h1. Toledo Weather - Fri, Oct 2, 2015 lakeshore hazard message national weather service cleveland oh 341 am edt fri oct 2 2015 ...strong east to northeast winds will create a lakeshore flooding hazard... .northeast winds will increase to 35 knot gales today. the persistent northeast flow will cause lake levels to fluctuate between 5 and 6.5 feet above low water datum. in addition waves are expected to be 8 to 10 feet today and tonight...which will contribute to lakeshore flooding and beach erosion. ohz003-007>009-021545- /o.can.kcle.cf.a.0001.000000t0000z-151003t1400z/ /o.new.kcle.ls.w.0002.151002t0741z-151003t1400z/ lucas-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh- 341 am edt fri oct 2 2015 ...lakeshore flood warning in effect until 10 am edt saturday... ...coastal flood watch is cancelled... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a lakeshore flood warning...which is in effect until 10 am edt saturday. the coastal flood watch has been cancelled. * lake shore flooding...northeast gales will cause elevated lake levels and waves of 8 to 10 feet to create a lakeshore flooding threat and significant beach erosion. lake levels are expected to fluctuate between 5 and 6.5 feet above low water datum during this time frame. * timing...friday through saturday morning....with a likely peak near midnight tonight. * impacts...beach erosion and coastal flooding is likely. precautionary/preparedness actions... a lakeshore flood warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring, is imminent, or is expected to occur within the next 12 hours. people in the warning area should take immediate action to protect life and property. listen to local radio...television... or noaa weather radio for further information. && $$ oudeman hazardous weather outlook hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 336 am edt fri oct 2 2015 ohz003-007>009-030745- lucas-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh- 336 am edt fri oct 2 2015 ...lakeshore flood warning in effect until 10 am edt saturday... this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. lakeshore flood warning. .days two through seven...saturday through thursday. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. lakeshore flood warning. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. TOL: Oct 2, 2015 6:52 am Weather : Overcast Temperature : 49 F Humidity : 69% Wind Speed : NNE 17 mph Barometer : 30.27 in Dewpoint: 39 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Wind Chill : 43 F formerly Metcalf Airport) Oct 2, 2015 6:53 am Weather : Overcast Temperature : 54 F Humidity : 69% Wind Speed : NNE 13 mph - Gust 23 mph Barometer : 30.27 in Dewpoint: 44 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (near Lambertville) Oct 2, 2015 6:55 am Weather : Partly Cloudy Temperature : 50 F Humidity : 67% Wind Speed : NE 13 mph - Gust 16 mph Barometer : 30.29 in Dewpoint: 39 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Wind Chill : 45 F hr. warmer next week. nice. no need to rush the chill. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Oct 2, 2015 5:51 am Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Tonight: A slight chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday: Showers likely, mainly after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 58. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Saturday Night: Showers likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 52. East wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Sunday: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 71. hr. area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 548 am edt fri oct 2 2015 synopsis... a ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the local area through this evening. a trough of low pressure will extend north from the southeastern united states coast and remain nearly stationary through monday morning. high pressure will move east across the area by tuesday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... high clouds continue to stream north filling in areas where it was clear over northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. this will be the trend through the day. made some minor changes to hourly temperatures this morning. no other major changes with this update. previous discussion... upper level pattern indicating upper level troughiness will remain persistent today but will become absorbed as part of the strengthening upper level low pressure system over the florida panhandle. this upper level feature will cause a trough to extend northwest into the forecast area tonight. in the mean time...surface high pressure to the north will continue to remain in control of the weather across the forecast area today. persistent brisk northeast flow will remain through the day and keep a mix of clouds and sun across the area. most persistent clouds will be the result of reverse lake effect off lake erie...especially southwest of the lake and along the lake shore. temperatures will still be on the cooler side as cold air advection continues through the day. winds will also be brisk through the day as gradient associated with the high pressure to the north remains tight. && short term /6 pm this evening through monday night/... upper level low that develops as a result of troughiness in the eastern united states will continue to strengthen over georgia. meanwhile...upper level ridging will occur from the central atlantic ocean west into new york and pennsylvania into ohio and the great lakes. the upper level ridge is progged to gradually break down over time leaving flow over the entire eastern third of the united states rather sluggish. what does this mean for us...this means there will likely be no strong push to move any systems affecting the local area out of here in any fast manner. latest models and hurricane official track of joaquin pushes the storm a bit further east over the atlantic...albeit sluggish movement. if this track holds...then models suggest a bit of moisture will surge west from the atlantic into the forecast area with the inverted trough and then dissipate as joaquin cuts off the flow of moisture into the forecast area. keep in mind if joaquin does take a further west track than currently projected...then more of an influence from the storm in the form of moisture could be felt during the latter half of the weekend and early next week. so...based