Toledo Weather - Wed, Jun 15, 2016 area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 315 pm edt wed jun 15 2016 synopsis... a warm front will lift north and through the region tonight. an area of low pressure will move in from the northwest and cross the area on thursday bringing showers and thunderstorms. this will be followed by high pressure for friday and into the weekend. && near term /until 6 am thursday morning/... the capped airmass in place over the area is inhibiting late afternoon convection (h700 temperatures around 8c). skies have broken over most of the western counties with temperatures in the 80s in many areas. highest temperature readings have been at cle where some added downslope and break in the clouds have pushed temps to 88f. the dew points have jumped to around 70f in the west as the warm front moves into the area. the storm prediction center still has a large portion of the area in a slight risk for severe weather. the forecast shear values appear marginal however the high capes could be sufficient for severe mainly in the west. forecast soundings indicate the potential for the cap to break around 20z- 22z. the eastern half of the forecast area has been insulated by the clouds and still has dew points in the 50s, which will keep out any threat for strong/severe storms. in the west the best chance for strong storms will be if any development upstream and advects in before 00z. have isolated showers in the east and a brief window of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the west. overall have downplayed the potential convection given the strong cap and limited area of high instabilities in the area. there will lull in activity as weak subsidence move in overnight. meanwhile, an area of low pressure will move towards the area from the northwest, increasing rain chances by thursday morning. temperatures will cool very little overnight as the warm front and moisture advection prevent lows from dipping much below 70. in the east temperatures could cool early and then warm before daybreak. hr. area forecast discussion national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 336 pm edt wed jun 15 2016 discussion... the focus over the next 24-36 hours is on the track of the upper level low/cold pool (-12 c at 500 mb) currently centered over/near the western tip of lake superior. mid level dry slot and warming out ahead of this feature is expected to limit convective activity for the rest of the day into this evening, as we struggle to bypass low level cap. even with the 12z nam indicating more reasonable dew pts around 70 degrees, and mlcapes around 2000 j/kg late today, no qpf/convection is indicated. however, will still hold onto isolated severe threat if any enhanced low level convergence allows a cell or two to go up, as cape and 0-6 km remains substantial with still areas of backed surface flow. good forcing/height falls will overspread southeast michigan overnight into tomorrow morning, which is expected to support a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms. mid level lapse rates (700- 500 mb) are weak, mostly under 6 c/km, so chances for severe are quite low after midnight as daytime surface/low level instability wanes, except toward the ohio border where low level moisture advection/pooling looks to be maximized as nose of 35 knot low level jet pushes through in the 7-12z time frame. the circulation at the surface and aloft will track through southeast michigan tomorrow. mucapes less than 1000 j/kg will support a chance of non-severe thunderstorms. still sufficient moisture (pw values 1.5+ inches) and deep warm layer to support heavy rainfall, especially on northeast flank of the circulation. pronounced upper level ridge remains on track to build into the central great lakes friday-saturday, as 500 mb heights increase to around 590 dam. low level northeast flow emitting from surface high over eastern great lakes will keep humidity levels on the low side for june standards and mute the warmup slightly, holding maxes in the 80s, as temperatures rise from the morning lows in the 50s for most part. hr. tornado watch over much of eastern wisconsin until 9pm edt. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0259.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODESTLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT. SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF RHINELANDER WISCONSIN TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF OSHKOSH WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. hr. TOL: Jun 15, 2016 3:52 pm Weather : Mostly Cloudy Temperature : 87 F Humidity : 53% Wind Speed : W 15 mph Barometer : 29.77 in Dewpoint: 68 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 90 F hr. TOL: Jun 15, 2016 2:52 pm Weather : Partly Cloudy Temperature : 85 F Humidity : 61% Wind Speed : SW 8 mph Barometer : 29.77 in Dewpoint: 70 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 90 F hr. !https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7366/27081985834_af9a826409_o.gif! md 0935 concerning severe potential...watch possible for cntrl il...nrn/cntrl indiana...wrn oh mesoscale discussion 0935 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0223 pm cdt wed jun 15 2016 areas affected...cntrl il...nrn/cntrl indiana...wrn oh concerning...severe potential...watch possible valid 151923z - 152100z probability of watch issuance...60 percent summary...potential for isolated dmgg wind gusts and hail appears to be increasing across parts of cntrl il and cntrl indiana in association with developing tstms. trends are being monitored for a possible ww. discussion...visible satellite trends show increasing towering cu and isolated tstm development within a broad confluence zone across cntrl il...and across w-cntrl/n-cntrl ind. strong heating within a very moist boundary layer is resulting in moderate to extreme instability /aoa 2500 j/kg/...which will support vigorous updraft development over the next 2-3 hrs. although forcing for ascent is generally weak...and sfc flow veered/wly...the moist and uncapped air mass will be supportive for the development of a few multicell clusters given 20-30 kt of effective shear...with the primary threat being dmgg wind gusts...enhanced by the steepening of low-level lapse rates across the area. isolated instances of svr hail are also possible given the degree of instability...despite relatively warm temperatures aloft. convective trends are being closely monitored for signs of increasing tstm coverage...which could necessitate the issuance of a new ww across parts of cntrl il...nrn/cntrl ind...and nwrn oh this afternoon. ..rogers/guyer.. 