toledo weather - sat, june 11, 2016 !http://toledoweather.info/images/mcd0875.gif! md 0875 concerning severe potential...watch possible for pa...nj...se ny mesoscale discussion 0875 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0132 pm cdt sat jun 11 2016 areas affected...pa...nj...se ny concerning...severe potential...watch possible valid 111832z - 111930z probability of watch issuance...60 percent summary...a potential for wind damage and hail is expected to develop this afternoon from ern oh across srn and cntrl pa into nrn nj and se ny. ww issuance may be needed over the next hour or two as storms initiate and convective coverage increases with the most likely location of the watch across ern oh into srn pa. discussion...latest sfc analysis shows a sfc trough extending sewd across cntrl ny into nrn nj with a moist airmass to the west of the sfc trough. sfc winds are westerly across much of pa into ern oh with sfc dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s f. as sfc temps continue to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s f...a corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop. on the nrn edge of instability...visible satellite imagery shows a field of cumulus present near and to the west of state college extending into ne oh with radar showing several new echoes over cntrl pa and nrn oh. the latest esrl hrrr takes this convection and develops several thunderstorms over the next hour or two with this activity moving sewd across ern oh and srn pa by late this afternoon. other storms may develop in se ny along the axis of strongest low-level flow. the latest wsr-88d vwps along the mcd corridor including the pittsburgh 18z sounding show unidirectional wly low to mid-level flow with substantial speed shear in the lowest 3 km. this along with steepening low-level lapse rates should support a wind damage threat with the better organized multicells. hail could also occur with the stronger updrafts. ..broyles/weiss.. 06/11/2016 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...okx...aly...phi...bgm...ctp...lwx...pbz...cle... lat...lon 39778007 39948122 40438211 40968207 41148163 41058031 41037866 41057633 42317526 42617478 42687444 42517378 42117342 41367370 40057478 39707620 39727871 39778007 hr. appears a line may form across the northern third of ohio west through indiana. basically south of the turnpike. storms should move e-se. toledo may be north of this afternoon's storms. we might stay dry to dinner time. hr. First storm of the day trying to go up over Norwalk right now in Huron county. Area of congested CU in that part of the state is currently the most likely point where the cap will be broken first. Additional CU developing generally south of the turnpike throughout the entire area. Still expecting coverage to be low, but anything that manages to get going will probably go severe. We currently have a 30 point dewpoint depression (difference between air temp and dewpoint) which would signal a good environment for downbursts with collapsing storms. Storms will also remain high-based in this environment, so that all but eliminates the tornado threat unless the lower levels get saturated. Regardless, enjoy the day...be careful in the heat. ! posted by JustaSooner on Jun 11, 2016 at 02:11:40 pm hr. TOL: Jun 11, 2016 1:52 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 93 F Humidity : 37% Wind Speed : W 16 mph - Gust 26 mph Barometer : 29.92 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (formerly Metcalf Airport) Jun 11, 2016 1:53 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 93 F Humidity : 38% Wind Speed : WNW 18 mph - Gust 24 mph Barometer : 29.92 in Dewpoint: 64 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (near Lambertville) Jun 11, 2016 1:55 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 92 F Humidity : 40% Wind Speed : W 8 mph Barometer : 29.93 in Dewpoint: 64 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 94 F hr. spc 12:28 p.m. EDT ..iowa to wrn oh... a strongly unstable air mass is in place across this region indicating potential for strong updrafts to develop. however...with exception of boundaries generated from weakening convection in srn ia and an mcv over nwrn il...forcing mechanisms for convective development are weak and winds aloft/vertical shear are minimal. a few strong storms may develop within this zone with potential to produce local strong wind gusts/hail but overall threat appears to be limited by the weak vertical shear. hr. Cle NWS at 11:43 a.m. q. temperatures are climbing fast and with the lack of cloud cover they are ahead of schedule. i will tweak the temperatures up a few degree for northeast ohio and northwest pa. i will decrease the cloud cover for this afternoon. 700mb cap is holding strong and not likely to break until this evening. q.. hr. if we stay sunny with only some thin, broken, high cloudiness, then we should hit at least 95 degrees. the record is 97. normally, we have too much haze and low cumulus clouds that knock down incoming solar radiation and prevent our temps from exceeding the low 90s. it's unusual for Toledo to reach 95 degrees or higher. we shall see. some small cumulus clouds are forming to the west. TOL: Jun 11, 2016 12:52 pm Weather : A Few Clouds Temperature : 92 F Humidity : 40% Wind Speed : W 20 mph - Gust 26 mph Barometer : 29.94 in Dewpoint: 64 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 94 F (formerly Metcalf Airport) Jun 11, 2016 12:53 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 91 F Humidity : 39% Wind Speed : W 17 mph - Gust 26 mph Barometer : 29.94 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (near Lambertville) Jun 11, 2016 12:55 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 91 F Humidity : 41% Wind Speed : WNW 7 mph Barometer : 29.94 in Dewpoint: 65 