h1. toledo weather - sun-mon, aug 2-3, 2015 hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 449 am edt sun aug 2 2015 for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the great lakes today and move southeast tonight ahead of a cold front. if the storms maintain their intensity...damaging winds are possible tonight. the best chance would be across northwest ohio and the counties near lake erie. .days two through seven...monday through saturday. the cold front may still be in the area on monday. strong to severe thunderstorms may develop again along the cold front. damaging winds would be the threat with the best chance from around youngstown to canton and mount vernon and points southeast. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed tonight. #toledo - #weather hr. The Toledo area barely resides in the "Enhanced Risk" for severe weather later today/tonight. !https://farm1.staticflickr.com/322/20214458962_a30fbff5e6.jpg! br. This morning's HWO: q. severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the great lakes today and move southeast tonight ahead of a cold front. if the storms maintain their intensity... damaging winds are possible tonight. the best chance would be across northwest ohio and the counties near lake erie. q.. br. Early morning AFD: q. there will likely be several waves of thunderstorms across the northern and central lakes and early tonight they will make a push southeast ahead of the cold front. not sure how far south they can get without losing some steam but the thunderstorms *could roll into toledo* and across lake erie... the best guess is be 03z- 06z [11pm - 2am]. q.. hr. It looks a little active up north. !https://farm1.staticflickr.com/287/20054868449_eb9c8a3344_b.jpg! br. !https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3773/20247311991_0f9c0a4fbd_b.jpg! br. !https://farm1.staticflickr.com/355/20215387476_febe109a73_b.jpg! hr. md 1592 concerning severe thunderstorm watch 462...463... for sern wi...srn lwr mi mesoscale discussion 1592 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0802 pm cdt sun aug 02 2015 areas affected...sern wi...srn lwr mi concerning...severe thunderstorm watch 462...463... valid 030102z - 030300z the severe weather threat for severe thunderstorm watch 462...463...continues. summary...the risk for severe winds and hail continues with ongoing convection as it gradually develops southward this evening. trends on the western flank of the convective system will continue to be monitored for the possibility of a new watch across southern lake michigan and adjacent northeastern illinois/northern indiana/ southwestern lower michigan. discussion...convective outflow over central portions of eastern lower michigan has spread south of stronger lingering convection now to the northwest through north and east of flint...and the leading edge appears to be advancing southward at around 20 kt. this boundary is intersected over western portions of central lower michigan by another arcing band of convection...curving from north of grand rapids into the milwaukee vicinity...where inflow of moderate to large boundary layer based cape is maintaining the most vigorous storm development in the presence of seasonably strong deep layer shear. it still appears possible that the boundary intersection over interior southern lower michigan could contribute to convective intensification between now and 01-03z...aided by forcing associated with an approaching upper impulse which is now pivoting into/through the upper great lakes region. otherwise...locally enhanced convergence along the southward advancing outflow near the lake michigan coast between milwaukee and chicago may maintain the most prominent convection during the next few hours. although large hail has been the primary threat with this activity to this point...in the presence of 40+ kt west southwesterly mean lower/mid tropospheric flow...cold pool strengthening accompanied by increasingly strong surface gusts does not yet appear out of the question. ..kerr.. 08/03/2015 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...dtx...apx...iwx...grr...lot...mkx... lat...lon 42688206 42478243 41818351 41788562 41738640 41418761 42258820 43138847 43538773 43378562 43998424 43338233 42688206 read more hr. For some reason, data is off by one hour. it should start with 11:45 pm. Same for Central Toledo. Sylvania Next Hour: Heavy rain starting in 35 min. 10:45 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:46 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:47 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:48 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:49 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:50 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:51 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:52 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:53 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:54 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:55 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:56 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:57 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:58 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:59 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:00 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:01 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:02 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:03 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:04 pm 1 % chance of very light rain 11:05 pm 1 % chance of very light rain 11:06 pm 1 % chance of very light rain 11:07 pm 2 % chance of very light rain 11:08 pm 3 % chance of very light rain 11:09 pm 4 % chance of very light rain 11:10 pm 6 % chance of very light rain 11:11 pm 7 % chance of very light rain 11:12 pm 7 % chance of very light rain 11:13 pm 8 % chance of very light rain 11:14 pm 9 % chance of very light rain 11:15 pm 10 % chance of very light rain 11:16 pm 11 % chance of very light rain 11:17 pm 14 % chance of very light rain 11:18 pm 17 % chance of very light rain 11:19 pm 20 % chance of very light rain 11:20 pm 27 % chance of very light rain 11:21 pm 32 % chance of very light rain 11:22 pm 38 % chance of very light rain 11:23 pm 48 % chance of very light rain 11:24 pm 51 % chance of very light rain 11:25 pm 54 % chance of very light rain 11:26 pm 56 % chance of very light rain 11:27 pm 59 % chance of light rain 11:28 pm 62 % chance of light rain 11:29 pm 67 % chance of light rain 11:30 pm 72 % chance of light to moderate rain 11:31 pm 75 % chance of light to moderate rain 11:32 pm 78 % chance of moderate rain 11:33 pm 81 % chance of moderate rain 11:34 pm 84 % chance of moderate rain 11:35 pm 86 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 11:36 pm 88 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 11:37 pm 90 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 11:38 pm 93 % chance of heavy rain 11:39 pm 93 % chance of heavy rain 11:40 pm 