06/15/2016 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...iln...iwx...ind...lot...ilx... lat...lon 41228640 41618573 41578409 41058351 40138387 39028631 39138744 39188869 39438931 39848933 40458803 41228640 hr. !https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13394131_801666693299319_7777161695506689645_n.png?oh=df9a6cfba87238388f9d773af8b52890&oe=5805EB8B! Area to watch for new development is now over N IN, SW MI, and NE IL. CU developing on going and atmosphere is destabilizing nicely under plenty of heating right now. CAPE values now at or above 1500 j/kg in many areas. Expecting new storms to form in the blue area and move generally east to ESE. Main risk with storms this afternoon will be wind/hail. ! posted by JustaSooner on Jun 15, 2016 at 02:51:01 pm http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/203171#203733 hr. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. What's the diff? Sun has been in-and-out for a while. Dew point temps were around 70 degrees at 2:00 p.m. TOL: Jun 15, 2016 1:52 pm Weather : Mostly Cloudy Temperature : 81 F Humidity : 69% Wind Speed : SW 9 mph Barometer : 29.79 in Dewpoint: 70 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 84 F hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 1232 pm edt wed jun 15 2016 lez142>145-162>165-ohz003-006>010-017>020-027>031-036>038-047-161645- lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-lucas-wood- ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-wyandot- crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox- 1232 pm edt wed jun 15 2016 this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...this afternoon and tonight. thunderstorms are expected to develop later today. there is a slight chance that some storms could become severe with the potential to create large hail and damaging winds. .days two through seven...thursday through tuesday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. spc ac 151640 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1140 am cdt wed jun 15 2016 valid 151630z - 161200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across wi/mi... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across the oh/tn valleys... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across mt... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from the central/southern plains to the mid-atlantic states/carolinas... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across the northern rockies... ...summary... isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across wisconsin into lower michigan...as well as the ohio and tennessee valleys. isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop across the southern plains and montana. ...wi/mi... an upper low will drift east-southeastward over northern wi/upper mi peninsula through this evening...with a southern-peripheral belt of 35-50 kt westerlies noted in 12z upper-air analysis expected to spread east-southeastward across central/southern portions of wi/mi and northern il/indiana. a surface low will move southeastward across wi and an increasingly narrow/less stable warm sector /particularly given residual stratus/ with northward extent across wi. current thinking is that an initial increase of surface-based thunderstorms will occur across central wi through early/mid-afternoon. this storms should intensify within a moderately unstable air warm sector...located along the southern fringes of a gradually abating stratus field noted in visible satellite imagery as of late morning. the previously described belt of stronger mid-level winds will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for some initial supercells and subsequent southeastward-moving organized clusters/bands. backed low-level winds near the warm front should support a risk for a tornadic storm or two aside from the risk for hail/damaging winds. at least some severe risk could spread downstream /southeastward/ and reach parts of lower mi and/or northern portions of il/indiana this evening. ...oh/tn valleys... some residual cloud cover persists particularly across oh/southern indiana and parts of the tn valley near multiple bands of convection/outflow. midday visible satellite imagery continues to suggest that ample insolation will occur ahead and behind these small residual convective clusters...within a richly moist air mass characterized by upper 60s to middle 70s surface dew points. renewed scattered storm development is expected through the afternoon along remnant outflow boundaries and with aid of a possible mcv over the lower oh river valley at midday. strong instability and modest deep shear should support several generally southeastward-moving semi-organized clusters with damaging winds as the primary hazard. ...northern rockies/mt... showers/cloud cover are prevalent late this morning from id into south-central/east-central mt...although stronger insolation is generally present across southeast mt. current cloud cover and minimal large-scale ascent owing to the building mid-level ridge suggests diabatically-driven storm development should be relegated to parts of id/southwest mt. a shortwave impulse should approach the northern rockies tonight. this will yield intensifying low-level mass response over the high plains. while mlcin will probably remain large...isolated to widely scattered elevated storms may form. sufficient speed shear within the cloud-bearing layer should support a primary risk of severe hail and possibly gusty winds. ...ks/ok to west/southwest tx... a weakly forced scenario is expected as upper heights will rise today with modest convergence near a dryline. deep-layer shear will be quite limited owing to weak tropospheric winds...although morning upper-air analysis suggests somewhat stronger high-level flow /40+ kt 250 mb/ will exist. regardless...strong insolation and a very moist airmass with very steep lapse rates and high-end instability would conditionally support at least a relatively short-duration/diurnally-driven severe risk late this afternoon and evening if/where storms form from ks south-southwestward into west/southwest tx. ..guyer/rogers.. 