h1. Toledo Weather - Mon, Jun 6, 2016 This morning, the Marginal Risk as a little below Toledo. Late this morning, the Marginal Risk included Toledo and southeast Michigan. Now the SPC may upgrade the risk to Slight. !https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7424/27430948351_77339080cd_o.gif! md 0829 concerning outlook upgrade for portions of the lower great lakes and ohio valley region mesoscale discussion 0829 nws storm prediction center norman ok 1041 am cdt mon jun 06 2016 areas affected...portions of the lower great lakes and ohio valley region concerning...outlook upgrade valid 061541z - 061645z summary...a categorical upgrade to slight risk is being planned for the 1630z day 1 convective outlook...for portions of the lower great lakes and ohio valley region. clusters of fast-moving thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will likely move across the area this afternoon. discussion...the latest observational data and short-range model guidance offer increasing confidence that fast-moving convective clusters will have the potential to produce dmgg wind gusts across portions of the lower great lakes and ohio valley region this afternoon. this activity will be in association with a vigorous upper-level disturbance approaching the area from the wnw...ahead of which a destabilizing air mass will exist amidst strong deep-layer flow. additional meteorological reasoning for the upgrade will be provided in the forthcoming day 1 convective outlook. ..cohen/weiss/bunting.. 06/06/2016 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...pbz...rlx...cle...iln...dtx...iwx...grr...ind... lat...lon 41568262 41727994 41287933 40657937 39788087 39258290 39588525 40288613 41278623 42508565 42808418 42588284 41568262 hr. !https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7286/27469136136_f347362b1b_o.gif! md 0830 concerning severe potential...watch possible for portions of cntrl and srn lower michigan and lake michigan mesoscale discussion 0830 nws storm prediction center norman ok 1118 am cdt mon jun 06 2016 areas affected...portions of cntrl and srn lower michigan and lake michigan concerning...severe potential...watch possible valid 061618z - 061845z probability of watch issuance...60 percent summary...fast-moving tstms with dmgg-wind potential will likely move across the area this afternoon...and the issuance of a severe thunderstorm watch may be required early this afternoon. discussion...organized convection has already developed across portions of e-cntrl wi immediately in advance of a mid-level vort max orbiting around the swrn rim of a deep cyclone centered over wrn quebec. forward extrapolation of the vort max takes it on a path reaching near detroit around 20z/21z and near cleveland ohio around 22z/23z. this suggests that dcva will spread across the region near and prior to peak heating. despite only limited low-level moisture available -- e.g. dewpoints in the lower/middle 50s -- steepening low/mid-level lapse rates with adiabatic cooling aloft related to the dcva will support sufficient buoyancy for tstm intensification this afternoon. upstream vwps at grb and mkx sample deep unidirectional flow with wlys at 30-45 kt through the lower/middle portion of the convective layer. this kinematic profile supporting elongated straight hodographs...combined with ample high-level flow enhancing convective ventilation...suggests that splitting tstms and fast-moving convective clusters will likely spread across the region during the afternoon hours. the relatively dry thermodynamic profiles will encourage evaporational cooling to accelerate downdrafts and convective momentum transport...facilitating the potential for dmgg wind gusts. isolated svr hail may also occur given cooling profiles aloft and anticipated splitting tstms. there is some uncertainty regarding the timing of the more robust increase in svr potential which extends to possible ww issuance...though the svr risk will likely increase this afternoon. ..cohen/weiss.. 06/06/2016 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...dtx...apx...iwx...grr... lat...lon 41918563 42188665 42988734 43738706 43888646 43928554 43958380 44008281 42748269 41938351 41918563 hr. md 0833 concerning severe potential...watch possible for much of ohio...portions of cntrl/ern indiana...wrn pa...wrn wv panhandle mesoscale discussion 0833 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0211 pm cdt mon jun 06 2016 areas affected...much of ohio...portions of cntrl/ern indiana...wrn pa...wrn wv panhandle concerning...severe potential...watch possible valid 061911z - 062145z probability of watch issuance...60 percent summary...portions of the lower great lakes and the ohio valley region are being monitored for possible severe thunderstorm watch issuance. discussion...convective development is ongoing across portions of the lower great lakes and the ohio valley region. visible satellite loops indicate relatively shallow cumulus development within a pocket of deeply mixed boundary-layer air from nrn indiana extending into nwrn ohio. the leading edge of the deeper mixing aligns with a weak sfc trough/wind-shift axis that has some semblance to a dryline...with sfc warming/drying to its w. this boundary arcs swwd into w-cntrl indiana...and agitated cu development is becoming concentrated in its proximity. farther e...a more widespread cu field is evident from central ohio ewd to the upper ohio valley...with a few showers developing from e of the columbus metro toward pittsburgh. the 18z special raob from wilmington ohio samples the slightly moister air e of the dryline-like boundary...while also indicating steep low-level lapse rates -- e.g. 9 c/km in the lowest 3 km agl. comparison of this raob to the 12z iln raob suggests ascent having taken place through an elevated warm layer above 650 mb...with cooling noted at the base of this warm layer. vis imagery confirms the overall manifestation of this warm layer via flat/laterally expanding cu cells. however...slight modifications to the most recent wilmington raob to account for additional diabatic sfc-layer heating suggest that sufficiently deep mlcape layers will arise by around 20z/21z for convective deepening to take place sufficiently for an increasing svr risk. the approach of a strong mid-level vort max and speed max from the wnw will further support convective development and intensification...initially evolving from the aforementioned incipient-convection regimes. upstream vwps at iwx and lot suggest that deep unidirectional/wly flow will continue to overspread the region...with 30-45 kt of flow through the lower/middle portion of the convective-cloud layer -- supporting ample convective momentum transport. dmgg wind gusts will be possible...especially given substantial sub-cloud evaporational cooling in the relatively dry environment. straight hodographs will also support splitting tstms capable of marginally svr hail given cooling thermal profiles aloft...although tstms should tend to congeal into small...fast-moving clusters with strong outflow winds. uncertainty regarding ww issuance stems from uncertainty in the timing of more robust increase in svr potential. this is especially the case given the presence of only modest buoyancy -- i.e. mlcape around 250-750 j/kg -- and weak low-level convergence. however...given the favorable kinematic profiles for dmgg wind gusts...and given the steep low-level lapse rate environment...convective and observational trends will continue to be monitored for possible severe thunderstorm watch issuance. ..cohen/weiss.. 06/06/2016 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...ctp...pbz...rlx...cle...iln...iwx...ind... lat...lon 40708579 41248337 41538043 41317877 40317905 39438118 39258337 39318604 39968648 40708579 !http://toledoweather.info/images/mcd0833.gif! hr. Image were 4:30 to 4:40 p.m., Mon, Jun 6, 2016. No watches nor warnings existed. Storms were moving east at 40 mph. !https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7684/27473480326_3a69114f3c.jpg! !https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7060/27473480416_bf1c990c8f.jpg! !https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7059/27473480466_64e026f0b6.jpg! #toledo #weather