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 93 F hr. TOL: Jun 11, 2016 11:52 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 90 F Humidity : 41% Wind Speed : WNW 16 mph - Gust 25 mph Barometer : 29.95 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 91 F (formerly Metcalf Airport) Jun 11, 2016 11:53 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 90 F Humidity : 41% Wind Speed : W 18 mph - Gust 28 mph Barometer : 29.95 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 91 F Jun 11, 2016 11:55 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 90 F Humidity : 43% Wind Speed : W 15 mph - Gust 20 mph Barometer : 29.95 in Dewpoint: 64 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 92 F hr. It's a nice, warm, breezy, sunny day. Toledo area temps around 11:00 a.m. were in the upper 80s. Latest info from the Cle NWS: q. 12z dtx sounding shows a *significant cap* and a dry sounding. convective temperature is 99 degrees. *these factors will significantly limit thunderstorm develop particularly early this afternoon.* chances for storms may improve later this evening as the front approaches. current high temperatures appear to be on track [mid 90s]. q.. hr. spc ac 111249 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 0749 am cdt sat jun 11 2016 valid 111300z - 121200z ...there is an enh risk of svr tstms over parts of eastern mt and western nd... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over parts of the northern great plains... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across portions of mt/nd... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from parts of the great basin across the northern rockies... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from the mid/upper ms valley into southern new england... ...summary... scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds...potentially very large hail...and perhaps one or two tornadoes are forecast to affect portions of eastern montana and western north dakota this afternoon through tonight. isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated from portions of new england to the mid-atlantic westward to iowa. ...new england into pa/nj... water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough moving across eastern ontario...with an associated cluster of showers and thunderstorms affecting central ny. this activity will track eastward early today into southern new england...helping to maintain clouds and a relatively cool/dry environment. however south of these storms...a favorable thermodynamic setup is expected to develop by mid-late afternoon as dewpoints rise into the 50s and daytime heating contributes to moderate cape vales. it appears likely that clusters of strong tstms will develop over parts of southern ny and northern pa...spreading southeastward through the slight risk area during the late afternoon and early evening. hail and damaging winds are the main threats with these storms...although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. ...midwest states... morning satellite and radar loops show a cluster of thunderstorms ongoing over parts of ia. this activity is expected to weaken dramatically by early afternoon...allowing strong heating/destabilization to occur along a surface boundary. the result will be isolated thunderstorm development from ia into parts of northern il/ind. this area is beneath upper ridge axis and forecast soundings show weak deep layer shear. a few slow-moving severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds are possible...but overall risk appears marginal. ...northern high plains... a shortwave trough currently over ut/az is forecast to track northward into the northern high plains by tonight. the result will likely be another cluster of severe storms over parts of eastern mt and western nd this afternoon/evening. storms will initiate as large scale forcing impinges on better low level moisture along the bighorns...and track quickly northward into eastern mt. forecast soundings show strong mid/upper level winds favorable for fast-moving storms capable of damaging wind gusts and very large hail. this threat will likely persist much of the evening and spread north-northeastward across western nd. ..hart/leitman.. 06/11/2016 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 1039 am edt sat jun 11 2016 for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. there will be a chance of thunderstorms across the area on this afternoon and evening. if thunderstorms do develop...there is the potential for strong to severe storms capable of producing winds gusts up to 60 mph or large hail. .days two through seven...sunday through friday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed. hr. TOL: Jun 11, 2016 10:52 am Weather : Fair and Breezy Temperature : 87 F Humidity : 46% Wind Speed : W 23 mph - Gust 28 mph Barometer : 29.95 in Dewpoint: 64 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 88 F hr. JustaSooner will be able to provide details about timing of any thunderstorms. Outdoors this afternoon, the heat and humidity could be a bigger annoyance than rain. I'd have to check the stats, but this could end up being the warmest day in three or four years. Factor in the humidity, and it will feel a bit rugged. Toledo forecast - Last Update: Jun 11, 2016 6:11 am bq. *Today:* A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a *high near 94.* West wind 15 to 17 mph. *Chance of precipitation is 30%.