06/15/2016 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000z !https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7331/27083945153_8e8971d79a_z.jpg! hr. Light rain falling at 9:43 a.m. with occasional thunder. SPC now shows the border between Slight and Marginal risks through the Toledo area. The Slight Risk covers Ohio, east of I-77 and south of the turnpike. Yesterday morning, we were in the Enhanced Risk. Then by mid-day yesterday, the Enhanced Risk was removed, and we were solidly covered by a Slight Risk. This morning we were barely in the northern edge of the Slight Risk. And now at mid-morning, the Slight Risk continues to shift southward. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 534 am edt wed jun 15 2016 lez142>145-162>165-ohz003-006>010-017>020-027>031-036>038-047-160945- lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-lucas-wood- ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-wyandot- crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox- 534 am edt wed jun 15 2016 this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. thunderstorms are expected to develop today. there is a slight chance that some storms could become severe with the potential to create large hail and damaging winds. .days two through seven...thursday through tuesday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed. hr. !https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7302/27584677022_f514022e6b_z.jpg! hr. TOL: Jun 15, 2016 5:52 am Weather : Overcast Temperature : 66 F Humidity : 68% Wind Speed : ESE 5 mph Barometer : 29.86 in Dewpoint: 55 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jun 15, 2016 3:18 am Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind becoming south 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 77. Southwest wind 10 to 14 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday Night: A chance of showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. North wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 81. East wind 13 to 18 mph. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 84. Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 86. Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. hr. area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 308 am edt wed jun 15 2016 synopsis... a warm front will lift northeast into ohio today ahead of low pressure dropping across the great lakes. by evening the warm front should be near a toledo to mansfield line. the warm front will move east of the area thursday morning as a cold front moves in from the west. the low will move southeast across ohio thursday dragging the cold front with it. high pressure will build back over the region for the end of the week. && near term /through today/... a warm front roughly near an kord-kcvg line at 06z will lift northeast and reach near a ktol-kmfd line by 00z this evening. current area of convection across nrn indiana and srn wi being supported by good isentropic lift over the warm front just ahead of increasing boundary layer cape. the nam also shows a short wave moving into the area. this translates east through the day with the warm front. believe the current activity will combine with developing convection in north central indiana and move east into nwrn ohio this morning...likely weakening as it does as it outruns the best instability. this will continue east impacting nern oh and nwrn pa late morning early afternoon. meanwhile by late morning/early afternoon expect the warm front to be moving into the west with convection likely developing along of just west of the front in the unstable air. this too should then translate east through the late afternoon early evening. spc has continued a slight chance for the western 2/3rds of the area for the afternoon activity. highs from the mid and upper 70s nwrn pa to the mid 80s southwest. will have likely pops west and increasing to likely in the east by 00z. && short term /tonight through saturday night/... rain/thunder chances remain in the forecast tonight through thursday night. tonight the warm front will continue to move slowly northeast into nern oh as the parent low drops southeast across lower mi. by 12z thursday the associated cold front will also be approaching from the wnw. capes remain elevated through the night across the area with most of the area in the warm sector between fronts. will have likely pops in the east for the evening to catch what will likely be ongoing showers/tstms from after afternoon but will lower to chance for the overnight as the nam brings in slightly drier air from the west. thursday however the surface low will drop southeast across the area dragging the cold front with it. would expect showers and a chance of thunder given the upper support. will taper pops thursday night. friday through saturday night high pressure will build in from the northwest. expect clear/pc skies and no pops. highs around 80 thursday and friday and in the lower 80s saturday. && long term /sunday through tuesday/... models in good agreement for sunday with large area of high pressure just se of the forecast area. this will keep area high and dry and also set up a warming trend. the temps sunday and monday will push back into the mid to upper 80s. but the above normal conditions will