toledo weather fri sep 30 2016 day 3 of rain. or day 4. lost track. hr. toledo suburban airport: (near Lambertville) Sep 30, 2016 7:34 pm Weather : Heavy Rain Temperature : 62 F Humidity : 93% Wind Speed : ENE 5 mph Barometer : 30.08 in Dewpoint: 60 F Visibility : 2.00 statute miles hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Sep 30, 2016 6:32 pm Tonight: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 67. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Saturday Night: Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 52. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 67. West wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Thursday: A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday: A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%. hr. fxus61 kcle 302239 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 639 pm edt fri sep 30 2016 synopsis... low pressure over western kentucky will slowly lift north into lower michigan by sunday then shift east of the forecast area monday. large area of high pressure will move across the great lakes monday and move off the new england coast late tuesday. && near term /until 6 am saturday morning/... spiral bands around the upper level low that was located over southeast indiana will continue to move north and west with time. due to instability because of the colder air aloft, will keep mention of isolated thunderstorms across the area. otherwise, made a few minor adjustments to the weather/pop grids and temperature/dewpoint grids to account for trends. previous discussion... low pressure still centered over western kentucky. all three models track the low north along the indiana/ohio border overnight...to near dayton by daybreak. at the surface expect another band of showers to move ne across the forecast area this evening into early tonight...gradually lifting north of the area after midnight. for overnight temps...blended last nights lows with this afternoons dew points. && short term /6 am saturday morning through monday night/... models coming into a little better agreement on the track and timing of the low. but again...today the models are a little slower ejecting the low than they were yesterday. the upper level low drifts north into lower michigan by saturday evening. both the upper level and surface low linger over the central lakes sunday. best focus will be over the central lakes into the primary snowbelt area. high pressure finally starts to eject the low on monday. left chance pops going in the east because models still may be a tad fast with the low...and potential for some lake enhanced showers off the lake with 850mb temps around 8c. very little change in the temps through monday. && long term /tuesday through friday/... the models are in reasonably good agreement with the upper low finally sliding off the east coast later monday/monday night. there is still a hint of low pressure aloft left behind as the rex block forms over the great lakes but let us assume that there will be enough high pressure and subsidence given the time of year that dry weather will prevail through mid week. not very confident about the timing of next cold front. it will likely have to wait for the tropical system going up the east coast unless a weakening front sneaks through quick enough as suggested by the ecmwf. will mention a small chance of showers thursday for northwest ohio and keep a small chance of showers friday given the uncertainty. temperatures should rebound nicely as the ridge builds aloft with highs in the 70s. it will get cooler later in the week but not very confident on the forecast temps until we figure out the timing of the next front and the amount of clouds and showers. && aviation /18z friday through wednesday/... trying to time the areas of rain rotating around low pressure in the ohio valley will remain problematic. expect the current swath of rain over central ohio to slide across northwest ohio though the evening. additional showers are expected to develop tonight across extreme northeast oh and northwest pa. ceilings will remain mvfr during the showers with local ifr visibilities and ceilings during the heaviest showers. will not mention thunder in the taf forecasts but cannot rule it out. ceilings and visibilities may improve to vfr for a while late today and early tonight but mvfr/ifr stratus will redevelop in some areas early saturday morning. outlook...non-vfr in showers and low ceilings at times into monday. && marine... the east winds will gradually relax and as the persistent low pressure area over the ohio valley weakens and drifts back toward the great lakes this weekend but the wind and waves will remain high enough to keep the small craft advisory posted into tonight. the flow will veer more from the south over the weekend and then veer northwest on monday as the low moves east. high pressure will build in monday and tuesday. the center of the surface high over eastern canada will result in winds veering all the way northeast late tuesday into wednesday so the west half of the lake could get a bit choppy. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez148- 149. small craft advisory until 4 am edt saturday for lez142>147. && $$ synopsis...djb near term...lombardy short term...djb long term...kosarik aviation...kosarik marine...kosarik #toledo #weather