* New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Excerpts from the 8:01 a.m. Area Forecast Discussion: q. fairly difficult forecast to put together for saturday. the warm front that moved through the area on friday has ushered in a warm, moist, muggy air mass. temperatures at 4am this morning remain in the mid to upper 70s and dew points are in the mid 60s, *more characteristic of coastal carolina or the gulf coast* and not northern ohio/northwest pennsylvania. daytime heating will allow for temperatures to soar into the low to mid 90s for most areas, as cloud cover will not be an issue. temperatures could approach record highs as all records sit in the 90s. q.. TOL's record high temp for June 11 is 97 degrees, set in 1933. That record should be safe today. Longer excerpt from the Area Forecast Discussion about the chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and/or late tonight. It seems that the better chances for storms exist to our east and west. q. went with a slight chance pop in the early afternoon, increasing to a chance pop later in the day. spc has our area outlined in a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail, except for trumbull and mahoning counties that are in a slight risk for the same severe threat. *but, saturday feels like a "boom or bust" day depending on whether the cap can be broken.* the forecasting concerns for the day are the precipitation chances and severe weather threat. the air mass in place is certainly ripe for thunderstorm development and severe storms at that. forecast soundings across the cwa show afternoon cape values of 2000-3000 j/kg, dcape values of 1000-1500 j/kg, surface to 3km lapse rates greater than 8c/km, dry air aloft, and 0-6km bulk shear values greater than 20 knots, which are all indicative of severe thunderstorms with a damaging wind and hail threat. however...there are major concerns with a forcing mechanism to initiate thunderstorms with a *large cap in place in the low levels, which would prohibit the development of any convection at all.* for more diurnally driven storms to develop in this air mass, there is a need for more moisture in the low levels, even in such a muggy environment. winds look to stay breezy in the 15 to 20 knot range from the west and could keep things well mixed, preventing dew points from getting any higher than the mid to upper 60s. however, *if the area can see temperature/dew point spreads of say 90/72 on saturday, diurnally driven convection may occur in this environment.* the other option would be some sort of boundary to initiate convection. a cold front will eventually make its way across the area late saturday into the early part of sunday and will likely bring some sort of area of elevated showers and storms as the area dries out and cools off behind the front. however, could the remnant outflow from friday's mcs or a pre- frontal trough move through the area and provide enough lift to get convection to form saturday afternoon/evening? it's certainly possible, but not probable. *more typical/certain sources of lift seem to be off to our east with favorable jet dynamics or west with the more hearty boundary left behind from friday's mcs.* q.. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 521 am edt sat jun 11 2016 for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. there will be a chance of thunderstorms across the area on this afternoon and evening. if thunderstorms do develop...there is the potential for strong to severe storms capable of producing winds gusts up to 60 mph or large hail. .days two through seven...sunday through friday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed. hr. Sunny morning. TOL: Jun 11, 2016 7:52 am Weather : Fair and Breezy Temperature : 77 F Humidity : 64% Wind Speed : WSW 21 mph Barometer : 29.93 in Dewpoint: 64 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles hr. area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 801 am edt sat jun 11 2016 synopsis... northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania will be hot and humid for saturday ahead of a cold front that will move south across the area on saturday night. high pressure will build in behind the cold front for sunday and monday. a trough of low pressure will then attempt to move into the area late on monday into tuesday. && near term /through tonight/... no major changes with this update...just updated the first couple hours of the forecast to current trends with temps, dew points, clouds, and precipitation based on radar. original near term discussion... fairly difficult forecast to put together for saturday. the warm front that moved through the area on friday has ushered in a warm, moist, muggy air mass. temperatures at 4am this morning remain in the mid to upper 70s and dew points are in the mid 60s, more characteristic of coastal carolina or the gulf coast and not northern ohio/northwest pennsylvania. as the mcs that rolled through wisconsin and michigan late on friday moves to our northeast into canada and new york, the weather should start fairly dry for the area on saturday. the only exception could be far ne oh/nw pa, where some convective debris from this mcs could leave behind a shower or two and some cloud cover. elsewhere, daytime heating will allow for temperatures to soar into the low to mid 90s for most areas, as cloud cover will not be an issue. temperatures could approach record highs as all records sit in the 90s. the forecasting concerns for the day are the precipitation chances and severe weather threat. the air mass in place is certainly ripe for thunderstorm development and severe storms at that. forecast soundings across the cwa show afternoon cape values of 2000-3000 j/kg, dcape values of 1000-1500 j/kg, surface to 3km lapse rates greater than 8c/km, dry air aloft, and 0-6km bulk shear values greater than 20 knots, which are all indicative of severe thunderstorms with a damaging wind and hail threat. however...there are major concerns with a forcing mechanism to initiate thunderstorms with a large cap in place in the low levels, which would prohibit the development of any convection at all. for more diurnally driven storms to develop in this air mass, there is a