Sample area forecast discussion

000
fxus61 kcle 171345
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
945 am edt mon jun 17 2013

.synopsis...
the threat for showers and thunderstorms remains until a cold
front across the upper lakes sinks southward across nw pa and nrn
oh tuesday. high pressure will take its place across the great
lakes for the remainder of the work week.

&&

.near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
have made just minor changes to the forecast...mainly to clouds.
temps seem on track. latest guidance including hrrr continues to
show showers and storms firing over lake erie late today and then
moving inland. will continue to monitor.

previous...starting to get some patchy fog reported in the obs...most
notably where the most rain fell yesterday. have added a couple of
hours of patchy for to the forecast grids since some of the
visibilities are below a half mil. area stabilized early this
morning and with nothing to initiate a shower/ts...much of the
first part of the day is expected to remain dry. a frontal
boundary still lingers just north of the ohio border...dividing
mid and upper 60 dewpoints to its south from mid 50s dewpoints to
its north...but it is much less defined than yesterday. 00z dtx
sounding also shows the relative drying that has taken place.
should not have to worry about shra/ts for a good part of today.
will bring low precip chances into erie pa after 2 pm and into cle
after 5p as instability increases and frontal zone across mi into
ontario begins to develop scattered convection. with the general
westerly flow...h8 temps creep up a couple of degrees for today.
so will tack on some for the highs. this will put nw ohio solidly
into the mid 80s.

&&

.short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/...
upper trough sharpens and frontal boundary will finally start to
sink southward. scattered convection expected across mi/ontario
for the late afternoon and that will begin to seep into nw pa/nrn
ohio during the early evening. will maximize precip chances then
in the evening...tapering them overnight as we stabilize. front
though will be slow to flush through the area and will keep some
precip chances inland for tuesday. mild again tonight with 60s for
lows. tuesdays temps will remain mild across the south...but the
effects of cooler and drier high pressure across the central great
lakes will begin to overspread the lakeshore.

good model consensus for a dry period with high pressure dominant
for tuesday night through thursday night. highs will slip back
slightly below normal and nights again will get into the lower
50s...with a few upper 40s possible. ample sun and clearing
through the period.

&&

.long term /friday through sunday/...
gfs and ecmwf showing a developing upper ridge across the south
central and southeastern states into the ohio valley late week and
into the weekend which means on balance...a bit more heat in the
region. friday models show a surface high across the great lakes and
ohio valley with low pressure in ks/ne. given the surface high in
the region went with a dry forecast for the day. humidity will be
increasing saturday into sunday as the both the high and low drift
east setting up a southerly conveyor out of the glfmx. sunday the
low will be in the area with a warm front to our east and a trailing
cold front west. expecting a decent shot of afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms saturday and sunday although with the upper
high also nosing into the area will hold pops to the chance
category. expect highs from the low to mid 80s.

&&

.aviation /14z monday through friday/...
early morning fog/mist across the area with most locations mvfr
although lifr at kcak and kyng. fog/mist should burn off quickly
this morning but at least mvfr restrictions will likely last thru
14z at kyng and kcak. for the remainder of the day expecting vfr
conditions with mainly scattered clouds between 4 and 6 thousand
feet although local cumulus scheme suggests a few hours of bkn
across the east half of the area. after 00z expecting increasing
clouds from 10k and below as next cold front approaches from the
north. bought vcsh to much of area after 04z although an isolated
shower not out of the question east half by late afternoon.

.outlook...mainly vfr except for early morning mist/fog.

&&

.marine...
weak stationary front along the south shore of lake erie early today
will begin to drift south through the morning as another cold front
drops across the central lakes toward the area. this second front
will move across the lake this evening. high pressure will
follow...building across the central great lakes tuesday through
thursday. the high will drift to new england on friday. expecting
southwest winds on the lake today ahead of the cold front. winds
will turn north tonight and then northeast for tuesday. with the
high to our north...winds will remain from the northeast from
tuesday through wednesday night or thursday before shifting east to
southeast friday. not expecting winds or waves to get high enough
for a small craft advisory through the period however the
northeast flow will make a 2 to 3 foot chop on the central and
west third nearshore waters midweek.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...oudeman
near term...kubina/oudeman
short term...oudeman
long term...tk
aviation...tk
marine...tk

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