Toledo voters

"Toledoans are the sons and daughters of farmers, heavy manufacturing factory workers, all made of hard working stern stuff ..."

I don't understand what that has to do with anything, but for the record, Toledoans are also the sons and daughters of nurses, designers, chefs, accountants, etc. who also work very hard.

The rest of this post could be a bit numbers heavy.

For most Toledoans, none of this politics stuff matters much anyway, and that's probably okay.

It was no surprise that Toledo's voter turnout in the September primary was 15 percent.

I don't know what the expected turnout is in Toledo for tomorrow's election, but I'm guessing it will be around only 30 percent.

Since the September 2013 primary had a lower turnout than the September 2009 primary, then I assume the same will occur with the November 2013 general election.

Toledo's voter turnout in the November 2009 election was 34 percent, so that's why I'm guessing tomorrow's Toledo voter turnout will be 30 to 32 percent.

And since some eligible voters are not registered to vote, then more than 70 percent of Toledo's eligible voters will not participate in tomorrow's election. That seems to be the biggest message of all.

Apparently, Toledo has only about 160,000 registered voters.

According to the census, Toledo's 2010 population was 287,208. 24% of residents were under the age of 18.

In the 2010 census, 68,930 Toledoans were too young to vote.

That means 218,278 Toledoans were eligible to vote. Granted, Toledo's population has declined a bit more since the 2010 census, so the number of Toledoans eligible to vote today may be around 215,000, but only 160,000 are registered.

A difference of 55,000? That seems off.

25 percent of eligible Toledo voters are not even registered to vote. Really?

In September 2005, Toledo had 189,454 registered voters. And that number today is allegedly around 160,000. That rate of decline among registered voters is greater than Toledo's population decline. Maybe that's because most of the people leaving the city or dying off were registered voters, leaving a growing percentage of unregistered voters in Toledo.

For the September 2013 primary, the only cities that held elections in Lucas County were Toledo and Maumee. The Lucas County BOE reported a total number of registered voters for that day of: 164,645. Take away the Maumee voters, and I'm guessing the Toledo number is about 160,000 registered voters.

The turnout is measured against registered voters and not eligible voters.

Let's be optimistic and say Toledo will have a "high" turnout tomorrow of 35 percent.

35% * 160,00 = 56,000 Toledoans will vote tomorrow out of approximately 215,000 Toledoans who are eligible to vote. (That's a real turnout of 26 percent.)

In Toledo's November 2009 mayoral election, 67,000 votes were cast with a 34 percent turnout. But a 35 percent turnout tomorrow may only equal 56,000 voters?? That seems like a large drop-off in only four years.

If Toledo's turnout is under 35 percent, then it's possible that the number of Toledoans voting tomorrow will be lower than the number of Toledoans who are eligible to vote but are not registered to vote.

Bizarre. But my arithmetic may be way off, since I've had no coffee today.

If 67,000 voters voted in Toledo's November 2009 mayoral election, then I find it hard to believe that fewer than 60,000 votes will be cast in tomorrow's election.

But if my math is correct, and my turnout prediction is correct, then only about 25 percent of Toledo's eligible voters will vote tomorrow.