h1. Toledo weather sat sep 5 2015 Thunderstorms, including a couple severe ones, occurred yest in toledo area but it all missed west toledo. Some heavy rain occurred with some cells. Power out in Luckey from ~4:00 pm to after 9:00 pm. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 626 am edt sat sep 5 2015 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-061030- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 626 am edt sat sep 5 2015 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. scattered thunderstorms are possible today. locally heavy rainfall will be the primary threat with thunderstorms with storm motion of 10 mph or less. organized severe thunderstorms are not expected but an isolated wind gust of 45 to 55 mph is possible. .days two through seven...sunday through friday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ special weather statement special weather statement national weather service cleveland oh 616 am edt sat sep 5 2015 ohz003-006>008-051115- ottawa-lucas-wood-sandusky- 616 am edt sat sep 5 2015 ...a line of thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall will affect western sandusky...ottawa...northeastern wood and northeastern lucas counties... at 608 am edt...a cluster of thunderstorms was located from east of oregon to oak harbor and south to pemberville...and moving northwest at 10 mph. torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms...and may cause ponding of water on roadways. do not drive your vehicle into flooded roadways. motorists traveling on interstate 90 and routes 20 and 23 should exercise caution as they encounter very heavy rain. frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storm. lat...lon 4170 8344 4169 8343 4169 8336 4159 8309 4158 8305 4151 8306 4151 8308 4150 8307 4145 8311 4125 8335 4128 8360 time...mot...loc 1008z 175deg 16kt 4166 8327 4134 8351 $$ clark #toledo #weather hr. At 7:10 am, a blob of mod-hvy rain still exists over eastern Lucas, northern Wood, and western Ottawa counties. Rain area is drifting very slowly to north but it appears that some individual cells are moving east. Also a finger seems to be off shooting into Lucas county. Distant Thunder began being heard over west toledo at 6:55 to 7:00 am. With the slow speed and mod-hvy rainfall, I'm guessing that flooding issues may temporarily occur if rain occurs over more urban areas. Special Statement Statement as of 6:16 AM EDT on September 05, 2015 ... A line of thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall will affect western Sandusky... Ottawa... northeastern wood and northeastern Lucas counties... At 608 am EDT... a cluster of thunderstorms was located from east of Oregon to Oak Harbor and south to Pemberville... and moving northwest at 10 mph. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms... and may cause ponding of water on roadways. Do not drive your vehicle into flooded roadways. Motorists traveling on Interstate 90 and routes 20 and 23 should exercise caution as they encounter very heavy rain. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storm. Lat... Lon 4170 8344 4169 8343 4169 8336 4159 8309 4158 8305 4151 8306 4151 8308 4150 8307 4145 8311 4125 8335 4128 8360 time... Mot... loc 1008z 175deg 16kt 4166 8327 4134 8351 Clark 616 am EDT Sat Sep 5 2015 ... A line of thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall will affect western Sandusky... Ottawa... northeastern wood and northeastern Lucas counties... At 608 am EDT... a cluster of thunderstorms was located from east of Oregon to Oak Harbor and south to Pemberville... and moving northwest at 10 mph. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms... and may cause ponding of water on roadways. Do not drive your vehicle into flooded roadways. Motorists traveling on Interstate 90 and routes 20 and 23 should exercise caution as they encounter very heavy rain. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storm. Lat... Lon 4170 8344 4169 8343 4169 8336 4159 8309 4158 8305 4151 8306 4151 8308 4150 8307 4145 8311 4125 8335 4128 8360 time... Mot... loc 1008z 175deg 16kt 4166 8327 4134 8351 Clark hr. link fxus61 kcle 051048 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 648 am edt sat sep 5 2015 synopsis... the upper level disturbance over michigan will weaken and lift northeast today. a broad area of high pressure over new england will move south along the east coast through the holiday weekend. a weakening front will stall just north of the area on tuesday...then push south on wednesday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... cluster of thunderstorms with efficient rainfall rates developed over the last 2 hours producing heavy rainfall from vanlue to fostoria to near woodville. storm motion is very slow with storms building to north at 5-10 mph. radar estimates that some areas have already had over 2 inches of rain and are monitoring for any flooding issues. storms are approaching the toledo area and heavy rain looks to impact at least the early portion of the morning commute. it appears these thunderstorms have developed in an area of moisture convergence ahead of the upper level circulation. previous discussion...water vapor imagery still shows an upper level circulation centered over southern lake michigan early this morning. a few thunderstorms have been developing early this morning across indiana and nw ohio ahead of the drier air wrapping around the south side of the circulation. the ruc shows this spoke of energy will tend to weaken over the next several hours. after that models shows the upper level feature weakening and slowly lifting ne across lower michigan through the afternoon. expect to see the early morning convection in the west tend to weaken through 13-14z then wait for instability to increase this afternoon. coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be less than the past couple days given the weakening upper level feature. sufficient instability is expected to develop again this afternoon with pockets of cape in excess of 2000 j/kg. there will be less of a trigger this afternoon with best chances for initiation in nw ohio on the southern flank of the wave and ne ohio along the lake breeze. although severe thunderstorms are generally not expected...can not rule out a warning or two as strong cells collapse. not enough shear for anything more organized today. with less cloud cover and precip than yesterday...temperatures will rebound into the mid 80s in pa to near 90 in nw ohio. && short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/... thunderstorms will diminish this evening with heights building aloft on sunday. the trend will continue for less thunderstorm activity except for ne ohio/nw pa where thunderstorms will likely develop again along the lake breeze. dewpoints start to mix out by monday and expect dry conditions to finally prevail with the atmosphere becoming increasingly capped. the ridge aloft starts to flatten by tuesday as the upper trough approaches the midwest. gfs is still more aggressive with shortwave energy streaming northeast through the central great lakes on tuesday afternoon ahead of the trough with thunderstorms developing. the gfs is an outlier with this energy and outpaces the return of the low-level moisture. expect convection to fill in tuesday night as the slow moving frontal boundary sinks south. given the slower timing...kept highs in the upper 80s to near 90 through tuesday. && long term /wednesday through friday/... both models signaling change of the current weather pattern mid week. unfortunately the ecmwf is coming into line with the latest gfs. although gfs a little faster on the timing trend is still the same. models push cold front across the forecast area on wednesday only to stall the front across central ohio...with low pressure moving across the lower lakes by the end of the work week. meanwhile at the upper levels nice upper ridge will gradually be replaced by a digging trough by this time next week. && aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/... little change in weather pattern. areas of mvfr br toward daybreak with isolated convection this afternoon. do not think there will be as much convection this afternoon as ydy. outlook...areas of non vfr each morning in fog and haze. && marine... quiet weather will continue on the lake through the weekend...although a chance of thunderstorm activity is possible this afternoon. southwest flow will develop on the lake early in the work week ahead of slow moving cold front. models continue to hold off the next front until wednesday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...kec near term...kec short term...kec long term...djb aviation...djb marine...djb hr. An odd cluster of thunderstorms formed after 4:00 am in the Toledo area, and as of 7:30 am, the mod-hvy rainfall still exists in the Toledo area, mainly over eastern Lucas, western Ottawa, and northern Wood counties. Some rain also existed in central Lucas County. The rain area was drifting to the north at only 5 to 10 mph. Some areas have received a fair amount of rainfall, and localized flooding issues may occur. hr. At 8:00 am, still thundering over West Toledo, mainly distant-like grumbling. No rainfall here yet. Radar shows a tiny cell of heavy rain approaching our neighborhood from the northwest. Most of the mod-hvy rain exists over northern Wood and western Ottawa counties. This main area of rain has broken down some since 7:30 am. A bunch of small cells formed rapidly over southeast Michigan and northern Lucas County between 7:30 and 8:00 am. Rain began falling over our home at 8:07 am. Now moderate rain at 8:08 am. No wind. Light rain over us at 8:15 a.m. Rain nearly ended at 8:19 a.m. But scattered cells over southwest Monroe and southeast Lenawee counties may drift into Toledo later. Only sprinkles at 8:21 a.m. 8:37 a.m.: very light rain was falling. rain over southwest Monroe County approached Sylvania. We may see this rain too. Rain over Lenawee and Monroe counties seems to be moving to the southeast. 