• Fri, Jan 3, 2014
• Jan 4

Jan 5-6, 2014 possible storm

Fri, Jan 3, 2014

Morning forecast discussions:

• Cleveland: depending upon the exact track and timing of the low most if not all the area could see a widespread 2-4 or 3-5 inches.

• Detroit/Pontiac: the latest model runs suggest that a solid 5 to 8 inches of snow will be possible over a good part of the cwa [county warning area]

• Northern Indiana: the garcia method with mixing ratios of 3 to over 4 g/kg supports snowfall of 4 to 8 inches in a 12 hour window.

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"Winter Storm Watch hoisted for the counties in the NWS Northern Indiana area."

That includes the counties of Fulton and Henry.

Also, the Detroit/Pontiac NWS issued a Winter Storm Watch that includes Monroe and Lenawee counties.

Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Saturday night through late Sunday night.

From the N. IN office:

light snow is expected to begin late Saturday evening. The snow may become heavy at times Sunday into Sunday evening. Accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are possible through Sunday night.

Gusty northwest winds will cause blowing and drifting snow Sunday into Sunday night.

From the Detroit/Pontiac office:

accumulating snow will begin late Saturday and will peak in intensity on Sunday afternoon.

Snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are forecast by Sunday night with the highest amounts along and south of a Howell to Sandusky line.

Temperatures will hold in the mid 20s.

Northern Indiana National Weather Service office:

• http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx
• Jan 3, 2014 - YouTube video - Major Winter Storm Briefing

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6-12 is playing margin of error for the model spread right now. So that is a safe one to go with.

All the forecast models are in the top of this thread and the totals shown in them are NEW snowfall, not what is on the ground.

Quick recap of the totals...

GEM: 6-8"
12Z GFS: 12-15"
12Z NAM: 6-8"
12Z Euro: 8-10"

! posted by JustaSooner on Jan 03, 2014 at 03:12:00 pm # +

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urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
406 pm est fri jan 3 2014

...snow and dangerously low wind chills are on the way...

.low pressure will move through the ohio valley on sunday. snow
will develop across northwest ohio ahead of the low towards
morning sunday with snow continuing through the day and into the
evening before ending. north central and northeast ohio as well as
northwest pennsylvania will see snow from mainly sunday afternoon
on although a little rain could mix in as well. a strong cold
front will follow the low bringing in very cold air to the region
through mid week.

ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-040515-
/o.new.kcle.ws.a.0001.140105t0900z-140106t0600z/
/o.new.kcle.wc.a.0001.140106t0600z-140107t2000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-
wyandot-crawford-marion-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...marion
406 pm est fri jan 3 2014

...winter storm watch in effect from late saturday night through
late sunday night...
...wind chill watch in effect from late sunday night through
tuesday afternoon...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter
storm watch...which is in effect from late saturday night through
late sunday night. a wind chill watch has also been issued. this
wind chill watch is in effect from late sunday night through
tuesday afternoon.

• accumulations...4 to 8 inches of snow.

• timing...mainly sunday and sunday evening. dangerous wind chills
  will move in sunday night and continue through tuesday

• winds...generally light sunday. sunday night through tuesday
  from the west to southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

• impacts...snow covered roads and travel delays sunday and sunday
  evening.

• temperatures...highs near or below monday and tuesday with
  morning lows in the teens below zero.

• wind chill readings...as low as 35 to 40 degrees below zero at
  times especially tuesday morning and wednesday morning.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you
are within the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing
weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or
the local news media for the latest updates and possible
warnings.

a wind chill watch is issued when strong winds will combine with
cold temperatures to create dangerously cold conditions for
exposed skin. the wind will make it feel like it is 15 degrees
below zero or colder for a period of several hours. if you will
be outdoors use common sense and dress warmly...making sure that
all exposed skin is covered. if possible...avoid prolonged
exposure to the cold to prevent frostbite and hypothermia. stay
tuned to weather radio for further details or updates.

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For the next storm ...

Detroit/Pontiac NWS site :

• Jan 4-6th, 2014 Winter Storm
  • Event Slide Briefing - pdf file
  • Around 10 inches of snow predicted for Monroe County.

A couple slides from the briefing:

Jan 4

Cleveland NWS this morning:

6 to 8 inch storm totals for northwest ohio seems reasonable at this point.

A bit more snow is expected in southeast Michigan.

Toledo's forecast low for Tuesday morning is -15.

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Last two runs of the NAM model have taken a slight jog to the west with the heaviest snow. This could likely result in a very tight gradient across the Toledo Metro area specifically if it verifies (GFS is still east). Example of what I'm talking about...

Delta, Swanton, and much of western Lucas County 8-10".
Monroe, Toledo, Maumee, Waterville, down through Henry County 6-8".
Eastern Lucas County through BG 3-5"
Port Clinton to Findlay 1-2"

It's not unusual to have a tight gradient like this over a small area, so people just need to have some understanding of the possibility. When people don't get this then end up calling out forecasters for screwing up the forecast because their street corner didn't get X amount of snow. If you get really close in to the NAM solution on Lucas County itself, it does go from 8-10" NW and WC part of the county to 4-5" in the eastern tip.

Keep in mind there is always a margin of area on placement in forecast models, and I definitely don't think it's going to end up exactly like that...but could sway 20-40 miles either way.

! posted by JustaSooner on Jan 04, 2014 at 10:03:43 am

#weather