Data counters Cavs' Coach Blatt's Game 5 Strategy Explanation

• NBA.com - Game 4
• NBA.com - Game 5

Game 4

Final Score:

• Golden State 103
• Cleveland 82

GS winning Game 4 was not entirely due to an allegedly genius coaching move by Steve Kerr to start Andre Iguodala.

Warriors coach Steve Kerr shook up his starting lineup for the first time in The Finals, inserting Andre Iguodala for Andrew Bogut. It was the first start of the season for Iguodala and he responded in a big way - he tied Stephen Curry with a team-high 22 points, hit four 3-pointers and most importantly played great defense on LeBron James. According to SportVU, Iguodala held James to 1-of-7 shooting in their 10 minutes of matchup time in Game 4.

At the start of the Game 4, LeBron looked fatigued. It wasn't his night.

James finished Game 4 with 20 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists in 41 minutes. While that is a statline most players would dream of having in The Finals, those 20 points were less than half of the 41.0 LeBron had averaged through the first three games of the series.

There were a few contribution factors to look at:

2. The Warriors were more aggressive with their help defense, sending double-teams to force the ball out of James' hands on numerous possessions. The Warriors didn't double James on every possession, but they didn't leave one defender on an island to try to cover James either. When the double-teams came, James found open teammates on the perimeter, helping him log a game-high eight assists, half of Cleveland's total for the game.

3. After playing an average of 47.4 minutes during the first three games of The Finals, how much did James have left in the tank?

Looking for evidence of James' [fatigue]? Look no further than his 5-of-10 shooting from the free throw line or his 2-of-9 shooting on uncontested shots in Game 4.

The Cavs needed help from other players. Mozgov and Thompson contributed.

If there was one bright spot for the Cavs in Game 4 it was the play of Timofey Mozgov, who dominated the smaller Golden State lineups to the tune of 28 points - the most he's scored in any NBA game (regular season or playoffs).

Mozgov shot 9-of-16 from the field and 10-12 from the free throw line; he added 10 rebounds, with six of those coming on the offensive glass.

But Game 4 could be boiled down to horrendous outside shooting by the Cavs.

... this was the worst 3-point shooting game for Cleveland, not only in this series, but in the entire playoffs. They hit just 4-of-27 3-point attempts (14.8%) with J.R. Smith missing all eight of his attempts.

Cleveland's starting backcourt (Matthew Dellavedova and Iman Shumpert) and sixth man (J.R. Smith) all struggled to shoot the ball in Game 4 as the trio combined to go 7-of-35 (20%) from the field and 3-of-22 (13.6%) from 3-point range.

Dellavedova, Shumpert and Smith combined to score just 19 points - that's one point less then Dellavedova did by himself in Game 3. The Warriors outscored the Cavs by 27 points in the 28 minutes Smith was on the court.

Cleveland Guards

• Dellavedova: 3-14 FG, 2-9 3P, 10 PTS
• Shumpert: 2-9 FG, 1-5 3P, 5 PTS
• Smith: 2-12 FG, 0-8 3P, 4 PTS
• Combined: 7-35 FG (20%), 3-22 3P (13.6%), 19 PTS

Cleveland's poor shooting was not just limited to the 3-point line, as the Cavs shot just 6-of-45 (13.3%) outside the paint in Game 4.

Conversely, GS shot pretty well from the outside.

The Warriors had their best long-range shooting game of The Finals as they connected on a dozen 3-pointers in 30 attempts. That 40% 3-point percentage is nearly 10 percentage points higher than what they produced during the the first three games of The Finals (31.3%).

I don't think that playing Mozgov caused GS to have a fine 3-point shooting night.

I don't think that playing Mozgov caused the Cavs to shoot horribly from the outside.

Playing Mozgov did not contribute to accumulated fatigue for LeBron and Dellavedova.