94 % chance of heavy rain 11:41 pm 95 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 11:42 pm 96 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 11:43 pm 97 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 11:44 pm 97 % chance of very heavy rain 11:45 pm 98 % chance of very heavy rain hr. Central Toledo Next Hour: Rain starting in 45 min. 10:45 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:46 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:47 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:48 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:49 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:50 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:51 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:52 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:53 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:54 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:55 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:56 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:57 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:58 pm 0 % chance of precip 10:59 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:00 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:01 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:02 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:03 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:04 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:05 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:06 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:07 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:08 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:09 pm 0 % chance of precip 11:10 pm 1 % chance of very light rain 11:11 pm 1 % chance of very light rain 11:12 pm 1 % chance of very light rain 11:13 pm 1 % chance of very light rain 11:14 pm 2 % chance of very light rain 11:15 pm 2 % chance of very light rain 11:16 pm 3 % chance of very light rain 11:17 pm 4 % chance of very light rain 11:18 pm 5 % chance of very light rain 11:19 pm 6 % chance of very light rain 11:20 pm 7 % chance of very light rain 11:21 pm 8 % chance of very light rain 11:22 pm 9 % chance of very light rain 11:23 pm 10 % chance of very light rain 11:24 pm 12 % chance of very light rain 11:25 pm 14 % chance of very light rain 11:26 pm 17 % chance of very light rain 11:27 pm 21 % chance of very light rain 11:28 pm 26 % chance of very light rain 11:29 pm 31 % chance of very light rain 11:30 pm 42 % chance of very light rain 11:31 pm 47 % chance of very light rain 11:32 pm 49 % chance of very light rain 11:33 pm 50 % chance of very light rain 11:34 pm 52 % chance of very light rain 11:35 pm 54 % chance of light rain 11:36 pm 57 % chance of light rain 11:37 pm 58 % chance of light rain 11:38 pm 65 % chance of light to moderate rain 11:39 pm 66 % chance of light to moderate rain 11:40 pm 70 % chance of light to moderate rain 11:41 pm 74 % chance of moderate rain 11:42 pm 76 % chance of moderate rain 11:43 pm 79 % chance of moderate rain 11:44 pm 81 % chance of moderate rain 11:45 pm 83 % chance of moderate to heavy rain hr. Severe Thunderstorm Warning Statement as of 11:42 PM EDT on August 02, 2015 The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... southeastern Branch County in southwestern Michigan... southern Hillsdale County in southeastern Michigan... Williams County in northwestern Ohio... Fulton County in northwestern Ohio... * until 1230 am EDT * at 1142 PM EDT... severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Hillsdale to near reading... moving southeast at 45 mph. Hazard... 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. Source... radar indicated. Impact... hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs... siding and trees. * Locations impacted include... Bryan... Hillsdale... Wauseon... Archbold... Montpelier... Swanton... Morenci... Delta... Hudson... West Unity... Pioneer... Stryker... Fayette... reading... Edon... Holiday City... Long Lake... Columbia... West Jefferson and Cambria. This includes Interstate 80 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 48. Precautionary/preparedness actions... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Lat... Lon 4150 8388 4147 8480 4176 8481 4176 8484 4187 8494 4195 8449 4192 8436 4171 8436 4172 8388 time... Mot... loc 0342z 314deg 40kt 4190 8453 4185 8486 Hail... 1.00in wind... 60mph Pbm hr. Forecast.io data Sylvania Next Hour: Heavy rain for the hour. 12:40 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 12:41 am 99 % chance of very heavy rain 12:42 am 99 % chance of very heavy rain 12:43 am 99 % chance of very heavy rain 12:44 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 12:45 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 12:46 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 12:47 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 12:48 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 12:49 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 12:50 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 12:51 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 12:52 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:53 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:54 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:55 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:56 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:57 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:58 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:59 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 1:00 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 1:01 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 1:02 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 1:03 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 1:04 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 1:05 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 1:06 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 1:07 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 1:08 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 1:09 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 1:10 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:11 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:12 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:13 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:14 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:15 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:16 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:17 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:18 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:19 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:20 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:21 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:22 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:23 am 100 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:24 