h1. Toledo Weather - Wed, Jul 13, 2016 hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 343 am edt wed jul 13 2016 for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today. the main threat will be damaging wind gusts. .days two through seven...thursday through tuesday. there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today. the main threat will be damaging wind gusts. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jul 13, 2016 6:15 am Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 92. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. West wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southwest wind 8 to 13 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. West wind 7 to 14 mph. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 30%. hr. fxus61 kcle 131144 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 744 am edt wed jul 13 2016 synopsis... high pressure over the central appalachian mountains will move little over the next twenty four hours. a cold front will move southeast toward the area thursday. a trough of low pressure will move southeast across the area friday. high pressure will then build east across the area over the weekend. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... a narrow line of showers continues to move east mainly across the extreme northern tier counties and adjacent lake erie. most of it is probably just sprinkles. current forecast updated to account for these brief showers. otherwise, no other major changes at this time. previous discussion... surface high pressure will continue to be the dominant weather feature across the forecast area today. the warm tropical southwest flow with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s will continue today and help to keep the atmosphere unstable through the day. however, atmosphere remains fairly well capped through much of the day and then begins to break down toward mid afternoon. this is when we could see a brief period of showers and thunderstorms developing but widely scattered across the area. storm prediction center has the forecast area in a marginal threat for severe weather today. but as mentioned, that all hinges on when the cap will break down supporting convection. otherwise, it will be another hot one with muggy conditions. as dewpoints remain in the lower 70s, heat index values will be well into the upper 90s today. && short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/... a broad upper level trough will swing through the area thursday and friday forcing some cooler air back into the region. in the mean time, surface high pressure will dominate the forecast area through the night into thursday morning with a muggy air mass dominating the forecast area. instability will be present in the tropical air mass but may have difficulty supporting convection due the cap holding strong. some scattered activity is expected overnight and a better chance is expected thursday ahead of the cold front. storm prediction center has the local area in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms again tomorrow ahead of the cold front. thursday will have a better chance for the severe activity to develop and main threats will be high winds and hail. once the cold front slips by thursday...cooler air will move into the region. a trough of low pressure will move southeast across the area friday and could support a minor threat for showers and thunderstorms. high pressure will begin to build into the region from the west saturday into saturday night. leaning toward persistence in the temperature forecast and remain slightly warmer than guidance. cold air advection arrives thursday night and continues through saturday night in the wake of the cold front so will drop temperatures into the 80s for highs and lows in the 60s. && long term /sunday through tuesday/... a weak trough aloft is expected to hang on across the eastern great lakes and northeast states early in the week. a short wave is progged to drop across the upper midwest and great lakes later sunday into monday. convection is likely to develop in the vicinity of the short wave but could run out well ahead of the short wave. will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms sunday night into monday. we will remain precariously between the heat ridge in the middle of the country and the weak trough aloft in the northeast and cannot rule out thunderstorms in the weak baroclinic zone right into midweek. will keep a low pop chance of showers and thunderstorms tuesday. && aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/... a decent size patch of lower clouds, ifr and low mvfr, has expanded across the upper ohio valley and northwest pa. these lower clouds will clip kcak and kyng this morning but should stay south of keri. elsewhere, scattered to broken cumulus will develop in the airmass which has moistened up. showers and thunderstorms over the mississippi valley will likely reach northwest ohio by late afternoon. not sure how far east they will hold together this evening and made the forecast less definitive farther east (prob30 and vicinity). outlook...areas of non-vfr possible thursday in showers and thunderstorms. non-vfr possible across ne oh/nw pa friday. && marine... a relatively light south flow will become more southwesterly and increase in speed today and again on thursday ahead of a weak cold front. the southwest direction will keep the larger waves on the east and north side of the lake and we should be able to avoid a small craft advisory until perhaps on friday when the flow will become more westerly. this would bring the larger waves into the south shore, especially east of cleveland. high pressure will build across the eastern great lakes on saturday. the flow will veer northwest and perhaps north but the gradient should be light. the flow will come around from the south on sunday as the ridge moves east but the flow could be light enough for a lake breeze. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...lombardy near term...lombardy short term...lombardy long term...kosarik aviation...kosarik marine...kosarik #toledo #weather