• Wed Eve, Oct 30 Update
• Oct 31 update
• Oct 31 pm weather update
• Another update
• Childhood obesity

Rescheduling Trick-or-Treat because of the forecast for rain

(My comments that were posted in an Oct 30, 2013 Toledo Talk thread )

From an Oct 30, 2013 Toledo Blade story

Some area communities changed the times for trick-or-treating after getting spooked by weather forecasts.

Elmore, Port Clinton, Allen Township, Woodville, Gibsonburg, Genoa, Grand Rapids, Fostoria, and Wauseon postponed the festivities for the weekend because forecasts call for rain showers.

Other northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan communities had not reported any changes to their trick-or-treat events, mostly scheduled for Thursday night.

Toledoans are a little tougher than Allen Township wherever that is. We have two gang maps. The threat of rain won't stop trick-or-treating in T-town.

In our neighborhood with the many large oak trees, I'd be more concerned about the possibility of falling branches, since we may get our first big wind of the fall on Thursday. Maybe the kids should wear helmets.

Each year from late October to early January, we have a few days with big howling winds, which is typical for the Great Lakes Region. The Gales of November. If we don't hire a tree company to remove the dead branches, those winds will do the job.

At the moment, however, Thursday's forecast winds aren't too bad, so it must be the thunderstorm threat that is scaring people about trick-or-treating on Halloween.

For the past two or three days, the Cleveland National Weather Service has been forecasting the possibility of severe weather on Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center's forecast for Thursday, however, shows the 'Slight Risk' for severe weather to be located in the southwest quarter of Ohio.

http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/hazardous-weather-outlook.html
issued on Wed, Oct 30, 2013 at 4:27 a.m. :

there is the possibility for severe thunderstorms late thursday afternoon into thursday night. the main threat will be strong thunderstorm winds. keep in mind...strong wind gusts could possibly be associated with showers and no thunder is heard.

a cold front will move through the area late thursday night.

gusty winds ahead of a cold front will occur thursday into thursday night. winds could gust as high as 40 mph across the area and could cause objects not secured to be blown around. there is the possibility that either a wind advisory or high wind watch could be issued for thursday into thursday night.

http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast.html

Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, then showers and thunderstorms after 11am. High near 67. Breezy, with a south wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Low around 48. Windy, with a south wind 18 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wed Eve, Oct 30 Update

The most likely weather complaint on Thursday could be that it's too warm with wearing a costume. I don't think the winds will be that bad during the trick-or-treat period, and a little "breeze" may be welcomed. And at the moment, it seems that the threat for thunderstorms has diminished.

The rescheduled trick-or-treat date is Saturday evening for those other communities, and the weather may actually be worse. It will definitely be colder on Saturday, maybe by 20 degrees with a threat of rain showers.

Excerpts from the most recent forecast discussion:
http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast-discussion.html

the low is progged to continue to deepen as it tracks into the northern great lakes on thursday. a classic track for strong winds on the great lakes. the forecast is somewhat complicated.

we will probably stay below wind advisory criteria although it will be close across nw ohio especially later in the day as the low level jet increases.

highs well in the 60s to the lower 70s!

the better chance for wind problems would seem to be thursday night. with the cold front. the front will likely get to the i-75 corridor in northwest ohio between 04-06z and then move east late.

can we sneak in trick or treat before the worst gets here? those heading out should be prepared for windy and showery [and warm] conditions and stay up on the threat for thunderstorms. will not issue any watches/warnings advisories yet... will wait at least another model run or two to try and pin down the threat and timing and potential for severe thunderstorms versus a wind advisory or wind warning.

As the media would say, stay tuned as this crisis unfolds.

Toledo's weather forecast:

Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 69. Breezy, with a south wind 11 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Oct 31 update

Toledo and many other communities re-scheduled trick-or-treat for Sun, Nov 3, 2013 at the normal 6:00 to 8:00 p.m.

Today's forecast:

Late Afternoon: Showers. High near 65. Breezy, with a south wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Oct 31 pm weather update

"but not thunder and lightning."

Since I'm more interested in the weather than trick-or-treat, I'd add that thunder and lightning were not forecast during the trick-or-treat time of 6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. Some rain, wind, and mild temps were forecast. The storm threat was forecast to occur later.

Around 4:00 a.m. today, the Cleveland National Weather Service said the only possibility for thunder would probably be with the frontal passage, which was expected to occur in the Toledo area around Midnight.

The afternoon forecast discussion states :

timing of the front is approximately 10 pm in toledo...midnight in cleveland. we expect to see a band of robust showers (that may or may not contain thunder) move across the area with the passage of the cold front.

Probably the most annoying weather aspect for this evening and tonight will be the wind, but tis the season for these types of systems.

The Wind Advisory is in effect from 7:00 p.m. this evening to 6:00 a.m. tomorrow.

winds will increase this evening and peak with the frontal passage between 10 pm and 1 am. showers along the front will bring wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph down to the surface.

Currently, a small band of storms is moving through southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana. These storms are tracking northeast and may impact northwest Ohio later.

More from this afternoon's forecast discussion:

any thunderstorm that develops would have the potential to be strong winds of 50-60 mph down to the surface. the more likely scenario is a band of strong showers that will bring gusts of 40-50 mph down to the ground. the duration for the highest winds will be fairly brief...but winds will remain gusty overnight given the cold advection.

The Storm Prediction Center, however, has not issued any watches nor mesoscale discussions for IN and IL.

Just in case: First Energy Outage Status Map

Another update

7:00 p.m. Toledo area airport weather conditions :

• Express (Treece 1) : Overcast, 60 F, wind S 14 mph - Gust 26 mph
• Executive (Treece 2) : Light Rain Fog/Mist, 60 F, wind S 18 mph - Gust 30 mph
• Suburban: Overcast, 61 F, wind S 17 mph - Gust 25 mph

7:06 p.m. Oct 31 Cleveland NWS forecast discussion

should be no major problems other than the rain and the gusty breeze for the trick or treaters this evening.

i think our previous forecast timing of the front is a couple of hours too fast

Tornado Watch is up for the lower Ohio River Valley. The central Indiana storms north of the watch box may reach parts of northwest Ohio. But the storms in Illinois and Missouri that caused the watch may stay south of northwest Ohio.

We'll probably get a rumble of thunder like last night.

Live radar. Precip is moving mostly to the northeast.

Childhood obesity

(from my Nov 4, 2013 comment in TT thread)

"With the childhood obesity problem in America, shouldn't the kids have to at least WALK to houses to get their free candy?"

That's why I choose not to hand out candy. I'm doing my part to fight childhood obesity. If I can save one life, then it's worth it for me to ignore trick-or-treat. It's about the future of our kids. Plus, I could not be interrupted from watching the Browns-Ravens game that Hoops mentioned.

I still have a bunch of small, green tomatoes from our garden. I considered handing those out in case some kids were fans of Mother Earth News, but that might fly only in the Old West End.

Maybe next year for trick-or-treat, I'll hand out the new food substitute Soylent, created by a computer geek. (not Soylent Green) You can make your own soylent.

#weather - #humor - #event - #blog_jr