h1. toledo weather - tue, oct 18, 2016 tol: Oct 18, 2016 10:52 am Weather : Mostly Cloudy and Breezy Temperature : 74 F Humidity : 69% Wind Speed : SW 24 mph - Gust 31 mph Barometer : 29.68 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (formerly Metcalf Airport) Oct 18, 2016 10:53 am Weather : Fair and Breezy Temperature : 76 F Humidity : 64% Wind Speed : SW 25 mph - Gust 33 mph Barometer : 29.69 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (near Lambertville) Oct 18, 2016 11:35 am Weather : Mostly Cloudy Temperature : 76 F Humidity : 63% Wind Speed : WSW 10 mph - Gust 22 mph Barometer : 29.68 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles hr. area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 942 am edt tue oct 18 2016 .synopsis... a cold front over lake michigan will move just southeast of the area by late tonight and stall. a wave of low pressure moves along the front up the ohio valley thursday into friday pulling the front off to the southeast while the low stalls near maine on the weekend. && .near term /until 6 pm this evening/... no major changes to the forecast...just tweaked cloud cover and pushed back timing of scattered showers an hour or two. original discussion... the low level jet ahead of the approaching cold front will produce sw winds gusting 25 to 30 knots today. the sw flow will bring increasing moisture and clouds with a band of light shra developing with the front early this afternoon and pushing se into the cwa. even though qpf will be light, models consistent with showing measurable precip so will increase pops some more. the sw flow ahead of the front and warm start to the day should still cause highs to get around 80 for much of the cwa. eri`s record high of 80 and cak at 82 could be possible spots to make a run at the record. && .short term /6 pm this evening through friday night/... the cold front and associated band of light shra should move into se oh by late tonight and stall. an upper level trough digging west of the area will provide the energy for a wave of low pressure to develop and move along the front up the ohio river valley thu into fri. strong overrunning will spread shra back north across the cwa later wed and wed night which will continue thru thu night before finally shifting into mainly the ne fri into fri night. can see a good part of the area seeing an inch to maybe two inches of rain for the prolonged event. since the rain will be spread out over 48 hours and conditions have been fairly dry recently, the risk for flooding should be more limited. temps will be on a gradual downward course wed thru fri with highs by fri expected to only be in the 50s and lows friday night into the upper 30s to lower 40s. temps aloft by the end of fri night indicate that its possible that some of the lingering shra in the snowbelt late fri night could mix with some wet snow or graupel. && .long term /saturday through monday/... the gfs is a bit colder than the ecmwf by saturday morning but it will be cold enough for lake effect precipitation regardless. the boundary layer remains a little warm even in the gfs for snow but if it were to verify there could be graupel or sleet or a few wet snow flakes. given the differences in the models, will just mention rain showers for the time being. all of the models show a decent short wave dropping through the trough on saturday and will also include a slight chance of showers across the remainder of the forecast area. temperatures may not get out of the 40s in the higher terrain especially across northwest pa. high pressure is progged to build in on sunday. the gfs backs the flow to southwest and warms quickly ahead of another cold front. the ecmwf is less aggressive and keeps it cold enough for lake effect showers to continue. will split the difference but will keep a low pop in the snowbelt. temperatures will likely recover a bit and could sneak into the lower 60s across northwest ohio. a weak cold front is progged to drop across the area sunday night with a reinforcing push of colder air monday and a risk of lake effect showers continuing. forecast highs back down in the 50s. && .aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/... gusty south winds will continue through the mid afternoon ahead of the cold front under the low level jet. low level moisture will increase this morning as upward motion develops ahead of the front and scattered showers will develop late afternoon into the evening. mvfr ceilings and visibilities likely in some of the showers. winds will decrease by this evening and shift west to northwest after frontal passage this evening, then northerly late tonight. some ifr stratus will likely develop tonight behind the front from kmfd to kcak and kyng where the low level moisture is slow to clear out. outlook...non-vfr developing wed night and continuing through friday. non-vfr possible northeast oh and northwest pa saturday. && .marine... south winds on lake erie will remain brisk and gusty this morning ahead of a cold front and a small craft advisory will continue into the afternoon. the gradient will relax this afternoon and evening and winds will diminish rather quickly by late afternoon and evening. winds will shift northwest behind the front early tonight and veer more northerly by wednesday morning. low pressure is expected to develop on the front over the ohio valley by thursday. the low pressure center may track near or over eastern lake erie later thursday so there is uncertainty on the wind speed and direction especially on eastern lake erie on thursday. north winds will increase and a small craft advisory will be needed at some point on thursday. the low will be east of the lake by friday with a cold north to northwest flow will persist into the weekend. the small craft advisory will likely remain in effect into the weekend. && .cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez142>149. && $$ synopsis...adams near term...adams/djb short term...adams long term...kosarik aviation...kosarik marine...kosarik hr. nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 953 am edt tue oct 18 2016 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142>146-182015- lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh- 953 am edt tue oct 18 2016 ...small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon... .rest of today...southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. mostly sunny late this morning...then becoming mostly cloudy. a chance of showers late. waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. .tonight...southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 10 knots or less. mostly cloudy. a chance of rain showers through the early overnight. waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. .wednesday...north winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. partly sunny. waves 2 feet or less. .wednesday night...northeast winds 10 knots or less. a chance of rain showers overnight. rain showers late. waves 2 feet or less. see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday. the water temperature off toledo is 64 degrees...off cleveland 65 degrees and off erie 63 degrees. $$ lez147>149-182015- lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on- the lake oh-lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh- lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny- 953 am edt tue oct 18 2016 ...small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon... .rest of today...southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. mostly sunny... then becoming mostly cloudy. a chance of showers late. waves 3 to 5 feet. .tonight...southwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 knots or less. mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. .wednesday...north winds less than 10 knots. partly sunny. waves 2 feet or less. .wednesday night...northeast winds 10 knots or less. a chance of rain showers overnight. rain showers late. waves 2 feet or less. see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday. the water temperature off toledo is 64 degrees...off cleveland 65 degrees and off erie 63 degrees. #toledo #weather