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Possible Jan 1, 2014 snowstorm
late sun night, dec 29, 2013 afd:
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2013
COLD LONG TERM EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SNOW AND EYE ON
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WEDS INTO THURS.
BRIEF BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR START OF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE
PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO REGION OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUES AFTN AS UPPER
LVL TROF MOVES THRU. BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH BUT
MAY SKIRT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS RELEGATED NEAR
IN/MI BORDER. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS (DUSTING TO INCH) POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH OF US 6 WITH THIS WAVE. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL
WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT AREA WEDS INTO THURS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT PRONOUNCED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE OF ROCKIES WEDS AND
EJECTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY BY THU.
GENERAL TRACK OF SFC LOW FROM SO MO WEDS AFTN TO CENTRAL IN WEDS
NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL OH BY THU AM. WITH 850MB LOW CLOSING OFF AND
MOVING RIGHT ACROSS AREA AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS WOULD PUT
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER CWA AND IN LINE FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOW. 12Z MODEL SUITE STILL DIFFERS A BIT ON TIMING WITH GFS
FASTEST...GEM IN THE MIDDLE...AND ECMWF REMAINING ON SLOWER BUT
STRONGER SIDE OF ENVELOPE. HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARD THIS
SLOWER COLDER SOLUTION WITH CONFIDENCE GROWING IN PROBABILITY OF
ACCUM SNOW ESP ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS POINT TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC ACCUMS BUT COULD SEE UPWARDS OF
3-6 INCHES BASED OFF CURRENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS/QPF
ACCORDINGLY ESP ACROSS NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AS
SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH FOR START OF 2014. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM IN NW
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN BRIEFLY FOR END OF THE
WEEK/START OF WEEKEND. MODEL DISCREPANCIES GROW AGAIN BY END OF
PERIOD BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM BY SUNDAY INTO START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLUNGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
TEMP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF EACH WAVE AND
SUBSEQUENT MIDWEEK SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID TEENS TO LOW 20S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS THRU THE WEEK. BRIEF MODERATION
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 BUT THIS MAY HINGE ON
DEPTH OF SNOWPACK.
##LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CREATE A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH RESPECT TO
THESE SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06-12Z. GIVEN THE SHORT WINDOW OF LIFT AND MOISTURE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE BETTER
MOISTURE. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO WITH LOWS OF 10 TO 13 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA GIVEN THE
COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
ON TUESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW PROVIDING ANOTHER COOL
QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THIS
APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
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