Toledo weather - tue jun 21 2016 Still moderate and enhanced risks for the toledo area. spc ac 211734 day 2 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1234 pm cdt tue jun 21 2016 valid 221200z - 231200z ...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms srn wi...nrn il...nrn ind...srn lwr mi...and nwrn oh... ...there is an enh risk of svr tstms surrounding the mdt risk from far wrn ia to nw oh... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms surrounding the enh risk from the upper ms valley sewd into the oh valley... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms surrounding the slgt risk from the upper ms valley sewd into the tn/oh valleys... ...summary... widespread damaging winds...a few tornadoes and large hail are expected across northern illinois...southern wisconsin...northern indiana and southwest lower michigan during the late afternoon and evening on wednesday. a substantial severe wind threat should also persist wednesday night across the remainder of southern lower michigan and into western ohio. ...synopsis... synoptic-scale features that are expected to strongly influence the forecast tomorrow are well-defined already today with recent surface analysis showing a deepening low over se mt...latest upper air analysis revealing a belt of strong wly/nwly flow across much of the nrn third of the conus...and recent water vapor satellite imagery depicting a well-defined...compact shortwave trough moving into the nrn rockies. this shortwave trough will continue ewd throughout the day and overnight...reaching the nrn plains by 12z wednesday. the shortwave will then crest the upper ridge covering much of the srn third of conus...turning slightly sewd and progressing across the upper great lakes tomorrow night. se mt surface low will deepen throughout the day today...before ejecting tonight and tracking sewd along a strengthening warm front. by 12z wednesday...this surface low will likely be centered over the mid mo valley with ongoing tstms persisting with in the waa regime along and n of the warm front /from srn mn sewd through cntrl il/. surface low will then continue ewd across ia while the elevated tstms activity and cloud cover act to reinforce the warm front. surface-based initiation appears likely during the mid to late afternoon across far ern ia...nrn il and srn wi with quick upscale growth into a strong mcs probable /discussed in more detail below/. ...srn mn sewd through cntrl il from early morning into the afternoon... tstms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from srn mn sewd through cntrl il within the waa regime across the region. strong nwly flow aloft will provide ample shear for updraft rotation. however...this region will be on the edge of the better mid-level lapse rates...limiting instability. even with this limited instability...the strength of the forcing for ascent and strong vertical shear will likely result in tstms capable of large hail. these storms are expected to gradually weaken throughout morning as they become displaced from better instability. ...upper ms valley ewd across the srn great lakes and oh valley from mid to late afternoon through the overnight hours... airmass to the south of the warm front /mentioned in the synopsis/ will quickly warm up with temperatures expected to reach the 90s by the early afternoon. low-level swly winds will help advect moisture into the region with this warm and moist environment supporting strong instability by the mid-afternoon. warm temperatures aloft will be also be advected into the region with associated capping likely preventing convective-initiation until the late afternoon. diurnal heating coupled with increased forcing for ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough /and attendant surface low/ are expected to overcome this convective-inhibition by late afternoon...with explosive tstm development likely once this occurs. most likely location for initial development will be near the triple point. vertical wind profiles will be very supportive of updraft rotation with all severe hazards possible. greatest tornado threat will be in the vicinity of the warm front where backed surface winds are possible. this initial development is expected to quickly grow upscale with the strong unidirectional flow supportive of a severe mcs capable of a large area of damaging wind gusts. current guidance suggests the corridor most likely to see these damaging wind gusts will be from srn wi/nrn il sewd across nrn ind...srn lower mi...and nw oh. some trimming of the ne extent of the mdt risk area from the previous outlook was done to account for anticipated sely mcs motion suggested by the most recent guidance. ..mosier.. 06/21/2016 click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z hr. Yesterday at Noon it was around 90 degrees. Cooler and less humid today. Tol: Jun 21, 2016 11:52 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 78 F Humidity : 42% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 29.94 in Dewpoint: 53 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles External Link : 3-day history hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 447 am edt tue jun 21 2016 for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .days two through seven...wednesday through monday. thunderstorms that are forecast to move across the area wednesday night have the potential to be strong to severe. damaging wind and heavy downpours are the primary threats at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed wednesday evening and wednesday night. $$ hr. The day 2 spc convective outlook for tomorrow showed half the toledo area under a moderate risk. The other half under enhanced. spc ac 210600 day 2 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 0100 am cdt tue jun 21 2016 valid 221200z - 231200z ...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms across nrn il...srn wi...nrn indiana...srn lower mi...and nwrn oh... ...there is an enh risk of svr tstms from ern ia into wrn oh... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from sern mn/ern ia into wrn pa and wv... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from the upper ms valley sewd across the srn great lakes and oh valley... ...summary... widespread damaging winds...a few tornadoes and large hail are expected across northern illinois...southern wisconsin...northern indiana and southwest lower michigan during the late afternoon and evening on wednesday. a substantial severe wind threat should also persist wednesday night across the remainder of southern lower michigan and into western ohio. ...synopsis... low pressure will move from ern neb across ia during the day with a warm front lifting nwd across wi and into lower mi. substantial low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s f will be present behind the warm front leading to a very unstable air mass. a swly low-level jet will be in place wed morning and will intensify late in the day in response to an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough across the upper ms valley by 00z. an expansive area of strong wind fields will support long-lived...fast-moving severe storms across the entire risk area beginning late afternoon wed across srn wi/nrn il and persisting into thu morning toward the oh river. ...srn mn...ern ia...nrn il and srn wi // morning through midday... a large area of thunderstorms will be ongoing wed morning roughly from sern mn/ern ia across il and into srn indiana in association with strong warm advection with the swly 850 mb jet. wind profiles at this time will already be favorable for severe storms...with hail the main threat. these storms are not expected to pose any significant wind or tornado threat...and will likely weaken by midday as the warm front lifts newd. ...upper ms valley sewd across the srn great lakes and oh valley // late afternoon into the overnight hours... a more substantial severe threat will develop late wed afternoon in the wake of the earlier activity...after the atmosphere has had time to heat and further destabilize. models are in good agreement showing the surface low over nern ia between 21-00z...and this is the most likely area for initiation or perhaps just e into wi/il. a capping inversion will exist around 700 mb...but forcing for ascent should breach it resulting in explosive development of supercells. very large hail....tornadoes and damaging winds appear likely as these cells move across srn wi and nrn il and possibly into cntrl il. the tornado threat should be maximized near the sfc low...which will track near the warm front where low-level shear/turning with height will be greatest. other more isolated cells may extend swd into cntrl il. by evening...a rapid upscale-growth into a severe mcs is anticipated...with the potential for widespread and significant damaging winds. forecast wind fields just off the surface from nam/gfs show in excess of 50 kts...and a intense convective feedback signal with the wind fields overall suggesting an organized system. as such...this potential system could extend farther e than currently forecast despite lower levels of instability. the primary threat corridor will likely be shifted a bit in later outlooks as precise location of low track and warm front are better forecast. ..jewell.. 06/21/2016 click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z