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Jan 5-6, 2014 possible storm

Fri, Jan 3, 2014

Morning forecast discussions:

Cleveland: depending upon the exact track and timing of the low most if not all the area could see a widespread 2-4 or 3-5 inches.

Detroit/Pontiac: the latest model runs suggest that a solid 5 to 8 inches of snow will be possible over a good part of the cwa [county warning area]

Northern Indiana: the garcia method with mixing ratios of 3 to over 4 g/kg supports snowfall of 4 to 8 inches in a 12 hour window.

"Winter Storm Watch hoisted for the counties in the NWS Northern Indiana area."

That includes the counties of Fulton and Henry.

Also, the Detroit/Pontiac NWS issued a Winter Storm Watch that includes Monroe and Lenawee counties.

Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Saturday night through late Sunday night.

From the N. IN office:

light snow is expected to begin late Saturday evening. The snow may become heavy at times Sunday into Sunday evening. Accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are possible through Sunday night.
Gusty northwest winds will cause blowing and drifting snow Sunday into Sunday night.

From the Detroit/Pontiac office:

accumulating snow will begin late Saturday and will peak in intensity on Sunday afternoon.
Snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are forecast by Sunday night with the highest amounts along and south of a Howell to Sandusky line.

Temperatures will hold in the mid 20s.

Northern Indiana National Weather Service office:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx
Jan 3, 2014 - YouTube video - Major Winter Storm Briefing

6-12 is playing margin of error for the model spread right now. So that is a safe one to go with.

All the forecast models are in the top of this thread and the totals shown in them are NEW snowfall, not what is on the ground.

Quick recap of the totals...

GEM: 6-8"
12Z GFS: 12-15"
12Z NAM: 6-8"
12Z Euro: 8-10"

! posted by JustaSooner on Jan 03, 2014 at 03:12:00 pm # +

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
406 pm est fri jan 3 2014

...snow and dangerously low wind chills are on the way...

.low pressure will move through the ohio valley on sunday. snow
will develop across northwest ohio ahead of the low towards
morning sunday with snow continuing through the day and into the
evening before ending. north central and northeast ohio as well as
northwest pennsylvania will see snow from mainly sunday afternoon
on although a little rain could mix in as well. a strong cold
front will follow the low bringing in very cold air to the region
through mid week.

ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-040515-
/o.new.kcle.ws.a.0001.140105t0900z-140106t0600z/
/o.new.kcle.wc.a.0001.140106t0600z-140107t2000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-
wyandot-crawford-marion-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...marion
406 pm est fri jan 3 2014

...winter storm watch in effect from late saturday night through
late sunday night...
...wind chill watch in effect from late sunday night through
tuesday afternoon...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter
storm watch...which is in effect from late saturday night through
late sunday night. a wind chill watch has also been issued. this
wind chill watch is in effect from late sunday night through
tuesday afternoon.

accumulations...4 to 8 inches of snow.

timing...mainly sunday and sunday evening. dangerous wind chills
will move in sunday night and continue through tuesday

winds...generally light sunday. sunday night through tuesday
from the west to southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

impacts...snow covered roads and travel delays sunday and sunday
evening.

temperatures...highs near or below monday and tuesday with
morning lows in the teens below zero.

wind chill readings...as low as 35 to 40 degrees below zero at
times especially tuesday morning and wednesday morning.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you
are within the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing
weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or
the local news media for the latest updates and possible
warnings.

a wind chill watch is issued when strong winds will combine with
cold temperatures to create dangerously cold conditions for
exposed skin. the wind will make it feel like it is 15 degrees
below zero or colder for a period of several hours. if you will
be outdoors use common sense and dress warmly...making sure that
all exposed skin is covered. if possible...avoid prolonged
exposure to the cold to prevent frostbite and hypothermia. stay
tuned to weather radio for further details or updates.

For the next storm ...

Detroit/Pontiac NWS site :

Jan 4-6th, 2014 Winter Storm
- Event Slide Briefing - pdf file
- Around 10 inches of snow predicted for Monroe County.

A couple slides from the briefing:

Jan 4

Cleveland NWS this morning:

6 to 8 inch storm totals for northwest ohio seems reasonable at this point.

A bit more snow is expected in southeast Michigan.

Toledo's forecast low for Tuesday morning is -15.

Last two runs of the NAM model have taken a slight jog to the west with the heaviest snow. This could likely result in a very tight gradient across the Toledo Metro area specifically if it verifies (GFS is still east). Example of what I'm talking about...