8:54 a.m. : thunder getting closer. a moderate thundershower approaches from the northwest. 9:07 a.m. : light rain falling. maybe light-to-moderate. it appears that it will rain for a little while, like most of the next hour. forecast.io data says heavy rain for the hour for Sylvania and Central Toledo locations. Sylvania: Next Hour: Heavy rain for the hour. 9:05 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:06 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:07 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:08 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:09 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:10 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:11 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:12 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:13 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:14 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:15 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:16 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:17 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:18 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:19 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:20 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:21 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:22 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:23 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:24 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:25 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:26 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:27 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:28 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:29 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:30 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:31 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:32 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:33 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:34 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:35 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:36 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:37 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:38 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:39 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:40 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 9:41 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 9:42 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 9:43 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 9:44 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 9:45 am 97 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 9:46 am 97 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 9:47 am 97 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 9:48 am 96 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 9:49 am 96 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 9:50 am 96 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 9:51 am 95 % chance of moderate rain 9:52 am 94 % chance of moderate rain 9:53 am 93 % chance of moderate rain 9:54 am 92 % chance of moderate rain 9:55 am 91 % chance of moderate rain 9:56 am 91 % chance of moderate rain 9:57 am 90 % chance of moderate rain 9:58 am 89 % chance of moderate rain 9:59 am 88 % chance of moderate rain 10:00 am 87 % chance of moderate rain 10:01 am 86 % chance of moderate rain 10:02 am 84 % chance of moderate rain 10:03 am 83 % chance of moderate rain 10:04 am 82 % chance of moderate rain 10:05 am 80 % chance of moderate rain Central Toledo: Next Hour: Heavy rain for the hour. 9:05 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:06 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:07 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:08 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:09 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:10 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:11 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:12 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:13 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:14 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:15 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:16 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:17 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:18 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:19 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:20 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:21 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:22 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:23 am 100 % chance of very heavy rain 9:24 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:25 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:26 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:27 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:28 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:29 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:30 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:31 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:32 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:33 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:34 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:35 am 100 % chance of heavy to very heavy rain 9:36 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:37 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:38 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:39 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:40 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:41 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:42 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:43 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:44 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:45 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:46 am 100 % chance of heavy rain 9:47 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:48 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:49 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:50 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:51 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:52 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:53 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:54 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:55 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:56 am 99 % chance of heavy rain 9:57 am 98 % chance of heavy rain 9:58 am 98 % chance of heavy rain 9:59 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 10:00 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 10:01 am 98 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 10:02 am 97 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 10:03 am 97 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 10:04 am 97 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 10:05 am 97 % chance of moderate to heavy rain 9:08 a.m. : raining a little harder. we'll probably have a steady period of at least light to moderate rain with occasional increases to moderate to heavy, according to radar. forecast.io data indicates a little heavier rainfall. 9:13 a.m. - moderate rainfall with occasional thunder. 9:45 a.m. - light rain falling. still some occasional thunder. this is a little break for us. the small, trailing edge area of moderate rain will move in soon. 9:58 a.m. - radar showed rain area quickly breaking down. we may only have light rain for a little while longer. 10:06 a.m. - light to moderate rain falling. a small spot of heavier rain moving over us now.