Toledo Weather - Wed, Jun 15, 2016 Light rain falling at 9:43 a.m. with occasional thunder. SPC now shows the border between Slight and Marginal risks through the Toledo area. The Slight Risk covers Ohio, east of I-77 and south of the turnpike. Yesterday morning, we were in the Enhanced Risk. Then by mid-day yesterday, the Enhanced Risk was removed, and we were solidly covered by a Slight Risk. This morning we were barely in the northern edge of the Slight Risk. And now at mid-morning, the Slight Risk continues to shift southward. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 534 am edt wed jun 15 2016 lez142>145-162>165-ohz003-006>010-017>020-027>031-036>038-047-160945- lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-lucas-wood- ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-wyandot- crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox- 534 am edt wed jun 15 2016 this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. thunderstorms are expected to develop today. there is a slight chance that some storms could become severe with the potential to create large hail and damaging winds. .days two through seven...thursday through tuesday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed. hr. !https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7302/27584677022_f514022e6b_z.jpg! hr. TOL: Jun 15, 2016 5:52 am Weather : Overcast Temperature : 66 F Humidity : 68% Wind Speed : ESE 5 mph Barometer : 29.86 in Dewpoint: 55 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jun 15, 2016 3:18 am Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind becoming south 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 77. Southwest wind 10 to 14 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday Night: A chance of showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. North wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 81. East wind 13 to 18 mph. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 84. Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 86. Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. hr. area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 308 am edt wed jun 15 2016 synopsis... a warm front will lift northeast into ohio today ahead of low pressure dropping across the great lakes. by evening the warm front should be near a toledo to mansfield line. the warm front will move east of the area thursday morning as a cold front moves in from the west. the low will move southeast across ohio thursday dragging the cold front with it. high pressure will build back over the region for the end of the week. && near term /through today/... a warm front roughly near an kord-kcvg line at 06z will lift northeast and reach near a ktol-kmfd line by 00z this evening. current area of convection across nrn indiana and srn wi being supported by good isentropic lift over the warm front just ahead of increasing boundary layer cape. the nam also shows a short wave moving into the area. this translates east through the day with the warm front. believe the current activity will combine with developing convection in north central indiana and move east into nwrn ohio this morning...likely weakening as it does as it outruns the best instability. this will continue east impacting nern oh and nwrn pa late morning early afternoon. meanwhile by late morning/early afternoon expect the warm front to be moving into the west with convection likely developing along of just west of the front in the unstable air. this too should then translate east through the late afternoon early evening. spc has continued a slight chance for the western 2/3rds of the area for the afternoon activity. highs from the mid and upper 70s nwrn pa to the mid 80s southwest. will have likely pops west and increasing to likely in the east by 00z. && short term /tonight through saturday night/... rain/thunder chances remain in the forecast tonight through thursday night. tonight the warm front will continue to move slowly northeast into nern oh as the parent low drops southeast across lower mi. by 12z thursday the associated cold front will also be approaching from the wnw. capes remain elevated through the night across the area with most of the area in the warm sector between fronts. will have likely pops in the east for the evening to catch what will likely be ongoing showers/tstms from after afternoon but will lower to chance for the overnight as the nam brings in slightly drier air from the west. thursday however the surface low will drop southeast across the area dragging the cold front with it. would expect showers and a chance of thunder given the upper support. will taper pops thursday night. friday through saturday night high pressure will build in from the northwest. expect clear/pc skies and no pops. highs around 80 thursday and friday and in the lower 80s saturday. && long term /sunday through tuesday/... models in good agreement for sunday with large area of high pressure just se of the forecast area. this will keep area high and dry and also set up a warming trend. the temps sunday and monday will push back into the mid to upper 80s. but the above normal conditions will be short lived as models push next cold front across the forecast area monday night into tuesday. likely see convection with the front...but this far out will leave chance pops going. high pressure builds back over the area wednesday. && aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/... vfr conditions will continue through the overnight. a warm front stretching from near chi into sw ohio will lift slowly ne wednesday. models