Despite the Cavs' wretched Game 4 shooting performance, GS only led Cle 76-70 after three quarters. Off-night for ragged LeBron, amateurish outside shooting by Cle, and fine outside shooting by GS, and yet it was only a 6-point Cavs deficit to start the final quarter.

Reasonable shooting by the Cavs, or even the outside shooing that the Cavs exhibited in Game 5 would have made Game 4 close, possibly giving the Cavs the victory.

Poor shooting cost the Cavs in Game 4. Simple math.

Game 5

Final Score:

• Cleveland 91
• Golden State 104

LeBron looked rested, and it showed on the court.

Once again, LeBron James posted a ridiculous statline in these Finals, finishing Game 5 with 40 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists in 45 minutes. He joins Jerry West as the only players in Finals history to score 40 points while recording a triple-double.

James is one of only four players - along with Wilt Chamberlain, Larry Bird and Magic Johnson - to have multiple triple-doubles in the same Finals.

While James matched Oscar Robertson's record for 30-point playoff triple-doubles with eight, he remains two shy of Magic's mark for triple-doubles in The Finals after picking up the sixth of his career in Game 5.

It's no surprise that LeBron James was at the center of Cleveland's offense. The fact that he generated 70 of the Cavs' 91 points in Game 5 with his scoring or assists is remarkable. It's a level of productivity matched by only two of the game's all-time great: Jerry West and Walt Frazier.

The MVP trophy for the finals series should go to LeBron.

But Iguodala had another decent game.

Getting his second straight start, Andre Iguodala had another big game for the Warriors, finishing with 14 points, eight rebounds, seven assits and a game-high three steals.

Iguodala shot 5-of-11 from the field and 2-of-5 from three as he knocked down many timely baskets throughout the game. On the downside, he made as many free throws (2) as he did 3-pointers despite 11 attempts.

Maybe Coach Blatt can take credit for Iguodala's poor free-throw shooting.

Some other Game 5 telling stats:

The Warriors outscored the Cavaliers 18-3 on fast break points in Game 5 with many of those baskets coming off of Cleveland turnovers. While Cleveland turned the ball over less (10 vs. 16 for Golden State), the Warriors took advantage of Cleveland's miscues at a much higher rate.

• Cavaliers: 10 turnovers, led to 20 Golden State points
• Warriors: 16 turnovers, led to 15 Cleveland points

During the first five games, I'm guessing that the Cavs have set a finals record for the most shot-clock violations and the most shots that have missed the rim. The Cavs shot several klunkers in Game 5.

During the first five games, the Cavs have also taken too many throw-up, prayer shots just before the shot-clock hits zero.

The Cavs' iso-style of offense leads too many bad choices as the shot clock nears zero. It seems that the Cavs squander way more offensive chances than GS. And with the Cavs' current lineup and poor shooting ways, the Cavs need all the good looks that it can get.

Overall, the Cavs shot better from the field in Game 5 compared to Game 4, although it would realistically be hard to play worse than Game 4.

Even with the Cavs shooting better from 3-point range in Game 5, GS equaled or surpassed the Cavs.

It was the second straight game that the Cavs only trailed by 6 points at the end of the third quarter.

Over the past three games, the Cavs have been soundly beaten in the 4th quarter.

This is why Curry was the MVP of the regular season. Big-time players close out big games in the 4th quarter.

With a six-point lead at the end of the third quarter, Stephen Curry started the fourth quarter on the bench and watched as that lead quickly evaporated and the game was tied at 75 with 9:35 to play.

The MVP's rest time was over as he returned to the game with 9:23 to play. From that point on he single-handedly outscored the Cavaliers, 17-16, to close the game -- turning a tie game turned into a 13-point win and a 3-2 series lead.

Curry shot 13-of-23 (56.5%) from the field for the game and 7-of-13 (53.8%) from 3-point range. He was even more efficient in the fourth as he shot 5-of-7 (71.4%) from the field and 3-of-5 (60%) from three.

The Cavs support players shot well in the first half but not in the second half.

