east winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots this afternoon. showers with isolated thunderstorms. waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. tonight...east winds to 30 knots becoming northeast 15 to 25 knots. rain showers. waves 5 to 8 feet. sunday...northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. rain showers in the morning...then rain showers likely in the afternoon. waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. sunday night...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. mostly cloudy. waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms. see lake erie open lakes forecast for monday through wednesday. the water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees...off cleveland 68 degrees and off erie 69 degrees. hr. By 10:00 p.m. yesterday, Fri, Jun 26, 2015, only some drizzle or sprinkles had fallen over West Toledo because the public sidewalk in front of our home was still dry because of the maple trees. Some light rain may have fallen before Midnight. At most, I would say 0.05 inches of #rainfall had occurred before on Jun 26. I got woken up around 3:00 a.m. because of the mod-hvy rainfall. I had both of upstairs windows raised. The north window contained a fan set to low. I closed the north window, and I left the west window open. The gusty north-northeast winds