be short lived as models push next cold front across the forecast area monday night into tuesday. likely see convection with the front...but this far out will leave chance pops going. high pressure builds back over the area wednesday. && aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/... vfr conditions will continue through the overnight. a warm front stretching from near chi into sw ohio will lift slowly ne wednesday. models disagree on forecast. nam has showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front reaching northwest ohio toward daybreak and moving east wednesday morning. gfs on the other hand has nothing in the morning...but showers and thunderstorms developing in nw oh during the afternoon and moving east. strong to severe thunderstorms are a possibility wednesday afternoon and evening but low confidence trying to time the thunderstorm threat at any given location. for now will keep morning showers with tsra redeveloping in the west during the afternoon. winds should veer from east to south. outlook...non vfr at times wednesday night through thursday in showers and thunderstorms. && marine... the east winds will gradually veer to the southeast late today into the overnight as the warm front across sw oh moves across the lake. mariners should be alert for thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening hours. some of the storms could become strong to severe. models continue to move a low pressure system across the lake thursday. potential for a small craft advisory friday into friday night as the canadian high pressure builds across the lake and a northeast flow sets up. conditions should improve over the weekend as the gradient weakens. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...tk near term...tk short term...tk long term...djb aviation...djb marine...djb hr. spc ac 150556 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1256 am cdt wed jun 15 2016 valid 151200z - 161200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over ern mt... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over cntrl/srn wi... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over portions of oh and tn valleys... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over portions of the nrn rockies and nrn plains... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from the great lakes and oh valley swwd into w tx... ...summary... isolated strong to severe storms are expected wednesday into wednesday evening across a portion of the great lakes into the ohio...tennessee and lower mississippi valleys. other strong to severe storms remain possible later wednesday night over a portion of northeast montana. ...synopsis... shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum currently moving into mn is expected to track sewd across the upper ms valley and great lakes region as it rounds the upper ridge extending across the cntrl conus. surface low will move sewd just ahead of the shortwave and will likely be centered over lwr mi by 12z thu. farther w...a shortwave trough will move quickly through the base of the upper low centered just of the british columbia/washington coast...progressing across the nrn rockies and into srn alberta. ...upper great lakes...oh and tn valleys... ongoing tstms moving across the mid ms valley complicate the forecast with uncertainty regarding airmass overturning...location of outflow boundaries...and how far east the system progresses. current thinking is that outflow associated with this system will lead to additional tstms development during the early afternoon across portions of the oh and tn valleys. environment here will be weakly sheared but a warm and very moist airmass will support strong instability and tstms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. farther nw /across wi/...convergence near the surface low will likely result in tstms development amidst an airmass characterized by temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. these conditions will support at least moderate instability. mid-level flow will gradually strengthen with the resulting vertical shear supportive of rotating updrafts capable of hail and strong wind gusts. sely surface winds near the warm front may also result in increased low-level shear and low tornado potential. ...cntrl/ern mt... strong swly flow aloft is already in place over mt with the persistence and strengthening of the flow anticipated during the day. as a result...lee troughing will deepen with sely upslope flow advecting low-level moisture into ern mt. additionally...lee cyclogenesis appears probable across ne wy with the resulting low tracking nwd across ern mt late in the period...further strengthening upslope flow into the region. sely upslope flow beneath strong mid-level flow aloft will result in a strongly sheared environment with 0-6 km bulk shear around 50-60 kt. airmass over the region is expected to stay capped throughout the day before continued moisture advection and a strong llj initiate elevated tstms during the evening. given the strong shear...elevated supercells are anticipated with a resulting primary threat for large hail. even with stable low-levels...the strength of the flow and anticipated strength of the storms should also lead to a few strong winds gusts. ...portions of the srn plains and srn high plains... very warm and humid conditions are expected across the region with isolated tstms possible as daytime heating destabilizes the airmass. shear will be weak but strong to extreme instability -- mlcape from 2000 to 4000 j per kg -- anticipated will result in the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts with any storms that do form. ...carolinas... scattered to numerous tstms are expected amidst modest flow and a moist airmass...resulting in the potential for a few damaging wind gusts. ..mosier/gleason.. 06/15/2016 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z !https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7687/27685361655_9501a33990_z.jpg! #toledo #weather