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Winter weather forecast in the north

UP of Michigan

Statement as of 3:40 PM EDT on April 18, 2013

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 PM Friday to 8 am EDT
Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Marquette has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow... blowing snow and strong winds... which is
in effect from 5 PM Friday to 8 am EDT Saturday.

Hazardous weather...

• rain will change over to snow on Friday as colder air moves into
  the area from the west. Moderate snow will fall Friday afternoon
  into early Friday night.

• Total snow accumulations Friday afternoon and Friday night of 3 to
  6 inches are expected over east central Upper Michigan... heaviest
  near Lake Superior. Strong winds of 40 to 55 mph Friday afternoon
  into early Friday night will result in considerable blowing and
  drifting snow. The strongest winds and most extensive blowing snow
  will occur in open areas near Lake Superior.

Impacts...

• difficult travel conditions are expected Friday and Friday night
  due to the snow and blowing snow... especially along M-28 near Lake
  Superior.

• Power outages are possible due to heavy wet snow and strong winds.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

• a Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means that
  visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and
  blowing snow.

• Prepare... plan... and stay informed. Visit www.Weather.Gov/MQT

Minneapolis, MN

Statement as of 2:58 PM CDT on April 18, 2013

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 10 am CDT
Friday...

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 10 am CDT Friday.

• Timing: snow will continue through tonight... and will be heavy
  at times with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible.

• Snow accumulation: 6 to 9 inches with local amounts of 10 to 12
  inches possible within 50 miles of a line from Redwood Falls to
  Mora.

• Other impacts: strong north winds are expected today and
  tonight. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph
  are expected. This will lead to some blowing snow in open
  areas by t0night.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of
snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in
an emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight...
food... and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

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Ontonagon County

Statement as of 2:40 PM CDT on April 18, 2013

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 8 PM EDT /7 PM
CDT/ this evening to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday...

Hazardous weather...

• wet and heavy snow will move into the area this evening.

• Heavy wet snow is expected tonight and Friday. Total snow amounts
  by late Friday are expected to exceed a foot near Lake
  Superior... with 6 to 7 inches expected further inland from Bruce
  Crossing to Watersmeet. Locally higher amounts up to 17 inches are
  possible near Lake Superior.

• Strong north winds of 30 to 50 mph are expected... highest near
  Lake Superior. The winds will produce areas of blowing and
  drifting snow.

Impacts...

• very difficult travel conditions are expected late tonight
  and Friday due to the heavy wet snow and blowing snow.

• Strong winds with the heavy wet snow may result in scattered
  power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

• a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means
  severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring.
  Significant amounts of snow... along with widespread blowing
  snow... are forecast that will make travel dangerous.

• Prepare... plan... and stay informed. Visit www.Weather.Gov/MQT

---

mesoscale disc

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0527.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MN...NWRN WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 190013Z - 190515Z

SUMMARY...A SHIELD OF MODERATE SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY
SNOW...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW
RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST -- SHEARED NE TO SW -- CENTERED OVER
SRN MN. E/NE OF THE CYCLONE CENTER...STRONG ASCENT IN THE EXIT
REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET MAX ALIGNING WITH THE APEX OF A DRY SLOT
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AMPLE DCVA ACROSS NWRN WI INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. STRONG ASCENT CURLS AROUND THE CYCLONE ACROSS ERN MN
WITHIN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS ARE PRESENT WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
OF THE CYCLONE.

THE 00Z MPX RAOB SUGGESTS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
TROPOSPHERE THAT WILL SUPPORT SNOW. REDUCED STATIC STABILITY BELOW
THE 850-MB LEVEL AND IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENTS TO SNOWFALL RATES...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE AREA OF STRONGEST ASCENT LIES ACROSS NERN MN AND NWRN WI...WHERE
OVERLAP OF AT LEAST MODEST MAGNITUDES OF LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND DCVA EXISTS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN
THIS AREA. THE SHIELD OF SNOW WILL ADVANCE NEWD DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...IN CONCERT WITH
MOTION OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE.

..COHEN.. 04/19/2013


ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...