fxus61 kcle 251006
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
606 am edt mon apr 25 2016


synopsis... weakening low pressure will move east along a stationary
front near lake erie late tonight into tuesday pulling the front
south of the ohio river by tuesday night. another low will move out
of the plains wednesday night and slowly move up the ohio river
thursday night into friday. yet another low will follow a similar
track sunday through monday.

&&


near term /until 6 pm monday evening/... the weak low level jet
will continue to feed lower level moisture into the area today. by
the end of the day...the slow moving surface warm front should be
near a tol to yng line to provide focus for convergence. the airmass
will be moderately unstable by late afternoon. thus...the situation
could be supportive enough to allow some of the convection to the nw
to slide se along the warm front into the northern part of the cwa
near leri by the end of the day. since the cool lake will be a
stabilizing influence...not sure if the convection will be able to
move se across the lake or whether an outflow boundary will push out
from the convection and be the focus for convection to develop. will
keep chc pops for the north later today. there is enough instability
and shear so that there is a marginal risk for severe storms in the
nw part of the cwa late today.

temps will be warmest for at least the next week with highs in the
70s...except 60s along the snowbelt lakeshore where winds will come
in off the lake this afternoon.

&&


short term /6 pm monday evening through wednesday night/... the
upper low lifting ne out of the plains into mn will turn se and dive
thru the eastern lakes late tonight thru tue. this will induce a
surface low to move ese along the front into nrn pa by tue
afternoon. the front and low will lead to widespread convection
increasing from nw to se tonight into tue then tapering off from nw
to se late tue thru midnight tue night as the front is pulled south
of the ohio river. there is enough instability and shear so that
there is a marginal risk for severe storms in the nw part of the cwa
early tonight.

high pressure will push into the area from the nw on wed and should
push enough dry air south into the area to keep all but maybe the
extreme sw dry on wed. temps will be cooler with the ne
winds...especially near lake erie with highs 60 to 65 except only in
the lower 50s along the lakeshore.

the next s/w upper trough will push ne into the area wed night. this
will enhance the overrunning along the front to the south.
widespread shra and some possible thunder should push back to the ne
spreading across at least the sw half of the cwa by the end of wed
night.

tue and wed night should be seasonally cool with lows from the mid
to upper 30s far ne to the low to mid 40s for much of the rest of
the area.

&&


long term /thursday through sunday/...
split flow aloft will continue through the extended forecast with an
upper level low over new england and a broad trough over the western
and central united states. weakening upper level wave lifting out of
the trough to the west will slide across the lower ohio valley on
thursday. showers are expected on the northern flank of the system
as the baroclinic zone tightens up. high pressure extending from
central canada will strengthen as this system departs to the east
bringing dry conditions on friday and saturday. yet another area of
low pressure is expected to evolve out of the trough to the west
bringing additional chances of showers by sunday.

winds will primarily be out of the east to northeast off lake erie
which will keep temperatures a little below normal through the
period. lowered highs several degrees on thursday given the slightly
stronger northeast wind and tapered highs down near the lakeshore
through the weekend. 

&&


aviation /06z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions expected through late afternoon as a warm front lifts
north to near lake erie where it will stall this evening. isolated
showers or thunderstorms may develop in ne oh/nw pa late this
afternoon so included vicinity showers in yng/eri. otherwise low
pressure will slide east along the stalled frontal boundary tonight
with showers and scattered thunderstorms filling in. although timing
may need to be adjusted...best chances for precipitation come after
06z so brought some showers into cle overnight but will wait another
cycle to add to most other sites. light east to southeast winds will
shift to the southwest as the front lifts north today. winds will
gust to around 20 knots at tol/fdy/mfd this afternoon. 

outlook...non-vfr tuesday and tuesday night again wednesday night
through friday.

&&


marine...
a warm front will lift north to near lake erie this afternoon. a
wave of low pressure will slide east along the stalled frontal
boundary overnight...pulling a cold front south across the area on
tuesday. northeast winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots behind the
front on tuesday evening and waves will approach small craft
advisory conditions for a period of time. 

east to northeast winds will continue on the lake into next weekend
as high pressure becomes established over central canada. will look
for winds to increase into the 15-20 knot on thursday as a wave of
low pressure moves through the ohio valley. yet another area of low
pressure will track out of the plains towards the ohio valley on
sunday. 

&&


cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...adams
near term...adams
short term...adams
long term...kec
aviation...kec
marine...kec