h1. 2015 Toledo Mayoral Election

No September mayoral primary exists in this special election year. 

All candidates will appear on the Nov 3, 2015 ballot, provided that they can obtain the necessary petition signatures.

The deadline to file petitions is Sep 4. Candidates are required to obtain at least 750 valid Toledo signatures.

The party affiliations are guesses. The endorsed Democrat candidate is current mayor Paula Hicks-Hudson.

Unofficially, here's the mayoral field as of Wed, Aug 19:

* Mike Bell - (I) 
* Sandra Drabik Collins - (I) 
* Opal Covey - (R) 
* Mike Ferner - (I) 
* Carty Finkbeiner - (D)
* Paula Hicks-Hudson - (D) 
* Sandy Spang - (I) 


h2. Past Election Info

November elections:

table{width:300px;}.
|*2005:*|||
|Carty Finkbeiner|	47,351|	61%|
|Jack Ford|	29,169|	38%|
||76,520||
|%{color:white}-%|||
|*2009:*|||
|Mike Bell|  35,118|  52%|
|Keith Wilkowski|  31,987|  48%|
||67,105||
|%{color:white}-%|||
|*2013:*|||
|Mike Collins| 28,159|   55.4%|
|Mike Bell|  21,721|  42.7%|
||49,880||


br. Additional info:

* The November 2013 Toledo voter turnout was 25.4 percent of registered voters.
* Nearly 27,000 fewer votes were cast for the 2013 mayor's race, compared to 2005.
* Both losers in the 2005 and 2009 mayoral elections had more votes than the winner in 2013.
* In the November 1993 Toledo mayoral election, Carty Finkbeiner defeated Mike Ferner by 672 votes. In that election, *92,470* votes were cast.
* Toledo's population in 1990 was 332,943.
* Toledo's population in 2010 was 287,208.
* Toledo's estimated population for 2013 was 282,313.


br. The top four finishers in the September 2013 primary:

table{width: 300px;}.
|(I) Michael P. Bell |>. 6340 |>. 27% |
|(I) D. Michael Collins |>. 5806 |>. 24% |
|(D) Anita Lopez |>. 5443 |>. 23% |
|(D) Joe McNamara |>. 5328 |>. 22% |


h2. Prediction

I'm guessing that at max, 45,000 votes will be cast in Toledo's mayoral election in November 2015. 

The city's population is around 280,000 with approximately 190,000 registered voters. I think. 

Voter turnout will probably be between 22 and 24 percent.

My predicted finishing order:

# Mike Bell  - 25%  ~11,000 votes
# Carty Finkbeiner - 22% 
# Paula Hicks-Hudson - 20%
# Sandy Spang - 15% 
# Sandra Drabik Collins - 12% 
# Mike Ferner - 5%  
# Opal Covey - 1%

If voter turnout is lower, it's possible that the winner may have only 8,000 to 10,000 votes.

 #toledo #politics