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Toledo weather sun aug 23 2015 link fxus61 kcle 231320 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 920 am edt sun aug 23 2015 synopsis... a cold front will move east across the area today. high pressure will build east into the region tonight. low pressure will move southeast into the northern great lakes region and force a trough of low pressure southeast across the region tuesday. the trough will remain persistent through thursday morning as high pressure gradually builds east toward the area thursday into friday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... update...made several changes to clouds and pops through tonight to attempt improve on timing and collaboration. also tapered pops after midnight. capes fairly decent through the evening and into the night but would expect some diurnal decrease in coverage with best forcing north of the region so lowered thunder chances (wording) after midnight. also looked out through the remainder of the short term and chose to increase general cloud cover across the region after tuesday morning as the upper low drops southeast across the lakes and encroaches into the area. previous discussion... cold front is progged to move east across the area today. moisture with the front is not all that extensive and may limit the amount of showers and thunderstorms we get through the day. qpf amounts should be light but i think we should measure at all locations. that is why i am leaning in the direction of likely pops across the entire area. leading edge of precipitation should not arrive into the western portions of the forecast area until this afternoon. activity over indiana at this time is struggling to make eastward progress in the drier air. latest spc outlook indicates extreme western portions of the forecast area in a marginal risk area for severe weather. rest of the forecast area remains in a general area for thunderstorms. warm air advection and sunshine ahead of the front should help push temperatures up into the 80s across the forecast area today. && short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/... the beginning of the downward slide will begin late tonight as an upper level low pressure system moves southeast toward the area. this overall pattern is indicative of a winter pattern as cold air aloft and cyclonic flow over the forecast area will persist for a lengthy period. hopefully...this is not a telltale sign of what is to come for this winter. i would hate to get stuck in a pattern like this so soon. meanwhile...as surface high pressure tries to build east into the area behind the cold front...surface trough of low pressure will move southeast toward the area on monday and tuesday. this feature along with the cyclonic flow will help to get the flow to become well aligned up the lake to produce some lake effect clouds and rain showers over the northeast portions of the forecast area. rest of the forecast area should be primarily dry through this forecast period. unfortunately...with the cool air advection taking place...it is going to feel more like a day in late september rather than late august. gfs model appears to be on target with timing of the cold front and clouds so will be leaning in that direction this morning. temperatures will be on a gradual decline with low temperatures falling into the 50s over the next several periods and highs in the 70s and then lower 70s. keep in mind this is still august so any sun will help boost temperatures fairly rapidly. && long term /thursday through saturday/... the models are a little slower at lifting out the deep trough aloft in the middle of the week. some of the guidance shows one last short wave diving into the trough wednesday night into thursday and will keep a small chance of showers across extreme northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania on thursday. most of the area should be dry but cool on thursday. the surface high should be overhead by friday. after a cool start... we should see temperatures make progress back toward normal. will forecast highs mostly in the mid and upper 70s friday. not as much confidence by the weekend. the ecmwf and gem focus most of the active weather in the middle of the country where a short wave is progged to cut off. the gfs is more zonal with several weak short waves riding over the top of the ridge. moisture will be limited. heights will likely be relatively high and the atmosphere should remain relatively stable. unless the wave in the middle of the country is more progressive than advertised...do not see enough of a trigger to include showers in the forecast for now. && aviation /12z sunday through thursday/... vfr conditions will continue until a cold front approaches late this afternoon/evening. a scattered to broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected with the frontal passage across northwest ohio late this afternoon or early this evening and early tonight for northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. quick clearing is expected behind the front tonight. vfr conditions will continue into monday. outlook...non vfr possible for keri tuesday and the snowbelt of ne oh/nw pa wednesday. && marine... winds on lake erie are gradually veering more from the south and speeds are relatively light and that will continue to be the case today ahead of a cold front. the gradient should remain weak and winds will likely not pick up much until the actual frontal passage. in fact...on onshore flow will likely develop today on the east half of the lake. the cold front should cross the western basin this evening and move east across the lake tonight. showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front although the showers/storms may remain somewhat scattered. the overall weather pattern will become almost winter like this week as a deep trough develops aloft and brisk southwest flow becomes more west to northwest on the lake. a small craft advisory will be needed...perhaps starting as early as monday and likely lasting through mid week...especially on the east half of the lake. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...lombardy near term...tk/lombardy short term...lombardy long term...kosarik aviation...kosarik marine...kosarik hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Aug 23, 2015 7:04 am Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 82. South wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 59. West wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 73. West wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Southwest wind 6 to 14 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. #toledo #weather Weather for Toledo More at Forecast.io 78° and rising Clear Wind: 8 mph (S) Today 84°60° Mon 76°57° Tue 73°56° Wed 75°54° Thu 73°52° Fri 77°56° Sat 84°60° Sun 85°61° hr. spc ac 231626 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1126 am cdt sun aug 23 2015 valid 231630z - 241200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over parts of lwr mi...nrn ind...and nw oh... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over parts of grt lks and oh vly... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over parts of the south... ...summary... strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will move east across parts of michigan and the mid-ohio valley today with a risk mainly for locally damaging wind. a few storms with strong winds also may occur over parts of the south. ...synoptic setup... potent nrn mn upr low/trough expected to cross the international border into srn ont later today...with the system likely to assume more of a negative tilt as associated speed max now entering srn mn sweeps ese to srn wi/srn lk mi by eve. the low should reform ese across ern lk superior early mon as heights rebound in its wake over the rckys and intermountain west. farther s...at least two weak disturbances...one now over ar and the other over ern al... should track generally ese in the weaker srn stream. sfc low associated with mn system will slowly fill as it continues across wrn ont today. trailing cold front should accelerate e across lwr mi and the mid oh vly this aftn as lwr tropospheric flow becomes more wly over wi/nrn il. across the south...weak front/composite outflow boundary now extending from the arklatex ese to cntrl ga expected to settle only slowly s through the period. ...mi/mid oh vly this aftn/eve... band of strong dcva associated with srn mn speed max will align with sfc cold front over ern lk mi/wrn lwr mi later day. coupled with max sfc heating...setup may support intensification of existing lines of convection/storms along the front...and possibly the development of additional activity farther e. ample /30-40 kt/ sw to wswly deep shear will be present for sustained storms/supercells as 700-500 mb speeds increase to around 40 kts. aftn destabilization will...however...remain somewhat tempered by relatively narrow/modest axis of pre-frontal moisture return. although pw should increase to aoa 1.50 inches per latest obs...mid-lvl lapse rates are expected to remain weak. in fact...500 mb temperatures may slightly rise over the region this aftn based on the 12z raob data and ecmwf fcst. nevertheless...combination of strengthening forcing for ascent with modest low-lvl moistening /sfc dewpoints increasing into low 60s f/ may prove sufficient for a couple lines of low-topped convection/storms capable of locally dmgg wind and possibly a tornado or two. this threat should be greatest late this aftn over the ern half of lwr mi...and perhaps nrn ind/nw oh. ...arklatex ese into ga this aftn... sctd aftn storms/storm clusters with a potential for occasional strong gusts may develop along diffuse front/composite outflow boundary extending from ne tx ese to the lwr savannah rvr vly. in addition to sfc heating...development may be augmented by aforementioned upr impulses over ar and al...with storm organization fostered by associated belt of slightly enhanced /25 kt/ wnwly mid-lvl flow. the portion of the outflow boundary in srn ar/nw ms may continue advancing sewd through early this aftn until related mesohigh further weakens. the remainder of the boundary...meanwhile...should remain nearly stnry. ..corfidi/jirak.. 08/23/2015 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000z hr. md 1744 concerning severe potential...watch possible for lower mi...nrn ind...nwrn oh mesoscale discussion 1744 nws storm prediction center norman ok 1212 pm cdt sun aug 23 2015 areas affected...lower mi...nrn ind...nwrn oh concerning...severe potential...watch possible valid 231712z - 231845z probability of watch issuance...40 percent summary...strong to marginally svr wind gusts will be possible throughout the afternoon across lower mi into nrn ind and nwrn oh. trends will be monitored for a possible watch over the next 1-2 hrs. discussion...a pre-frontal and fairly disorganized line of tstms has entered wrn lower mi...with trailing synoptic cold front across lake mi into cntrl il. modest destabilization is occurring ahead of the line into nrn ind...as temperatures warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s are yielding mlcape values approaching 500 j/kg. gradual intensification of the pre-frontal convective line is possible over the next couple hrs...with the predominant threat being strong to locally dmgg wind gusts...given 20-40 kt of low-midlevel flow observed in grr vwp data. a brief/weak tornado is also possible. the primary limiting factor will be the marginal thermodynamic environment...which makes watch issuance uncertain...but convective trends are being monitored. ..rogers/corfidi.. 08/23/2015 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...apx...iwx...grr...ind...lot... lat...lon 42618318 41018399 40398563 40608666 40978726 42208628 43218570 44088546 44548528 44538405 43748311 43448303 42618318 read more