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:25 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:26 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:27 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:28 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:29 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:30 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:31 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:32 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:33 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:34 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:35 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:36 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:37 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:38 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:39 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:40 am 100 % chance of moderate rain hr. Central Toledo Next Hour: Heavy rain for the hour. 12:40 am 94 % chance of light rain 12:41 am 93 % chance of light rain 12:42 am 88 % chance of moderate rain 12:43 am 90 % chance of moderate rain 12:44 am 92 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 12:45 am 92 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 12:46 am 93 % chance of heavy rain 12:47 am 94 % chance of heavy rain 12:48 am 94 % chance of heavy rain 12:49 am 95 % chance of heavy rain 12:50 am 95 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:51 am 96 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:52 am 96 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:53 am 96 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:54 am 96 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:55 am 96 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:56 am 97 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:57 am 97 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:58 am 97 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 12:59 am 97 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 1:00 am 97 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 1:01 am 97 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 1:02 am 97 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 1:03 am 98 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 1:04 am 98 % chance of heavy rain 1:05 am 98 % chance of heavy rain 1:06 am 98 % chance of heavy rain 1:07 am 98 % chance of heavy rain 1:08 am 98 % chance of heavy rain 1:09 am 98 % chance of heavy rain 1:10 am 98 % chance of heavy rain 1:11 am 98 % chance of heavy rain 1:12 am 98 % chance of heavy rain 1:13 am 98 % chance of heavy rain 1:14 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:15 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:16 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:17 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:18 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:19 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:20 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:21 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:22 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:23 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:24 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:25 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:26 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:27 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:28 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:29 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 1:30 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:31 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:32 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:33 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:34 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:35 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:36 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:37 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:38 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:39 am 100 % chance of moderate rain 1:40 am 100 % chance of moderate rain hr. short term forecast national weather service cleveland oh 1224 am edt mon aug 3 2015 ohz003-006>008-030515- lucas-ottawa-wood-sandusky- 1224 am edt mon aug 3 2015 .now... at 1221 am edt...doppler radar indicated a line of showers and thunderstorms...along a line extending from near stryker ohio to monroe michigan moving southeast at 30 mph. through 130 am locations to be impacted include toledo...bowling green...perrysburg...oregon...sylvania... waterville...northwood...genoa...holland...weston...elmore...maumee... ottawa hills...walbridge...millbury...haskins...luckey and grand rapids. $$ thompson hr. !http://toledoweather.info/images/mcd1593.gif! md 1593 concerning severe thunderstorm watch 463...465... for parts of nrn il...nrn ind...nrn oh and srn lwr mi mesoscale discussion 1593 nws storm prediction center norman ok 1119 pm cdt sun aug 02 2015 areas affected...parts of nrn il...nrn ind...nrn oh and srn lwr mi concerning...severe thunderstorm watch 463...465... valid 030419z - 030545z the severe weather threat for severe thunderstorm watch 463...465...continues. summary...the severe wind/hail threat is expected to gradually diminish with a lingering line of storms overspreading the region through 05-07z. a new watch is not currently anticipated for northern ohio...but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. discussion...the leading edge of conglomerate convective outflow continues to advance southward through southern portions of the great lakes region at up to 30 kt. lift along this feature has remained sufficient to support renewed vigorous thunderstorm development... but lightning and radar data suggest general intensity trends are on the downward swing. stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the vigorous short wave impulse pivoting through the upper great lakes region appears likely to begin turning eastward toward southern ontario/quebec shortly. as this occurs...40-50 kt westerly lower/mid tropospheric wind fields currently present across the southern great lakes region should begin to weaken. coupled with continued boundary layer cooling within a narrowing pre-convective line instability axis...severe weather potential with lingering convection is expected to diminish through the 05-07z time. ..kerr.. 08/03/2015 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...iln...iwx...ind...lot... lat...lon 41388692 41298457 41558375 41778168 42158083 42078037 41338090 40888276 40398594 40598822 41548904 41388692 br. At 12:45 a.m., thundershower with moderate to heavy rainfall over West Toledo. 12:40 a.m. snapshot. !http://toledotalk.com/images/radar1.jpg! br. Mesoscale discussion "issued":http://toledoweather.info/mesoscale1593.html at 12:19 a.m. !http://toledoweather.info/images/mcd1593.gif! br. Warned areas as of 12:46 a.m. !http://toledoweather.info/images/ww0465_warnings.gif!