Sample day 1 convective outlook text page

(from the spc's rss file)

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0743 am cdt mon jun 17 2013

valid 171300z - 181200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over the cntrl and srn high
plains...

...synopsis...

a high-latitude blocking pattern will be maintained from the nern
pacific across canada with a slight amplification of the large-scale
pattern over the conus. a multi-stream series of vorticity maxima
will translate through this flow regime...the most notable of which
will traverse the great lakes region and upper midwest.

in the low levels...the primary baroclinic zone will remain along
the srn periphery of stronger midlevel flow from the cntrl high
plains ewd through the mid/lower-mo and oh valleys to mid-atlantic
states. farther to the n...a cold front will settle swd into the
great lakes and new england in tandem with the above-mentioned
impulses progressing through the base of a mid/upper-level low over
quebec. over the srn plains...a nocturnal mcs has established an
outflow boundary across wrn and nrn parts of tx.

...cntrl/srn high plains this afternoon into tonight...

a wly midlevel flow regime will replenish the eml across the region
today atop a relatively moist boundary layer with afternoon mlcape
values of 1500-3000 j/kg. low-level upslope flow...and convergence
along the synoptic front and/or residual outflow boundaries will
foster the development of widely scattered tstms through the peak of
the diurnal heating cycle. similar to sunday...initial storm mode
will likely be supercellular owing to 35-45 of effective bulk shear
with large hail being the primary hazard. aggregating storm-scale
cold pools will promote upscale growth of storms into sewd-moving
clusters by late evening with the risk for isolated damaging winds
and hail persisting into the overnight hours.

...lower elevations of the cntrl/srn plains into mid/lower-ms and
lower-oh valleys this afternoon and evening...

a large mcs extending from an mcv over ern ks into n-cntrl tx is
currently in a state of decay. however...the interaction of a
sufficiently strong/deep cold pool with a very moist...moderately
unstable environment will maintain an isolated damaging wind threat
across nrn tx this morning. by afternoon...low-level uplift along
the leading edge of the residual cold pool will promote renewed tstm
development within a weakly sheared but moderately to strongly
unstable air mass. locally damaging wet microbursts appear to be
the primary hazard owing to the high pw air mass and potential for
excessive water loading within convective downdrafts.

...great lakes into new england this afternoon and evening...

isolated to widely scattered tstms will be possible along a
sewd-moving cold front this afternoon as deep ascent is augmented by
a series of vorticity maxima rotating around the quebec upper low.
deep-layer shear will be sufficiently strong for organized/rotating
updrafts capable of hail and locally damaging wind gusts. the
primary factor limiting a more robust severe weather threat appears
to be the marginal amount of instability forecast.

..mead/cohen.. 06/17/2013

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