disagree on forecast. nam has showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front reaching northwest ohio toward daybreak and moving east wednesday morning. gfs on the other hand has nothing in the morning...but showers and thunderstorms developing in nw oh during the afternoon and moving east. strong to severe thunderstorms are a possibility wednesday afternoon and evening but low confidence trying to time the thunderstorm threat at any given location. for now will keep morning showers with tsra redeveloping in the west during the afternoon. winds should veer from east to south. outlook...non vfr at times wednesday night through thursday in showers and thunderstorms. && marine... the east winds will gradually veer to the southeast late today into the overnight as the warm front across sw oh moves across the lake. mariners should be alert for thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening hours. some of the storms could become strong to severe. models continue to move a low pressure system across the lake thursday. potential for a small craft advisory friday into friday night as the canadian high pressure builds across the lake and a northeast flow sets up. conditions should improve over the weekend as the gradient weakens. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...tk near term...tk short term...tk long term...djb aviation...djb marine...djb hr. spc ac 150556 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1256 am cdt wed jun 15 2016 valid 151200z - 161200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over ern mt... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over cntrl/srn wi... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over portions of oh and tn valleys... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over portions of the nrn rockies and nrn plains... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from the great lakes and oh valley swwd into w tx... ...summary... isolated strong to severe storms are expected wednesday into wednesday evening across a portion of the great lakes into the ohio...tennessee and lower mississippi valleys. other strong to severe storms remain possible later wednesday night over a portion of northeast montana. ...synopsis... shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum currently moving into mn is expected to track sewd across the upper ms valley and great lakes region as it rounds the upper ridge extending across the cntrl conus. surface low will move sewd just ahead of the shortwave and will likely be centered over lwr mi by 12z thu. farther w...a shortwave trough will move quickly through the base of the upper low centered just of the british columbia/washington coast...progressing across the nrn rockies and into srn alberta. ...upper great lakes...oh and tn valleys... ongoing tstms moving across the mid ms valley complicate the forecast with uncertainty regarding airmass overturning...location of outflow boundaries...and how far east the system progresses. current thinking is that outflow associated with this system will lead to additional tstms development during the early afternoon across portions of the oh and tn valleys. environment here will be weakly sheared but a warm and very moist airmass will support strong instability and tstms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. farther nw /across wi/...convergence near the surface low will likely result in tstms development amidst an airmass characterized by temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. these conditions will support at least moderate instability. mid-level flow will gradually strengthen with the resulting vertical shear supportive of rotating updrafts capable of hail and strong wind gusts. sely surface winds near the warm front may also result in increased low-level shear and low tornado potential. ...cntrl/ern mt... strong swly flow aloft is already in place over mt with the persistence and strengthening of the flow anticipated during the day. as a result...lee troughing will deepen with sely upslope flow advecting low-level moisture into ern mt. additionally...lee cyclogenesis appears probable across ne wy with the resulting low tracking nwd across ern mt late in the period...further strengthening upslope flow into the region. sely upslope flow beneath strong mid-level flow aloft will result in a strongly sheared environment with 0-6 km bulk shear around 50-60 kt. airmass over the region is expected to stay capped throughout the day before continued moisture advection and a strong llj initiate elevated tstms during the evening. given the strong shear...elevated supercells are anticipated with a resulting primary threat for large hail. even with stable low-levels...the strength of the flow and anticipated strength of the storms should also lead to a few strong winds gusts. ...portions of the srn plains and srn high plains... very warm and humid conditions are expected across the region with isolated tstms possible as daytime heating destabilizes the airmass. shear will be weak but strong to extreme instability -- mlcape from 2000 to 4000 j per kg -- anticipated will result in the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts with any storms that do form. ...carolinas... scattered to numerous tstms are expected amidst modest flow and a moist airmass...resulting in the potential for a few damaging wind gusts. ..mosier/gleason.. 06/15/2016 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z !https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7687/27685361655_9501a33990_z.jpg! #toledo #weather