h1. Toledo Weather - Mon, Oct 12, 2015 TOL: Oct 12, 2015 6:52 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 51 F Humidity : 80% Wind Speed : S 8 mph Barometer : 29.69 in Dewpoint: 45 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (formerly Metcalf Airport) Oct 12, 2015 6:53 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 53 F Humidity : 74% Wind Speed : S 8 mph Barometer : 29.71 in Dewpoint: 45 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (near Lambertville) Oct 12, 2015 6:55 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 56 F Humidity : 70% Wind Speed : S 8 mph Barometer : 29.69 in Dewpoint: 46 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Oct 12, 2015 6:23 am Columbus Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Southwest wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 59. West wind 11 to 17 mph. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. West wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light after midnight. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Light west wind increasing to 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. hr. fxus61 kcle 121022 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 622 am edt mon oct 12 2015 synopsis... a cold front across the mid mississippi valley will move across the forecast area tonight. a secondary cold front will move across the area tuesday...ushering in much cooler conditions and some lake effect showers in the east. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... no significant changes to forecast...just tweaked cloud cover for 630 update. original discussion... today will be the last of the 70 degree weather in the nearterm. southerly flow will increase during the day ahead of approaching cold front. clear skies this morning will give way to thickening clouds this afternoon. with dew points in the 40s and limited moisture source think showers will have a difficult time this afternoon. && short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/... think there is a better chance of showers tonight with the cold front itself...but models still not in good agreement. nam is basically a dry forecast while the gfs and the ecmwf produce roughly a tenth of an inch overnight in the east. that seems more reasonable with the lift from the front and the orographic lift. so for now will just go with chance pops in the east tonight. think there will be a break tuesday morning...then a secondary cold front will blast the area tuesday. the 850 mb temps plunge to around zero c wednesday...setting up potential for lake effect showers...with lake to 850mb differential around 16c. with a nw to w flow showers should be confined to snowbelt area east of cle. for now will just continue with chance pops tuesday night into thursday. ridge of high pressure moves across upper ohio valley thursday choking off lake effect. but dry conditions will be short lived as both the gfs and ecmwf in good agreement moving next cold front across the area thursday night. && long term /friday through sunday/... long wave trough will remain over the region through the long term which generally produces cooler conditions. models are actually in decent agreement on the timing of storm systems moving through this flow. another cold front will move across the region on friday with a few showers near and ahead of it. colder air will then spill across the relatively warmer waters of lake erie saturday into sunday. this will likely cause some showers downwind of lake erie. these will be focused across ne ohio and nw pa. the showers will generally be north of a line from lorain to warren friday night then gradually shift eastward saturday into sunday. a few showers may linger into sunday afternoon across inland nw pa. it will be colder through the long term. locations that are able to clear friday night and saturday night will have a chance of frost. the best chances of frost currently look to be saturday night as winds decrease. more details on this will come through the week. so if you still have any tender vegetation you want to protect you may want to start planning now. highs through the long term are expected to be in the 50s. however we would not be surprised to see a few highs in the middle to upper 40s across extreme ne ohio into nw pa over the weekend. && aviation /06z monday through friday/... low level jet will move over the region today as a cold front moves into the central great lakes by early afternoon. winds will increase quickly after sunrise with fairly deep mixing anticipated under clear skies. this will allow south to southwest winds to increase to the 12 to 16 knot range. gusts will likely top out between 22 and 30 knots. not all that much moisture ahead of the front so any cloud cover will be minimal until mid to late afternoon. as the clouds increase winds should decrease slightly as it cuts off the deep mixing. however winds will remain elevated into the evening. the coverage of showers is uncertain but the best chances will be east of a line from mansfield to cleveland and may actually end up being closer to the oh/pa border. have only placed vicinity showers in the tafs at this point. outlook...non-vfr possible mainly ne oh and nw pa wed thru fri. && marine... low level jet moving over the region today will cause an increase in wind speeds. since we are in a warm advection pattern and winds will be blowing offshore it looks like it will be difficult to reach small craft advisory levels. it may be close to these levels by late afternoon but will hold off for now. as winds shift to a westerly direction in the wake of the front tonight waves will build east of the islands to ripley. a small craft advisory will be needed at this point then continue into at least wednesday morning. winds will shift back to the southwest on thursday with waves relaxing. however locations east of geneva-on-the-lake may continue to see 3 to 5 foot waves. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...djb near term...djb short term...djb long term...mullen aviation...mullen marine...mullen #toledo #weather