Toledo weather - Monday June 20, 2016 http://toledoweather.info/mesoscale0993.html md 0993 concerning severe potential...watch possible for parts of n cntrl illinois...nrn indiana...nwrn ohio mesoscale discussion 0993 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0154 pm cdt mon jun 20 2016 areas affected...parts of n cntrl illinois...nrn indiana...nwrn ohio concerning...severe potential...watch possible valid 201854z - 202100z probability of watch issuance...40 percent summary...thunderstorm activity may increase through late afternoon...accompanied by at least some risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. if activity shows signs of increasing upscale growth/organization...the issuance of a severe weather watch is possible. discussion...well to the south of a significant short wave trough pivoting across ontario...toward quebec...a gradually strengthening /30-50+ kt at 500 mb/ and veering /westerly to northwesterly/ of mid-level flow is underway across southern portions of the great lakes region. along the southern/leading edge of associated mid-level cooling...an increase in thunderstorm activity is ongoing near/south of the michigan/indiana border area into areas south and west of the chicago metro. this forcing and associated convection is expected to continue slowly shifting southward...with substantive further intensification of convection possible through 21-23z. although low-level convergence across this region appears generally weak...lift along consolidating/strengthening convective cold pools as they progress into an axis of stronger pre-frontal heating may aid storm development. mixed layer cape increasing to 1500-2000+ j/kg...coupled with vertical shear increasingly favorable for organized convection...may support an increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts through late afternoon. ..kerr/guyer.. 06/20/2016 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...iln...iwx...ind...lot...ilx... lat...lon 41428650 41538316 41298176 40328285 39668876 40159012 41128856 41428650 hr. TOL: Jun 20, 2016 1:52 pm Weather : Partly Cloudy and Breezy Temperature : 91 F Humidity : 45% Wind Speed : W 23 mph Barometer : 30.04 in Dewpoint: 67 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 94 F (formerly Metcalf Airport) Jun 20, 2016 1:53 pm Weather : Partly Cloudy and Breezy Temperature : 92 F Humidity : 43% Wind Speed : W 22 mph - Gust 29 mph Barometer : 30.05 in Dewpoint: 66 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 95 F (near Lambertville) Jun 20, 2016 1:54 pm Weather : Mostly Cloudy Temperature : 90 F Humidity : 45% Wind Speed : W 12 mph - Gust 26 mph Barometer : 30.04 in Dewpoint: 66 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 92 F hr. http://stormtrackweather.blogspot.com/2016/06/strong-severe-storm-threat-ahead.html hr. spc ac 200717 day 3 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 0217 am cdt mon jun 20 2016 valid 221200z - 231200z ...there is an enh risk of svr tstms from cntrl ia across nrn il...indiana...and wrn oh... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from srn mn/ia sewd toward the oh river... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from srn mn sewd to the cntrl appalachians... ...summary... severe storms capable of widespread damaging wind...a few tornadoes and large hail are possible across a large area from the upper mississippi valley southeastward into the ohio valley during the day and overnight on wednesday. ...synopsis... a broad belt of strong nwly flow aloft will exist across the nrn states...with main long-wave trough over the nern states and upper high centered over the srn plains. within this nwly flow regime will be multiple disturbances which are likely to be associated with clusters of severe storms from the upper ms valley sewd toward the oh valley. a sfc low will move from nebraska wed morning into ia by 00z...with a warm front lifting nwd across the upper ms valley and toward srn lake michigan. ample moisture and instability will be present to support severe storms...with strong wind fields possibly supporting a corridor of widespread severe storms...the centroid of which may shift in later outlooks as predictability changes. ...upper ms valley sewd toward the oh valley... models show a complex of storms...possibly severe with hail and wind...ongoing near the warm front roughly from ia into srn wi and nrn il wed morning in association with strong warm advection. coincident with these storms is also a small midlevel speed max/jetlet. as such...this potential system could persist for much of the day. by late afternoon...the air mass will become more unstable...with mucape to around 3000 j/kg likely...with another speed max aloft possibly embedded within the nw flow. renewed development is expected near the sfc low over ia during the late afternoon...which may track along any outflow boundary from early convection. the strong flow aloft as well as impressive 850 mb jet...resulting in very strong mean wind speeds...all point toward a possible widespread damaging wind event in and close to the enhanced risk area. initially...supercells may be present prior to storm mergers...with tornadoes and large hail. ..jewell.. 06/20/2016 click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z hr. http://jothut.com/cgi-bin/junco.pl/replies/73058 http://toledoweather.info/mesoscale0991.html http://toledoweather.info/mesoscale0991.html #toledo #weather From: JR's : micro blog - Jun 20, 2016 - reply 4 replies JR: Tol Jun 20, 2016 10:52 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 85 F Humidity : 57% Wind Speed : WSW 16 mph Barometer : 30.09 in Dewpoint: 68 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 88 F External Link : 3-day history - 8 mins ago - # - reply JR: (formerly Metcalf Airport) Jun 20, 2016 10:53 am Weather : Fair and Breezy Temperature : 86 F Humidity : 53% Wind Speed : W 22 mph - Gust 30 mph Barometer : 30.10 in Dewpoint: 67 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 89 F - 7 mins ago - # - reply JR: (near Lambertville) Jun 20, 2016 10:55 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 87 F Humidity : 54% Wind Speed : W 14 mph - Gust 17 mph Barometer : 30.08 in Dewpoint: 69 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 91 F - 7 mins ago - # - reply JR: Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jun 20, 2016 9:02 am Today: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. - 7 mins ago - # - reply hr. md 0991 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for southern/eastern lower michigan mesoscale discussion 0991 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0942 am cdt mon jun 20 2016 areas affected...southern/eastern lower michigan concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely valid 201442z - 201545z probability of watch issuance...20 percent summary...some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts may be possible with thunderstorms across southeastern lower michigan through around 18-19z. it currently appears that stronger storms may remain rather widely scattered to isolated in nature. as a result...is not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed...but trends will continue to be monitored. discussion...thunderstorm development is underway...and may be associated with a narrow band of mid-level forcing for ascent which models suggest will progress eastward across the michigan thumb and southern lower michigan through 18-19z. pre-frontal low-level flow across this region is characterized by a substantial westerly component...with generally weak convergence. and relatively warm mid-level layers likely are still contributing to substantial inhibition. however...with continued insolation...it is possible that boundary layer destabilization could support the intensification of one or two storms...before associated forcing spreads into southern ontario this afternoon. if this occurs...cape of 1000-2000 j/kg...coupled with strengthening lower/mid tropospheric westerly flow /30-50+ kt/...probably will be conducive to at least some risk for severe hail and locally severe wind gusts ..kerr/guyer.. 06/20/2016 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...dtx...apx...iwx...grr... lat...lon 42238293 41898440 41888599 43338594 44218449 44988314 44708223 43088228 42238293 read more hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 501 am edt mon jun 20 2016 for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. a cold front arriving for this evening will bring with it the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. damaging wind and isolated large hail will be the primary threats with these thunderstorms. .days two through seven...tuesday through sunday. there is a chance for thunderstorms wednesday night and some of these storms may be strong to severe. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening. $$