h1. Toledo Weather - Thu, Mar 24, 2016 _created at 1:05 p.m._ - *updated at 1:08 p.m.* Mild, very rainy day. The SPC lists our area has having a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. The only snow that has fallen this month occurred back on the first couple days of March. At 1:00 p.m., moderate to heavy rain fell over the Toledo area. more. h3. 1:08 p.m. Brief period of very heavy rain fell. h3. TOL Mar 24, 2016 12:52 pm Weather : Heavy Rain Fog/Mist Temperature : 55 F Humidity : 96% Wind Speed : WSW 5 mph Barometer : 29.58 in Dewpoint: 54 F Visibility : 1.25 statute miles h3. Short Term Forecast short term forecast national weather service cleveland oh 1244 pm edt thu mar 24 2016 ohz003-006>008-017-018-241745- ottawa-hancock-lucas-wood-sandusky-seneca- 1244 pm edt thu mar 24 2016 .now... at 1240 pm edt...doppler radar indicated showers over northwest ohio. the heaviest showers were along and west of a toledo to findlay line. the showers can produce rainfall from a quarter to a half an inch through 2pm. the winds will be gusting at times between 35 and 40 mph around the findlay area. h3. Forecast Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Mar 24, 2016 12:06 pm This Afternoon: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 64. Breezy, with a south wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Low around 35. Southwest wind 14 to 16 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Friday: Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 29. Light and variable wind. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. Sunday: A chance of rain after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night: Rain likely, mainly after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday: Rain likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night: A chance of rain before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 51. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. h3. AFD area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 911 am edt thu mar 24 2016 synopsis... low pressure over western illinois will move northeast across lower michigan this evening and continue off to the northeast tonight pulling a cold front across the area. high pressure from the mississippi valley will shift to he great lakes for friday and saturday. on sunday the area will remain ahead of a cold front that is expected to cross early monday morning. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... a low that will track ne across lower mi this evening will put the area in the warm sector today. this will lead to a warm and somewhat unstable day. a trailing cold front approaching from the west will cause numerous shra and some tsra to develop from west to east the rest of the day. a low level jet feeding into the cwa and a well mixed airmass could produce wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph in the sw so a wind advisory is in effect for that area. reasonable wind shear will be present so there is a marginal risk for an isolated severe storm or two. && short term /6 pm this evening through sunday night/... have thunderstorms mentioned for a few hours this evening...but that wanes as bulk of support for thunder exits and/or is fighting nightfall with limited instability in the first place. again some of the storms may be a bit on the gusty side at first. biggest change for tonight was to lower temperatures slower with the front tonight. the better push of cold air does not arrive until morning. light lingering showers possible through a large portion of the night as we await the passage of the upper trough axis. at this point some of the deeper moisture exits. between losing this mid level moisture and keeping temps a bit warmer have greatly reduced the mention of snow showers that had been in the forecast. limited the mention of a rain/snow mix to ne oh/nw pa for early friday morning. high pressure builds in overhead for friday afternoon and saturday. with its position north of the region...northerly flow will result. cooler temperatures can be expected near lake erie both days. it will be most pronounced saturday as southern areas begin to feel the effects of warm air advection. after 40s for highs on friday...saturday's highs will reach into the mid/upper 50s inland. next series of shortwaves drop southeast out of the pacific northwest/nrn rockies saturday and work to develop and bring a cold front to the area early next week. have slowed the advancement of this front...following closer to the ecmwf which already bringing the surface low out of the southern plains/tx panhandle and toward the mid mississippi and lower ohio valley. this will delay the arrival of the colder air...precip...and cloud cover. bring in the bulk of the rain showers for sunday night. temperatures will be dependent upon the track of the low. && long term /monday through wednesday/... models in better agreement today with a storm system tracking near the ohio river valley on monday. since there is more confidence we have increased rain chances for monday. cooler air arrives as the precipitation decreases monday night. this may end up producing a brief period of light snow across ne oh and nw pa. ridging at the surface and aloft is progged to occur tuesday into wednesday with dry conditions anticipated. seasonal temperatures monday into tuesday then warmer on wednesday. highs wednesday should return to the middle and upper 50s. && aviation /12z thursday through monday/... frontal boundary located near the south shore of lake erie as of 1130z. locations north of this boundary were seeing patchy ifr conditions while everywhere else vfr conditions prevailed. all locations expected to be vfr unless a passing shower can lower visibilities into the afternoon. as a cold front approaches this afternoon chances for showers/thunderstorms will increase from west to east. expect to see mvfr conditions with the showers but there is potential for a 2 to 3 hour window of ifr near any of the thunderstorms. gusty winds are expected ahead of the front with locations near and south of a line from kfdy to kmfd possibly reaching 45 knots. elsewhere the southerly wind will be breezy with gusts 30 to 35 knots. outlook...widespread non vfr thursday night...lingering across ne oh/nw pa into friday. && marine... warm front located near the south shore of lake erie will lift northward across the lake this morning but it may hang up across the eastern third of the lake. as the front passes winds will shift to a southerly direction and increase. winds speeds...especially across the western half of the lake should increase to the 15 to 20 knot range. since this is an offshore flow we have not issued a small craft advisory. low pressure is expected to track across southern ontario this evening into the overnight hours with a cold front crossing the lake from west to east. west to northwest winds will increase in the wake of the front with 15 to 25 knots expected. the longer fetch and the stronger winds will build waves to at least 3 to 5 feet. have gone ahead and issued a small craft advisory for late thursday night into friday. winds decrease by friday evening as high pressure builds across the lake. winds should be light through saturday night. the next storm system will begin to impact the lake by sunday with increasing northeast to east winds. h3. HWO hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 510 am edt thu mar 24 2016 ohz003-006>013-020>022-031-032-038-250915- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- medina-summit-portage-wayne-stark-holmes- 510 am edt thu mar 24 2016 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. winds will gust to 40 mph at times out of the south today. wind gusts with thunderstorms this afternoon and evening have the potential to exceed 50 mph. .days two through seven...friday through wednesday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. #rain