Toledo weather - Wed Jun 22 2016 md 1023 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for southern lower mi/far northeast indiana and far northwest oh mesoscale discussion 1023 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0707 pm cdt wed jun 22 2016 areas affected...southern lower mi/far northeast indiana and far northwest oh concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely valid 230007z - 230200z probability of watch issuance...20 percent summary...an isolated hail threat will be possible across mainly southwest and south-central lower mi...and perhaps far northeast indiana and far northwest oh as elevated storms developing over far southeast wi and across southern lake mi track to the southeast this evening. limited severe storm coverage precludes the need for a watch at this time. discussion...trends in early evening mosaic radar imagery indicated a cluster of elevated storms extending from extreme southeast wi e/se across southern lake mi...with a storm over the lake /approximately at 35 nw beh/ having indicated possible hail around 1 inch in diameter per mrms data. storms ongoing in far southwest lower mi into northeast indiana have tended to be weak. this would suggest this activity may be surface-based given presence of weak instability. meanwhile...the stronger storms located across southern lake mi appear to being fed by a 40-kt southwesterly low-level jet in northeast il per area vwps...with the stronger instability in il. effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt across the discussion area will support storm organization...with the threat for isolated severe hail this evening. ..peters/edwards.. 06/23/2016 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...dtx...iwx...grr... lat...lon 42988622 42688510 42388441 41938401 41638393 41358421 41418478 41428519 41678579 41868637 42068657 42608654 42988622 hr. First warning for the complex Severe Thunderstorm Warning Issued: 6:33 PM CDT Jun. 22, 2016 – National Weather Service The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... northwestern Lee County in north central Illinois... * until 715 PM CDT * at 633 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm was located near Dixon... moving east at 20 mph. Hazard... 70 mph wind gusts. Source... radar indicated. Impact... expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to Mobile homes... roofs... and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Dixon... Walton... Franklin Grove and Nelson. Including the following Interstate... I-88 between mile markers 49 and 61. This includes... Sauk Valley College. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 am CDT for north central Illinois. Lat... Lon 4188 8963 4190 8962 4188 8928 4169 8940 4181 8963 time... Mot... loc 2333z 287deg 19kt 4184 8958 Tornado... possible hail... <.75in wind... 70mph Izzi hr. SEL6 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 610 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...GRADUALLY DEEPENING CONVECTION NOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS THREATENING EVERY FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER...THEN AFTER A FEW HOURS...INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH MOSTLY A DAMAGING-WIND RISK. AN ORGANIZED...DERECHO-PRODUCING SYSTEM ULTIMATELY MAY DEVELOP FROM THIS ACTIVITY TONIGHT. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF VALPARAISO INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035. ...EDWARDS hr. Much of Ohio is now under a flood watch for tonight, but not our area. !https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7446/27844483005_4eab2a5487_b.jpg! br. For Hancock County ... ... Flash Flood Watch in effect from 10 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning... * strong and possibly severe thunderstorms overnight will produce torrential rainfall. Intense rainfall rates could produce a quick two to three inches of rainfall. This rapid runoff can overwhelm storm drainage systems and small streams and creeks. Some areas could be impacted by storms multiple times overnight which could push rainfall totals over four inches. * Given this rainfall will occur during the night when the impacts of flash flooding are more difficult to see... those living near small creeks and streams which respond quickly to heavy rain need to monitor rainfall and stream levels during the night. Those traveling are encouraged to be alert for water over Road which may be difficult to see... and turn around if water is indeed flowing over the Road. P hr. md 1020 concerning severe potential...tornado watch likely for ern ia...far srn wi...nrn into cntrl il...nw ind mesoscale discussion 1020 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0338 pm cdt wed jun 22 2016 areas affected...ern ia...far srn wi...nrn into cntrl il...nw ind concerning...severe potential...tornado watch likely valid 222038z - 222215z probability of watch issuance...95 percent summary...scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by 23z. these storms will quickly become severe with tornadoes...damaging winds and large hail possible into the evening hours. a tornado watch will likely be needed within the next hour for portions of the mcd area. discussion...convection during most of the morning hours and related cloud cover across ia/wi/il/ind has resulted in maintenance of strong capping /as evident in 19z regional raobs/. however...recent clearing in the last 1-2 hours has allowed for strong surface heating with temperatures climbing from the upper 60s f into the mid 70s to low 80s f as far north as the il/wi border. additional heating and moistening should continue to erode the cap. as deep layer forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the upper shortwave impulse...storms are expected to develop across ern ia/sw wi/far nw il by 23z. once storms develop...they are expected to track e-se along a strong instability gradient in the vicinity of a warm front draped across nrn il into central ind. steep midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 c/km per dvn and ilx 19z raobs and 0-6 km shear greater than 50 kt will support rotating updrafts and large hail. furthermore...rich boundary layer moisture with mixing ratios near 14 g/kg and backed low-level winds evident in 19z raobs and...more recently...indicated by regional vwp/s...will support a few tornadoes /potentially one or two sig tors/. storms are expected to grow upscale into a southeastward propagating mcs with a coincident increase in damaging wind threat into indiana...and later tonight the ohio valley. ..leitman/guyer.. 06/22/2016 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...iwx...ind...lot...ilx...mkx...dvn...arx... lat...lon 41509103 42529189 42969203 43259176 43229105 42958906 42508793 41868652 41458606 40868600 40478615 39868638 39658669 39548714 39628784 39988867 40839009 41269075 41509103 read more hr. ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 221647 IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-WIZ000-230200- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Select a General Area this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Northern and central Indiana Northern and central Illinois Western Ohio Southwestern Lower Michigan Southern Wisconsin Northeastern Iowa * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Widespread damaging wind gusts with some greater than 70 miles per hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are expected this afternoon and evening from northeast Iowa into extreme southern Wisconsin, northern and central Illinois, southwest lower Michigan, northern to central Indiana and parts of western Ohio. A wind damage threat may also affect the upper Ohio Valley and central and southern Appalachians. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Leitman.. 06/22/2016 $$ hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 908 am edt wed jun 22 2016 lez142>146-162>166-ohz003-006>011-017>022-027>033-036>038-047-231315- lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh-lucas-wood- ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-hancock-seneca-huron-medina- summit-portage-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark- mahoning-marion-morrow-holmes-knox- 908 am edt wed jun 22 2016 this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. thunderstorms may be severe late today and tonight. severe thunderstorms will develop in the midwest today. these severe thunderstorms have a good chance of reaching the local area tonight...especially northwest and north central ohio. damaging winds are the primary severe weather threat. widespread damaging winds are possible. isolated tornados are possible. torrential downpours will occur with the storms. .days two through seven...thursday through tuesday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed. $$ hr. ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 221324 IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-WIZ000-221800- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley region this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Northern and central Indiana Western Ohio Northern Illinois Southwestern Lower Michigan Southern Wisconsin Northeastern Iowa * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... Widespread damaging wind gusts with some greater than 70 miles per hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are expected this afternoon and evening from northeast Iowa into extreme southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, southwest Lower Michigan, northern to central Indiana and parts of western Ohio. A wind damage threat may affect the upper Ohio Valley late this evening into the central Appalachian mountains during the overnight period. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Cohen/Guyer.. 06/22/2016 $$ hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 643 am edt wed jun 22 2016 lez142>146-162>166-ohz003-006>011-017>022-027>033-036>038-047-231045- lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh-lucas-wood- ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-hancock-seneca-huron-medina- summit-portage-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark- mahoning-marion-morrow-holmes-knox- 643 am edt wed jun 22 2016 this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. thunderstorms may be severe late today and tonight. severe thunderstorms will develop in the midwest today. these severe thunderstorms have a good chance of reaching the local area late today or tonight...especially northwest and north central ohio. damaging winds are the primary severe weather threat. widespread damaging winds are possible. isolated tornados are possible. torrential downpours will occur with the storms. .days two through seven...thursday through tuesday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation will be needed late today and tonight. $$ hr. fxus63 kiwx 220901 afdiwx area forecast discussion national weather service northern indiana 501 am edt wed jun 22 2016 ..widespread severe weather expected by early tonight.... synopsis... issued at 152 am edt wed jun 22 2016 a warm front will return northward today as low pressure moves toward the area. this will result in a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms, and an elevated threat of widespread severe weather late this afternoon and early tonight. in addition, there is a potential of heavy rainfall tonight. high temperatures today and thursday will be around 80. lows tonight will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s. && short term...(today and tonight) issued at 450 am edt wed jun 22 2016 a significant severe weather outbreak is expected late today and early tonight. a fast moving upper level disturbance over the northern plains will race southeast and move across the area early tonight. storms over north dakota associated with this system early this morning will move southeast and eventually intensify into a fast moving line of storms. these storms are expected to produce widespread wind damage by early tonight over the forecast area as a warm front moves northeast. substantial low level shear will elevate the risk for tornadoes, so have included this mention in the hazardous weather outlook. have coordinated rainfall amounts with the weather prediction center and have raised amounts tonight as precipitable water values top 2.0 inches. the spc has shifted the moderate risk just a little to the southwest from the day 2 outlook yesterday to be more in line where upper level support will be colocated where storms are able to become surface based. && long term...(thursday through tuesday) issued at 450 am edt wed jun 22 2016 the severe weather threat will be waning early thursday as the upper level disturbance moves out of the area. lingering showers will end by thursday afternoon with conditions becoming less humid later in the day. heat and humidity will begin returning friday with highs climbing to near 90 late in the weekend. heat indices will top 90 degrees sunday. have raised shower and storm chances sunday and sunday night favoring the model blend. && aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z wednesday night) issued at 146 am edt wed jun 22 2016 vfr conditions to continue through 12-15z. warm front and associated elevated convections will overspread the area from the west aft 15z. expect to see vfr to mvfr conditions as the core of warm air and afternoon heating work to produce more cu/stratus. next round of convection works into the region as mcc/mcs moves out of il/wi toward the end of the taf period. expect to see significantly lower cigs/vsbys as this convection moves in. && iwx watches/warnings/advisories... in...none. mi...none. oh...none. lm...none. && $$ synopsis...lewis short term...skipper long term...skipper aviation...lewis visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx follow us on facebook...twitter...and youtube at: www.facebook.com/nwsnorthernindiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/nwsnorthernindiana hr. spc ac 220559 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1259 am cdt wed jun 22 2016 valid 221200z - 231200z ...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms across parts of ern ia...srn wi...nrn il...nrn and cntrl ind...sw lower mi and wcntrl oh... ...there is an enh risk of svr tstms across parts of the upper ms valley...srn great lakes...oh valley and cntrl appalachian mtns outside of the moderate risk area... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across parts of the upper ms valley...srn great lakes region...oh valley...srn and cntrl appalachian mtns and mid-atlantic outside of the enhanced risk area... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of the mid to upper ms valley...srn great lakes region...oh and tn valleys...srn and cntrl appalachian mtns and mid-atlantic outside of the slight risk area... ...summary... widespread damaging wind gusts with some greater than 70 miles per hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are expected this afternoon and evening from northeast iowa into southern wisconsin...northern illinois...southwest lower michigan...northern to central indiana and parts of western ohio. a wind damage threat may affect the upper ohio valley late this evening into the central appalachian mountains and mid-atlantic during the overnight period. ...upper ms valley/srn great lakes/oh valley/cntrl appalachians... an impressive and unseasonable fast-moving shortwave trough will move esewd from the nrn plains into the upper ms valley today. ahead of the system...a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the mid to upper ms valley extending ewd into the oh and tn valleys. this setup will be favorable for a significant wind damage event across parts of the upper ms valley...srn great lakes and oh valley this afternoon and evening. at the sfc...a warm front is forecast to setup from nrn il into cntrl ind during the day with a wnw-ese oriented sharp gradient of instability located along the front. a band of convection may be ongoing near or just to the south of the warm front from ia sewd into cntrl il at the start of the period. this convection is forecast to move sewd into the oh river valley and may have an isolated wind damage threat. as a moderately unstable warm sector develops back to the west across the mid to upper ms valley...an associated 60 to 75 kt mid-level jet will approach the region from the west. the progressive mid-level jet will enhance large-scale ascent and strengthen deep-layer shear across the upper ms valley making conditions favorable for organized severe storms. sfc-based thunderstorms are forecast to first initiate in ne ia to the northeast of a sfc low during the mid afternoon. supercells with large hail...wind damage and perhaps a strong tornado will be possible with the initial development but a rather quick transition to linear mode should take place. this line of storms is forecast to move quickly esewd across nrn il into ncntrl ind where a bowing linear mcs appears likely. model solutions including the cams and deterministic solutions show differing scenarios but are supporting this idea that a fast-moving linear mcs will track esewd across the moderate risk area. i am favoring a more east southeast mcs track much like the wrf-nssl4...nam and gfs solutions along the expected gradient of moderate instability from near dubuque ia across srn parts of the chicago metro to between south bend and indianapolis ind to near columbus oh. a swath of wind damage along with a cluster of tornadoes will be possible along this corridor. wind gusts above 65 kt will be possible near the apex of the bowing mcs. the elongated instability corridor parallel to the mid-level flow combined with a well-developed fast-moving upper-level system will make a derecho possible across the region from late afternoon to the mid evening. a wind damage threat may affect parts of the upper oh valley late this evening into parts of the cntrl appalachian mtns and mid-atlantic during the overnight period. ..broyles/picca.. 06/22/2016 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z