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Toledo Weather - Mon, June 13, 2016 TOL: Jun 13, 2016 2:52 pm Weather : Mostly Cloudy Temperature : 78 F Humidity : 32% Wind Speed : W 7 mph Barometer : 30.01 in Dewpoint: 46 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 617 am edt mon jun 13 2016 lez142-143-162-163-ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-141030- lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-lucas-wood- ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot-crawford-marion-morrow- 617 am edt mon jun 13 2016 this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. no hazardous weather is expected today or tonight. .days two through seven...tuesday through sunday. thunderstorms are expected to develop wednesday afternoon and evening. some of the storms may be strong to severe...with the potential for downburst winds and large hail. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed. hr. Day 3 SPC outlook for Wed, Jun 15 has the Toledo area under a Slight Risk for severe weather already. spc ac 130729 day 3 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 0229 am cdt mon jun 13 2016 valid 151200z - 161200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the upper midwest...southward into the ohio and middle mississippi valleys... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across surrounding areas...from the great lakes into the southern appalachians/tennessee valley/ozark plateau and parts of the lower central plains... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of eastern montana into western north dakota... ...summary... severe storms are possible from parts of the upper midwest into the ohio and middle mississippi valleys wednesday into wednesday night. ...synopsis... within the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies...only a slow eastward movement of a broad closed low centered over the canadian maritimes is expected during this forecast period. upstream...it appears that there may be further amplification of large-scale troughing near the pacific coast. east of this latter feature...mid/upper ridging is forecast to continue to build from the lower rio grande valley through the lower northern u.s. plains into the hudson bay region. between this ridging and the eastern low...a significant impulse...remnant from an upper low/troughing now progressing across southern california and the intermountain west...is forecast to slowly turn southeastward across the upper midwest/great lakes region. as it does...mid/upper flow is expected to transition to at least broadly cyclonic across the middle mississippi and ohio valleys. a surface frontal low may accompany the upper impulse across the upper midwest and great lakes region...with the front otherwise remaining quasi-stationary across the northern plains...and across parts of the lower great lakes and central appalachians/mid atlantic coast region. to the south of this front...seasonably moist boundary layer air /with surface dew points near or above 70f/ is expected to continue to advect east northeast of the middle mississippi valley. ...upper midwest/mid mississippi and ohio valleys... modest mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed layer air...coupled with the boundary layer moistening...are expected to contribute to large cape on the order of 2000-3000+ j/kg by peak heating wednesday. strongest mid-level forcing for ascent may be mostly concentrated along the frontal zone across the upper midwest and great lakes region. however...inhibition is expected to be weak enough to allow for considerable thunderstorm development to the south...across parts of northern and central illinois...perhaps eastern missouri...by late afternoon. increasingly west northwesterly deep layer mean flow and shear may only be around 20-30 kt...but this may be sufficient to contribute to organizing thunderstorm clusters. some severe hail is possible...but potentially damaging wind gusts may be the primary severe threat as activity propagates into/through the ohio valley through wednesday evening. ...eastern montana/western north dakota... somewhat similar to tuesday...residual boundary layer instability ...coupled with developing large-scale forcing for ascent associated with another impulse progressing across the northern rockies...may contribute to isolated strong/severe storm development late wednesday afternoon and evening. ..kerr.. 06/13/2016 click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jun 13, 2016 9:27 am Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind. Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 1am and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. East wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 81. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 83. Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 86. hr. area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 931 am edt mon jun 13 2016 synopsis... high pressure will remain over the area today into tuesday. a warm front will lift over the area wednesday...with a low pressure system tracking se across the area thursday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... a few changes to the cloud cover with this issuance. i will decrease the cloud trend as clouds are struggling to move south. temperatures appear to be on track. original discussion... high pressure centered over the great lakes will remain over the area today. so dry at the lower and mid levels today that the only weather to contend with will be some dense cirrus...now across the upper midwest. it will spread across the forecast area today filtering the sunshine. as far as temps just knocked off a degree or two off of yesterday afternoons high temps due to the added cloud cover. && short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/... warm front stretching from iowa...across the mid mississippi valley will be the focus of any convection. models a little slower moving the high pressure system east of the area. in fact both the nam and gfs keep area high and dry overnight so removed the mention of convection for the overnight period. gradual increase in moisture and temperatures through the period as the high drifts east on tuesday. so for now will just leave chance pops going in the west for tuesday. best chance for convection will be wednesday as the warm front lifts slowly across the forecast area. then again on thursday as a low pressure system slides se across the forecast area. && long term /friday through sunday/... drier air will arrive on friday as high pressure builds south across the lakes region. temperatures will be near seasonal averages on friday with a slow warming trend over the weekend as the upper level ridge expands across the great lakes. temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s by sunday. && aviation /12z monday through friday/... high pressure will be overhead today then slowly drift east on tuesday. vfr conditions are expected through the taf cycle. the only exception to this is mvfr clouds located just east of eri expand westward through 14z. otherwise high clouds will increase today and lower overnight. can not rule out a few sprinkles overnight but best chance would be towards tol late tonight. winds will generally be 10 knots or less. outlook...non vfr possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms on wednesday and thursday. && marine... winds and waves will continue to decrease early this morning with lake breezes developing this afternoon. high pressure overhead today will set up across the eastern great lakes through mid-week with easterly winds on the lake. winds on the western basin will increase to 15-20 knots on tuesday and a small craft advisory may be needed as waves build down the long fetch of the lake. an area of low pressure will move across the lake wednesday night and thursday causing winds to be somewhat variable before finally setting up out of the northeast on friday. the northeasterly flow at 15-20 knots will once again lead to choppy conditions with onshore flow. high pressure will set up for next weekend with improving marine conditions. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...djb near term...garnet short term...djb long term...kec aviation...kec marine...kec #toledo #weather