Toledo weather - may 4, 2015

"... if there's a chance we can get it in, I'd like to try and do that."

That's what I would do, but you didn't hear that from me.

At 2:30 p.m., some light rain still existed in the Toledo area. Behind that rain, the radar was clear.

According to the cloud cover satellite image, we might see some sunshine this afternoon.

The NWS, however, still predicts showers and thunderstorms could develop late this afternoon and early this evening.

Toledo Forecast - Last Update: May 4, 2015 1:46 pm

This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 77. West wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Before the rain moved through late this morning, our temps were in the mid to upper 70s, and it got pretty windy for a while. Then after the rain, our temps dropped into the low 60s, and the wind died down. Now we're in the mid 60s. Our dew points are in the upper 50s.

https://twitter.com/Ryan_Wichman - WTOL Meteorologist - tweets earlier today:

# - Threat for strongest thunderstorms has shifted south of Toledo this afternoon.

# - Don't think we will see any severe weather locally today. Not enough ingredients in place.

Three regional National Weather Service offices cover the Toledo area. Early this afternoon, each NWS office either issued a new area forecast discussion, or they updated one from this morning.

The Cleveland NWS provided zero details about the rest of this afternoon. Obviously, useless.

I have no idea what N. Indiana office said.

split in llj with nrn extension to track well nw-n of region erly this am in conjunction with potent mcv /presently south of oshkosh movg enewd/ conts to force parcel ascent into wcntl mi into slightly hir 0-3km lapse rates...with incrsd stability swd into cwa. bowing segment acrs nrn il also incrsgly cold pool dominant with substantial warming/constriction of tops per ir imagery portends to only debris clouds/am shra acrs nwrn half of cwa. thereafter...sfc boundary and llvl mflux convergence lies out e-w through cwa into aftn though muted/muddled destabilization appears to be the norm. nam progged mucapes into 2000-3000 j/kg range upstream acrs nern il into ern ia this aftn coincident with convergent 1000-900mb signal along with shortwave assocd with better developed erly am convection acrs nwrn mo/swrn ia/far sern ne to one of the more probable of several tsra development regions in srn grtlks this aftn. am outflow and weak frontal boundary focus accentuated south of marine lyr environment among other possibilities. modest instability amid poor deep layer shear with ern extent into cwa on order of 20 kts and continual building of midlvl heights to impede vigorous parcel ascent/severe potnl. maintained relatively high pops overnight with sfc boundary lingering through e-w in srn third cwa along with addnl upstream shortwave acrs wrn ok panhandle/swrn ks to eject into southern periphery of rapid zonal grtlks flow.

I think the above said that a chance of showers and thunderstorms exist today.

The Det/Pon NWS said:

a cold front will be slowly working through southeast michigan this afternoon/early this evening. thus their remains a low chance of shower/thunderstorm activity.

planning on carrying scattered/chance pops for the afternoon hours with the lack of upper level support ... as hrrr also showing little activity.

• POP = Probability of Precipitation
• HRRR = High-Resolution Rapid Refresh - computer model

Earlier today, the Storm Prediction Center showed us in the marginal risk for severe weather, which means "limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity."

Updating images and not snapshots: