Toledo weather wed July 27 2016 md 1407 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for southeast wisconsin...central lower michigan mesoscale discussion 1407 nws storm prediction center norman ok 1246 pm cdt wed jul 27 2016 areas affected...southeast wisconsin...central lower michigan concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely valid 271746z - 272015z probability of watch issuance...5 percent summary...the threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail is increasing but a watch is not anticipated. discussion...strong heating along and south of an east-west oriented baroclinic zone within a narrow zone of 65-70f dewpoints is producing mixed-layer cape values generally in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range. effective bulk shear is modest but large enough /25-30 kt/ to support loosely-organized multicell structures. a deep moist layer up to 800-750 mb and moderate lapse rates up to 700-650 mb could support brief damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail with any of the stronger and more persistent storms. the southern extent of the threat is limited by a much drier boundary layer over southern lower michigan and far southeast wisconsin. additionally the severe threat in lower michigan will stay east of the lake breeze boundary currently pushing slowly east from berrien to kent counties in lower michigan. a watch is not anticipated given the expectation of a mostly disorganized and isolated severe threat. ..coniglio/dial.. 07/27/2016 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...dtx...apx...grr...grb...mkx...arx... lat...lon 44148645 44228539 44188430 44168355 44028276 43758235 43528233 43048246 42868275 42808343 42788530 42798547 42678686 42618813 42778966 43029030 43409041 43749018 44108872 44138732 44148645 read more hr. Toledo Express Airport (KTOL) click to collapse contents Jul 27, 2016 1:52 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 87 F Humidity : 39% Wind Speed : WSW 6 mph Barometer : 30.00 in Dewpoint: 59 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles External Link : 3-day history near Lambertville) Jul 27, 2016 2:35 pm Weather : Partly Cloudy Temperature : 88 F Humidity : 39% Wind Speed : WSW 7 mph Barometer : 29.99 in Dewpoint: 60 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles #toledo #weather