Toledo weather Sun Jun 7 2015

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
415 am edt sun jun 7 2015

lez142-143-162-163-ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-080815-
maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot-
415 am edt sun jun 7 2015

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon into the evening. the threat for severe thunderstorms
will be associated with a thunderstorm complex. right now...it is
too early to determine where exactly the complex will move through
the area. the main threat will be damaging winds.

.days two through seven...monday through saturday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.

$$

Tol
Jun 7, 2015 5:52 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 49 F
Humidity : 97%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 48 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
External Link : 3-day history

(near Lambertville)
Jun 7, 2015 5:35 am
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 52 F
Humidity : 88%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.00 in
Dewpoint: 48 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

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spc ac 070559

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1259 am cdt sun jun 07 2015

valid 071200z - 081200z

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms today into this evening across
parts of northern and central illinois...northern and central
indiana...and extreme southwest lower michigan...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms surrounding the enh risk area
across the southern great lakes and oh valley through the lower mo
valley to parts of the central and southern high plains...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms extending from the great lakes
and oh valley to the central and southern high plains...

...summary...
severe thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the lower
great lakes and ohio valley region to the central and southern high
plains...with the greatest potential across northern and central
portions of illinois and indiana...and far southwest lower michigan.

...synopsis...
a midlevel speed max will cross portions of the middle/upper ms
valley and great lakes region on the south side of a
broad/amplifying trough across the upper/middle ms valley and great
lakes region. a related surface low will advance across parts of
nrn wi and upper mi into adjacent ontario...reaching swrn quebec by
12z monday. a cold front extending sw of the surface low to the co
rockies front range will advance east and south toward lower
mi...into the midwest...lower mo valley and through the central
plains. the leading edge of the warm sector will advance nnewd
across srn and ern portions of the great lakes region...establishing
a broad corridor of rich gulf return moisture ahead of the cold
front. meanwhile...a midlevel trough will elongate ene/wsw over
parts of the great basin to central rockies...between flanking
ridges over the srn plains and nwrn states.

...srn great lakes/oh and mid ms valleys...
an ongoing mcs...possibly producing strong to severe storms...should
be moving through ern wi...far nrn il and west-central il per recent
hrrr runs/00z nam/12z ecmwf. moderate-strong instability is
expected across the warm sector...given low-level moistening
/surface dew points in the mid-upper 60s/ as far east as srn lower
mi and wrn oh and diabatic heating. the leading extent of the early
morning mcs should re-intensify it reaches swrn lower mi and nrn il
/including the chicago metro area/ by early afternoon. effective
bulk shear of 30-35 kt oriented generally parallel to the convective
outflow boundary suggests line segments/bowing structures as the
primary storm mode with damaging winds the primary threat.
however...enhanced low-level shear along modestly strong swly
low-level winds will favor a tornado threat.

the potential exists for afternoon storms to congeal into a
wsw/ene-elongated quasi-linear mcs through the early evening hours.
this activity should be largely oriented parallel to the mean
cloud-layer flow...while gradually spreading esewd/sewd into parts
of central il...central indiana...nwrn oh...sern il and parts of wrn
oh. damaging winds and marginally severe hail will remain possible
with this activity as convection regenerates/spreads into a
moist/moderately unstable air mass.

...portions of nrn/central mo wwd to ern co...
ascent supporting convection will be primarily confined to low-level
convergence processes related to the cold front and the trailing
extent of the outflow boundary attendant to the wi/nrn il mcs as it
settles swd. isolated to widely scattered tstms will likely develop
near these boundaries and wwd to diurnally enhanced orographic
circulations over the co front range and moist/upslope flow to its
e. the presence of 25-35 kt of deep shear will have the potential to
support organized/sustained convective structures/possible
supercells. in the absence of a strong equatorward surge of low
theta-e air...convection should also evolve behind the cold front in
parts of e-cntrl co into nrn ks and perhaps far srn neb where
post-frontal directional-flow variability in the low-levels will
bolster deep shear /potential for organized storms/. a
strengthening swly llj from ok into sern ks and mo may aid in
sustaining tstms through the evening into the early overnight period
across sern ks to central mo with a lingering threat for strong to
severe storms.

..peters/dean.. 06/07/2015

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z