Sample day 2 convective outlook text page

spc ac 170544

day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1244 am cdt mon jun 17 2013

valid 181200z - 191200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms for parts of the cntrl/srn high
plains tue afternoon/evening...

...synopsis...
an amplified upper-level trough will penetrate inland in the
west...with a downstream ridge shifting gradually ewd from the
rockies to the high plains. a shortwave impulse will progress ewd
across srn quebec towards the canadian maritimes within a broader
sern canadian trough. a lingering vort max will dampen as it ejects
e/sewd from the upper ms valley to the upper oh valley by early wed.
at the surface...a weak cold front should push sewd the northeast
and midwest. a composite front/outflow should become
quasi-stationary across the srn plains.

...cntrl/srn high plains...
although abundant convection in preceding days across the plains
will yield pockets of an overturned air mass across the lower
plains...low-level upslope flow will continue and should maintain
50s dew points in the lee of the srn rockies. scattered tstms should
again form by late afternoon along the higher terrain and spread
e/sewd into the evening. with a belt of confluent mid/upper-level
flow undercutting a more prominent ridge to the n...deep-layer shear
will be sufficient for supercells with primary initial risk of large
hail. a localized tornado threat is also apparent...where low-level
srh should be enhanced by the probable presence of a composite
front/outflow in the wake of the preceding days of convection.
upscale growth into one or more mcs/s is again possible with an
increasing risk for severe wind during the evening.

...nrn rockies into parts of the nrn/cntrl high plains...
low-level upslope flow will strengthen in advance of the upper-level
trough entering the west....which should yield middle 40s to lower
50s surface dew points being maintained at peak diurnal mixing along
the lee of the rockies. with steep tropospheric lapse
rates...moderate buoyancy should develop. however...most of the nrn
into the cntrl high plains will remain beneath a mid-level ridge.
this will serve to marginalize deep-layer shear for supercells and
probably limit tstm coverage /especially with nrn extent/. farther w
across the nrn rockies...mid-level s/swlys will strengthen with
approach of the trough which could support a couple of marginal
supercells late in the day.

...northeast to midwest...
moderate mid-level wlys will persist in association with
the broad trough centered over sern canada...with pockets of
stronger flow in association with impulses departing srn quebec and
the other approaching from the upper ms valley. guidance suggests
that isolated to scattered tstms will form along a weak cold front
and perhaps along a trough in the lee of the appalachians.
however...guidance does differ substantially with the degree of
buoyancy along the front...with the nam appearing to be more
unstable with greater insolation. although mid-level lapse rates
should be fair to poor...the most favorable wind profiles for
supercells will exist across the northeast. portions of this region
may require an upgrade to slight risk if it appears that moderate
buoyancy may indeed develop.

..grams.. 06/17/2013

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