Delta, Swanton, and much of western Lucas County 8-10".
Monroe, Toledo, Maumee, Waterville, down through Henry County 6-8".
Eastern Lucas County through BG 3-5"
Port Clinton to Findlay 1-2"

It's not unusual to have a tight gradient like this over a small area, so people just need to have some understanding of the possibility. When people don't get this then end up calling out forecasters for screwing up the forecast because their street corner didn't get X amount of snow. If you get really close in to the NAM solution on Lucas County itself, it does go from 8-10" NW and WC part of the county to 4-5" in the eastern tip.

Keep in mind there is always a margin of area on placement in forecast models, and I definitely don't think it's going to end up exactly like that...but could sway 20-40 miles either way.

! posted by JustaSooner on Jan 04, 2014 at 10:03:43 am

Toledo area temps warmed to 30 - 32 degrees this afternoon with sunny skies for most of the day. Our temps will reach the 30s again late in the upcoming week, but the next four days will be tricky.

From this afternoon's area forecast discussion, issued by the Cleveland National Weather Service :

Snowfall - Sunday and early Monday:

as for the winter storm warning...will drop all watches and upgrade. warning will begin across the western counties about 9z sunday morning and continue through sunday night.
expecting 4 to 8 inches there with the heaviest snow fdy to tol.

sunday night expect another 1-3/2-4 more inches although winds will increase significantly as temps plummet. this will cause significant blowing/drifting.

Wind Chill Temps - Monday and Tuesday:

very dangerous situation evolving as arctic air is still on track to blast across the region.
during the forecast period wind chill values of -35 to -40f are possible will the depth of the cold air monday night into tuesday morning.

will cover this with a wind chill warning (my first in 28 years) in the absence of a winter storm warning.

Late week "warmer" weather:

temperatures will warm wednesday through friday. highs will be back into the 30s thursday into friday with a couple more ripples of low pressure bringing chances of snow to the region. accumulations of snow may occur thursday into thursday night then again on saturday.

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 4, 2014 2:59 pm

Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind 7 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Sunday: Snow. High near 26. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Snow before 11pm, then snow likely between 11pm and 1am, then widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow after 1am. Low around -2. Wind chill values as low as -16. Blustery, with a north wind 11 to 20 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Monday: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers before 8am, then widespread blowing snow and a slight chance of snow showers between 8am and 3pm, then widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0. Wind chill values as low as -32. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around -16. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers before 8am, then widespread blowing snow after 8am. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 1. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: Widespread blowing snow before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -2.

Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30.

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
406 pm est sat jan 4 2014

...snow and dangerously low wind chills are on the way...

.a winter storm system will move northeast across ohio sunday
spreading snow across the entire area. a strong arctic front will
follow ushering in bitter cold arctic air for the beginning of
the work week.

ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-050515-
/o.upg.kcle.ws.a.0001.140105t0900z-140106t0600z/
/o.new.kcle.ws.w.0002.140105t0900z-140106t0900z/
/o.upg.kcle.wc.a.0001.140106t0600z-140107t2000z/
/o.new.kcle.wc.w.0001.140106t0900z-140108t1400z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-
wyandot-crawford-marion-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...marion
406 pm est sat jan 4 2014

...winter storm warning in effect from 4 am sunday to 4 am est
monday...
...wind chill warning in effect from 4 am monday to 9 am est
wednesday...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter
storm warning for heavy snow and blowing snow which is in effect
from 4 am sunday to 4 am est monday. a wind chill warning has also
been issued. this wind chill warning is in effect from 4 am monday
to 9 am est wednesday.

accumulations...sunday snowfall of 4 to 6 inches. sunday night
snowfall of 1 to 3 inches. storm totals of 5 to 9 inches.

timing...snow will begin before sunrise with the heaviest snow
expected to fall between 10 am and 6 pm. snow will continue into
sunday night but will decrease in intensity. the main concern
after midnight will be strong westerly winds that will usher
frigid air into the region. dangerous wind chills of 20 to 40
degrees below zero will be possible. blowing and drifting snow
will also be a problem.

winds...generally light sunday. 15 to 30 mph with gusts around
35 mph possible sunday night through tuesday. winds from the
northwest sunday night then backing to the west and southwest.

visibilities...will drop to below a half mile at times in the
heaviest snowfall on sunday. as the stronger winds arrive sunday
night visibilities may drop to near zero in blowing snow.