After struggling mightily to make open shots in Game 4 (the pair combined to score nine points on 4-of-21 shooting in the Cavs loss), J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert came through in the first half for the Cavs.

The former Knicks combined to score 21 points on 7-of-17 shooting (6-of-14 from three) in the first half. For the Cavs to win with such a depleted lineup, their shooters have to knock down open shots when LeBron creates opportunities. With Smith and Shumpert hitting shots, the Cavs were right in the game, trailing by only one at halftime.

The second half was a different story as both players went ice cold. The duo combined to shoot just 1-of-7 from the field (1-of-6 from three), with their only points coming off of the one Shumpert make.

The Cavs do not have enough talent. GS has 6 to 8 players who can score and pick up the slack.

Blatt's bizarre coaching change:

After having a career-night in Game 4 - scoring a career-high 28 points to go with 10 rebounds - Timofey Mozgov was only on the floor for 9:19 in Game 5 as the Cavs and Warriors both employed small-ball lineups for most of the night.

At one point, LeBron was playing point-center as he was on the court with Matthew Dellavedova, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and James Jones.

When the Cavs needed a big man, they went with Tristan Thompson, who had 19 points and 10 rebounds in just under 40 minutes. Despite having a great rebounder like Thompson on the floor, the Warriors won the rebound battle 43-37 overall and 11-10 on the offensive glass.

Are we to believe that not playing Mozgov helped LeBron play a good game? And not playing Mozgov helped Shumpert and Smith shooter better in the first half?

The game was closer because LeBron scored 20 more points. The game was closer because Smith and Shumpert contributed in the first half.

Again, simple math. Make the shots.

I think Blatt fancied himself as a brilliant coach, and he wanted to prove it by not playing Mozgov.

Blatt's explained himself in the post-game press conference. Blatt said that because the Game 5 final score was closer than Game 4, then Blatt was correct to give Mozgov little playing time.

Cuckoo time for Blatt. Game 5 was closer because the Cavs shot better from the field. 20 more points for LeBron.

Apparently, Blatt is numerically challenged.

In Game 4, GS scored 103 points.

In Game 5, GS scored 104 points.

So how did not playing Mozgov help Cle?

Not playing a guy in Game 5 who scored 28 points in Game 4 helped Cle score 9 more points??

LeBron scored 20 more points.

Unfortunately, the Cavs did not have the supporting cast to keep hitting outside shots in the second half. Yet the Cavs were only down 6 points to start the 4th quarter.

With decent or even average shooting, the Cavs may have ended the series last night.

In the post-game press conference, LeBron told everyone that he was the best player in the world as if anyone doubted that was the case.

The problem is, the best player in the world is not enough to defeat the best team in the world in a 7-game series.

Game 6

For the Cavs to enter the 4th quarter close to GS like the last two games, LeBron will need another 40-point game and maybe a 50-point game. And someone else for the Cavs will need to play well in the 4th qtr. Somebody for the Cavs will need to make some big 4th qtr shots.

Smith, Shumpert, Dell, and/or Jones will need consistently good shooting by one or two players at different times throughout the game. If Smith has a good first half, then someone else will need play well in the second half.

GS shot poorly in Game 2, and yet that game went to overtime, eventually won by Cle.

The Cavs shot poorly in Game 4, and the Cavs lost by 21.

The Cavs played their best game of the series in Game 3. The Cavs led by 17 at the end of the third qtr. But that game was in doubt with under a minute to go as GS stormed back. At the time, I didn't think that the Cavs could play any better, and yet it wound up being close late.

It would be much different if K Love and/or K Irving were playing for Cle.

Box Scores

Game 3
         1       2       3       4       T
GS      20      17      18      36      91
CLE     24      20      28      24      96


Game 4
         1       2       3       4        T
GS      31      23      22      27      103
CLE     24      18      28      12       82


Game 5
         1       2       3       4        T
CLE     22      28      17      24       91
GS      22      29      22      31      104

4th qtr in the past 3 games:

• GS 36 + 27 + 3