on that information...i am going to keep the forecast pretty much where it is based on current trends. obviously...adjustments up or down will need to be made on rain chances through the weekend into early next week. temperatures are going to be tough during this period as cold air advection around the high pressure will keep temperatures on the cool side. as rain begins to move west into the area...clouds and precipitation will have a cooling effect and highs may struggle to climb out of the 50s saturday. overnight lows holding mostly in the 50s. lakeshore/coastal flood watch still remains in effect for counties adjacent to the western basin of lake erie. best chance for any flooding to occur will be later tonight. will still keep the watch in effect at this time. gusty winds on lake erie out of the northeast continues to cause a seiche where water levels have been on the rise on the west end of the lake. if the water levels rise tonight as expected...some flooding along the shore is possible. && long term /tuesday through thursday/... area will still have flow off of the lake on tuesday and therefore will keep some cloud cover across the area. have removed the mention of precipitation as we should be in good shape with surface high pressure and a flat ridge aloft. otherwise wednesday and thursday will be a waiting game...waiting for the western u.s. trough to eject out into the central plains. of course there are varying solutions as would be expected both because it is far out in time yet but also just as a result of the pattern we are in. temperatures will be seasonable. && aviation /06z friday through tuesday/... lingering low level moisture across northwest ohio resulting in ceilings hovering around 3k feet for the remainder of tonight. others have sct-bkn mid/high level decks. expect all sites to be vfr from mid morning onward. strong ne flow will continue. on and off gusts to 25 knots for the remainder of the night...increasing to near 30 knots for the daylight hours. locations along the lakeshore...cle/eri...may be able to reach 35 knots late this afternoon. again some degree of gusts will continue past sunset. lake clouds possible again friday night for tol/fdy. outlook...isolated non vfr possible friday night. non vfr at times saturday through monday. moderate ne winds continue through saturday. && marine... lake will continue to be rough through the first half of the weekend...subsiding on sunday. gale force winds are expected to develop today and continue tonight. it will be marginal at either end of the lake due to the shorter fetch. the increased northeast flow is due to high pressure residing near james bay that will press a little more further south today while low pressure develops off the southeast coast of the u.s. the high will weaken by monday but will still be influencing the lake on tuesday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...lakeshore flood warning until 10 am edt saturday for ohz003- 007>009. pa...none. marine...gale warning from 9 am this morning to 5 pm edt saturday for lez142>147-162>167. gale watch from 3 pm edt this afternoon through saturday afternoon for lez148-149-168-169. small craft advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for lez148- 149. small craft advisory until 9 am edt this morning for lez142>147. && $$ synopsis...lombardy near term...lombardy short term...lombardy long term...oudeman aviation...oudeman marine...oudeman hr. fzus51 kcle 020749 nshcle nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 349 am edt fri oct 2 2015 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142-143-021430- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- 349 am edt fri oct 2 2015 ..small craft advisory in effect until 9 am edt this morning... ..gale warning in effect from 9 am edt this morning through saturday afternoon... today...northeast winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots this afternoon. mostly cloudy. waves 5 to 8 feet. tonight...northeast gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots overnight. mostly cloudy. waves 5 to 8 feet. saturday...east winds to 30 knots. rain showers likely. waves 5 to 7 feet. saturday night...east winds to 30 knots diminishing to 10 to 20 knots. rain showers likely in the evening...then a chance of rain showers overnight. waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday. the water temperature off toledo is 64 degrees...off cleveland 69 degrees and off erie 68 degrees. $$ lez144>147-021430- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 349 am edt fri oct 2 2015 ..small craft advisory in effect until 9 am edt this morning... ..gale warning in effect from 9 am edt this morning through saturday afternoon... today...east winds to 30 knots becoming northeast gales to 35 knots this afternoon. mostly cloudy. waves 7 to 10 feet. tonight...northeast gales to 35 knots becoming east to 30 knots overnight. cloudy. a chance of rain showers overnight. waves 7 to 10 feet. saturday...east winds to 30 knots. rain showers likely. waves 5 to 8 feet. saturday night...east winds to 30 knots diminishing to 10 to 20 knots. rain showers likely in the evening...then a chance of rain showers overnight. waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday. the water temperature off toledo is 64 degrees...off cleveland 69 degrees and off erie 68 degrees. $$ lez148-149-021430- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 349 am edt fri oct 2 2015 ..small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm edt this afternoon... ..gale watch in effect from 3 pm edt this afternoon through saturday afternoon... today...northeast winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots this afternoon. partly sunny. waves 5 to 8 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. tonight...northeast gales to 35 knots becoming east to 30 knots overnight. mostly cloudy. a chance of rain showers overnight. waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. saturday...east winds to 30 knots diminishing to 20 to 25 knots. rain showers likely. waves 5 to 8 feet. saturday night...east winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 20 knots. rain showers likely in the evening...then a chance of rain showers overnight. waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday. the water temperature off toledo is 64 degrees...off cleveland 69 degrees and off erie 68 degrees. #toledo #weather