impacts...snow covered roads. blowing and drifting snow sunday
night through tuesday. it may take 10 minutes or less to get
frostbite on exposed skin monday into tuesday.

temperatures...dropping to below zero on monday and remaining
near or below zero into wednesday. morning lows in the teens
below zero tuesday morning.

wind chill readings...20 to as low as 40 degrees below zero at
times especially monday through wednesday morning.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm warning is issued when severe winter weather is
expected. heavy snow and/or ice will cause hazardous driving
conditions. if you will be traveling in the warning area you
should choose an alternate route if possible, or you should use
extreme caution if travel is unavoidable. stay tuned to noaa
weather radio for further details or updates.

a wind chill warning is issued when a strong wind will combine
with cold temperatures to create dangerously cold conditions for
exposed skin. the wind will make it feel like it is 25 degrees
below zero or colder for several hours. those planning to venture
outdoors should use common sense and dress warmly.

hazardous weather outlook
hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
409 pm est sat jan 4 2014

ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-052115-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-
wyandot-crawford-marion-
409 pm est sat jan 4 2014

...winter storm warning in effect from 4 am sunday to 4 am est
monday...
...wind chill warning in effect from 4 am monday to 9 am est
wednesday...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

winter storm warning.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

winter storm warning.
wind chill warning.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Jan 5

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 5, 2014 6:15 am

Today: Snow. High near 31. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. Low around 1. Wind chill values as low as -16. Blustery, with a north wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Monday: A chance of snow showers before 9am, then widespread blowing snow and a slight chance of snow showers between 9am and 3pm, then widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers after 3pm. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 2. Wind chill values as low as -24. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Monday Night: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around -16. Wind chill values as low as -40. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers before 8am, then widespread blowing snow after 8am. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near -6. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: Widespread blowing snow before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -6.

Wednesday: Snow showers likely after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
326 am est sun jan 5 2014

...snow and dangerously low wind chills are on the way...

.a winter storm system will move northeast across ohio this
afternoon and evening spreading snow across the entire area. a
strong arctic front will follow ushering in bitter cold arctic air
for the beginning of the work week.

ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-051630-
/o.con.kcle.ws.w.0002.140105t0900z-140106t0900z/
/o.con.kcle.wc.w.0001.140106t0900z-140108t1400z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-
wyandot-crawford-marion-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...
upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...marion
326 am est sun jan 5 2014

...winter storm warning remains in effect until 4 am est monday...
...wind chill warning remains in effect from 4 am monday to 9 am
est wednesday...

accumulations...snowfall totals today of 4 to 6 inches. snowfall
tonight of 2 to 4 inches. storm totals of 6 to 10 inches.

timing...light snow will develop this morning with the heaviest
snow expected to fall between 12 am and 8 pm. snow will continue
tonight but will gradually diminish in intensity. the main
concern after midnight will be strong westerly winds that will
usher frigid air into the region. dangerous wind chills of 20 to
30 degrees below zero will be possible. blowing and drifting
snow will also be a problem.

winds...generally light today....becoming northwest at 15 to 30
mph with gusts around 35 mph tonight. west to southwest winds of
25 to 35 mph will continue into tuesday.

visibilities...will drop to a half mile or less at times today
in moderate snow. visibilities may drop to near zero in blowing
snow tonight.

impacts...snow covered roads. blowing and drifting snow sunday
night through tuesday. it may take 10 minutes or less to get
frostbite on exposed skin monday into tuesday.

temperatures...dropping to below zero on monday and remaining
near or below zero into wednesday. morning lows in the teens
below zero tuesday morning.

wind chill readings...20 to as low as 40 degrees below zero at
times especially monday through wednesday morning.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm warning is issued when severe winter weather is
expected. heavy snow and/or ice will cause hazardous driving
conditions. if you will be traveling in the warning area you
should choose an alternate route if possible... or you should use
extreme caution if travel is unavoidable. stay tuned to noaa
weather radio for further details or updates.

hazardous weather outlook
hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
500 am est sun jan 5 2014

ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-061000-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-
wyandot-crawford-marion-
500 am est sun jan 5 2014

...winter storm warning in effect until 4 am est monday...
...wind chill warning in effect from 4 am monday to 9 am est
wednesday...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

winter storm warning.
wind chill warning.

.days two through seven...monday through saturday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

wind chill warning.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

#weather

From JR's : articles
3244 words - 20571 chars - 18 min read
created on Jan 03, 2014 at 12:41:01 pm
updated on Jan 05, 2014 at 11:57:09 am - #
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