Toledo weather wed aug 26 2015 fzus51 kcle 260742 nshcle nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 342 am edt wed aug 26 2015 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142>145-261500- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- 342 am edt wed aug 26 2015 today...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. partly sunny. a slight chance of rain showers this morning. waves 1 to 3 feet. tonight...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north 10 knots or less. mostly cloudy. a chance of waterspouts. a chance of rain showers overnight. waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. thursday...north winds less than 10 knots. partly sunny. a chance of waterspouts in the morning. waves 2 feet or less. thursday night...light and variable winds. partly cloudy. waves 2 feet or less. see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday. the water temperature off toledo is 72 degrees...off cleveland 73 degrees and off erie 73 degrees. $$ lez146>149-261500- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 342 am edt wed aug 26 2015 today...northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. mostly cloudy. a chance of rain showers this morning...then a slight chance of rain showers this afternoon. a chance of waterspouts. waves 2 to 4 feet. tonight...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north 10 knots or less. mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. a chance of waterspouts. waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. thursday...north winds less than 10 knots. partly sunny. a chance of rain showers in the morning. a chance of waterspouts in the morning. waves 2 feet or less. thursday night...northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. partly cloudy. waves 2 feet or less. see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday. the water temperature off toledo is 72 degrees...off cleveland 73 degrees and off erie 73 degrees. $$ hr. TOL: Aug 26, 2015 9:52 am Weather : Overcast Temperature : 60 F Humidity : 80% Wind Speed : WNW 5 mph Barometer : 30.12 in Dewpoint: 54 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Aug 26, 2015 6:39 am Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. North wind 3 to 5 mph. Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. North wind 3 to 5 mph. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph after midnight. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. hr. 2nd straight day of low cloud cover and cool temps in the 60s. TOL: Aug 26, 2015 3:52 pm Weather : Overcast Temperature : 65 F Humidity : 73% Wind Speed : WSW 7 mph Barometer : 30.11 in Dewpoint: 56 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (formerly Metcalf Airport) Aug 26, 2015 3:53 pm Weather : Overcast Temperature : 66 F Humidity : 63% Wind Speed : W 10 mph Barometer : 30.12 in Dewpoint: 53 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (near Lambertville) Aug 26, 2015 3:35 pm Weather : Overcast Temperature : 65 F Humidity : 72% Wind Speed : WNW 5 mph Barometer : 30.12 in Dewpoint: 56 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles hr. fzus51 kcle 261335 nshcle nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 935 am edt wed aug 26 2015 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142>144-262015- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 935 am edt wed aug 26 2015 rest of today...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. cloudy. a slight chance of rain showers late this morning. a chance of waterspouts late this morning. waves 1 to 3 feet. tonight...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north 10 knots or less. cloudy. a chance of waterspouts. a chance of rain showers overnight. waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. thursday...north winds less than 10 knots. partly sunny. a chance of waterspouts in the morning. waves 2 feet or less. thursday night...light and variable winds. partly cloudy. waves 2 feet or less. see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday. the water temperature off toledo is 72 degrees...off cleveland 73 degrees and off erie 73 degrees. $$ lez145>149-262015- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 935 am edt wed aug 26 2015 rest of today...northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. cloudy. a chance of rain showers late this morning. a chance of waterspouts late this morning. waves 2 to 4 feet. tonight...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north 10 knots or less. cloudy with a chance of rain showers. a chance of waterspouts. waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. thursday...north winds less than 10 knots. mostly cloudy. a chance of rain showers in the morning. a chance of waterspouts in the morning. waves 2 feet or less. thursday night...northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. partly cloudy. waves 2 feet or less. see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday. the water temperature off toledo is 72 degrees...off cleveland 73 degrees and off erie 73 degrees. hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Aug 26, 2015 2:44 pm Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 54. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Light north wind. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Light east wind. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Light southeast wind. Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. hr. fxus61 kcle 261942 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 342 pm edt wed aug 26 2015 synopsis... high pressure over the midwest will move east across the ohio valley and lower great lakes region tonight and thursday. the high will drift across pennsylvania on friday as low pressure moves to iowa. && near term /through tonight/... clouds fairly solid across the region this afternoon although clouds across swrn ohio and srn indiana starting to look more convective vs stratus as the airmass becomes more mixed around the edge of the upper low circulation. through the evening believe clouds across the region will remain in place but overnight guidance does show moisture pulling east with the upper low. also by 12z thursday the surface high will be over the area. on balance however...do not believe skies will clear as rapidly as guidance suggests so have boosted sky cover percentages vs guidance through the night with 12z skies remaining cloudy/mostly cloudy roughly east of a cle-mfd line. will allow for skies to be partly cloudy by morning west of that line. as for precip...the models show the axis of the upper trough over nern ohio and nwrn pa at 00z moving southeast of the area through the evening. as a result our northwest fetch will become more northerly through the night and become lighter which would be less supportive of lake effect showers. will have chance and slight chance pops for the favored lake effect locations through the evening and overnight. guidance temps fine in the low to mid 50s. && short term /thursday through saturday night/... thursday begins with high pressure and dry air aloft across the area however with light north flow off the lake under a exiting upper trough not still expect cloudy skies at least across nern ohio and nwrn pa to start. to the west enough drying and high pressure should get in to break the ceilings so will being there with "partly cloudy". through the late morning however the cu rule suggests sunshine would create a thick field of cu so will increase clouds there through the afternoon to partly sunny at best for self destruct sunshine. for the east half of the area morning clouds should break to become partly sunny as drier air mixes in. the high will continue to influence the area through friday as it moves east across pa. will have clear to partly cloudy skies and dry conditions thursday night through friday night. saturday models show the high moving east with a short wave and surface low reaching to iowa. expect moisture to be increasing in southerly flow ahead of the low. both the gfs and nam show instability increasing through the afternoon into the evening with li's (gfs) around -4 and capes (nam)1500-2000j/kg. will still go with partly cloudy/partly sunny but seems enough instability for an increasing thunderstorm threat through the day. system appears to weaken into saturday night but the gfs and ecmwf both have a swath of moisture across the area so will have chance pops continuing. temps rebounding through the period from below to near normal. && long term /sunday through wednesday/... upper level ridge over the plains will expand eastward across the great lakes region through the extended forecast. over the last 24 hours models have trended towards a weak upper level disturbance moving north from the gulf beneath the building ridge. will continue a low 20-40 pop sunday through monday with some moisture around. hard to pin down forcing for thunderstorms or timing at this point and will need to continue to monitor model trends. left the forecast dry for tuesday and wednesday as we start to dry out with mid-levels warming aloft...with the atmosphere becoming increasingly capped. temperatures will be in the low 80s to start the week...warming into the mid and upper 80s by mid-week. && aviation /18z wednesday through monday/... an upper-level trough moving through the eastern great lakes has brought overcast mvfr/low vfr ceilings across northern ohio and northwest pa. additionally...northwest winds associated with this trough have generated some lake-effect showers that have affected the cle...eri...cak...and yng terminals. the trend for the next 24-30 hours is that this cloud deck will remain in place across all of the tafs sites. forecast models and soundings suggest that lake-effect generated clouds will allow for a mixed bag ceiling-wise between vfr and mvfr in the eastern taf sites and some lake-effect showers could develop after 00z that could impact the cle and eri terminals. very low confidence on what rain could directly fall at the terminals so just have vcsh mention for this evening. otherwise...it is tough call on the early morning fog potential as cloud cover and persistent winds should keep the atmosphere mixed and prevent significant decoupling. however...overnight lows and dew points should reach saturation in the mid 50s and can certainly give the potential for mvfr fog to form...so gave mention of mvfr vsbys at all inland sites and tol. fog could be more likely if any significant breaks in the cloud cover develop. winds are likely to be too persistent at cle and eri for any reduced vsbys. outlook...sub-vfr possible on saturday and sunday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. && marine... the trough over the eastern great lakes will continue to relax tonight as high pressure builds in from the west. northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will shift to the north at 10 knots or less. the high will slowly build east across the region...reaching the east coast by saturday. winds will have a northerly component on thursday with lake breezes developing on friday. winds will shift to the south on saturday as a weak area of low pressure moves through the central great lakes. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...tk near term...tk short term...tk long term...kec aviation...kec/sefcovic 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