need for more moisture in the low levels, even in such a muggy environment. winds look to stay breezy in the 15 to 20 knot range from the west and could keep things well mixed, preventing dew points from getting any higher than the mid to upper 60s. however, if the area can see temperature/dew point spreads of say 90/72 on saturday, diurnally driven convection may occur in this environment. the other option would be some sort of boundary to initiate convection. a cold front will eventually make its way across the area late saturday into the early part of sunday and will likely bring some sort of area of elevated showers and storms as the area dries out and cools off behind the front. however, could the remnant outflow from friday's mcs or a pre- frontal trough move through the area and provide enough lift to get convection to form saturday afternoon/evening? it's certainly possible, but not probable. more typical/certain sources of lift seem to be off to our east with favorable jet dynamics or west with the more hearty boundary left behind from friday's mcs. given all of the above... went with a slight chance pop in the early afternoon, increasing to a chance pop later in the day. spc has our area outlined in a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail, except for trumbull and mahoning counties that are in a slight risk for the same severe threat. but, saturday feels like a "boom or bust" day depending on whether the cap can be broken. && short term /sunday through monday night/... the weather across northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania looks to be quiet on sunday as high pressure builds in behind the cold front. ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface should squash any precipitation chances. however, northerly flow will allow for cooler air to settle in and temperatures could be a couple degrees below climatology for mid-june with only low to mid 70s for highs on sunday. for sunday night, northerly flow continues and relatively clear skies may allow for temperatures to really drop into the low 50s and even upper 40s in northwest pennsylvania, which would be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. high pressure still looks to be in place for monday, which will continue to keep things relatively quiet. winds will shift around to the west/southwest in the low levels, allowing for temperatures to return to average, but northwest flow remains aloft on the back side of a large trough. models are hinting at a piece of energy to ripple through the trough aloft and a trough of low pressure to move in late on monday, so brought in a chance of precipitation for monday night. && long term /tuesday through friday/... high pressure will set up north of the lake through mid-week with northwesterly flow aloft. enough moisture will remain across our southern counties to keep a low pop going through wednesday. an area of low pressure will move from the plains towards the upper midwest on wednesday then slide southeast towards the ohio valley on thursday. chances of showers and thunderstorms will expand northward on thursday as a warm front tries to lift north to central ohio. temperatures will be near seasonal norms, except in the northeast near lake erie where the flow off the lake will keep conditions slightly below normal. && aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/... timing and potential for thunderstorms will be the challenge for the afternoon and evening hours. model soundings depict a capping inversion which is expected to limit the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. lingering outflow boundaries from convection overnight may lead to some convective development this afternoon but it will be hard to determine when or where this will occur. left a vcts in the southern terminals where it seems there might be a slightly better chances of eroding the cap...followed by a vcts at cle/eri this evening as the front arrives from the north. any thunderstorms that develop today could produce gusty winds to 40+ knots and brief heavy rainfall. west southwest winds will be breezy this afternoon with most locations gusting to 20-25 knots. a cold front will move south across the area tonight with a wind shift to the north between 04- 08z. outlook...non vfr possible in the west tues and wed in scattered thunderstorms. && marine... southwesterly winds will increase to 15-20 knots on lake erie this morning as a trough associated with a warm front passes north of the lake. the increased flow will lead to waves building to 2 to 5 feet on the east end of the lake today. given the flow will be parallel to the shoreline and the stronger winds will only last a few hours have decided to hold off on a small craft advisory. however conditions will be choppy on the east end of the lake with a moderate risk of rip currents. a cold front will move south across the lake tonight with winds shifting to the north and waves in the nearshore waters building to 2 to 4 feet late tonight into sunday. high pressure will build over the central great lakes on monday then set up north of the lakes through mid-week. this will lead to a prolonged period of northeast to easterly flow. winds are generally expected to be 15 knots or less with waves peaking in the 2 to 4 foot range on as a warm front approaches from the south by thursday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...sefcovic near term...sefcovic short term...sefcovic long term...kec aviation...kec marine...kec hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jun 11, 2016 6:11 am Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. West wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 77. North wind 9 to 13 mph. Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53. North wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.