Tt post jan 4 2016 - b

"All right. You got me. I exaggerated too much. My appologies."

No problem. I assumed that you were still amped up over the Bills defeating the Jets yesterday.

"Toledo still does not and will never see a lake effect snow storm like Buffalo does."

Yep. Nobody disagrees. And I would guess that 99.9% of Toledo area residents are delighted about that fact.

"Toledo is at the wrong end of the lake."

Again, nobody disagrees. I'm unsure of who you are trying convince.

If I understand geography, geology, and the earth's rotation, this area has been located at the "wrong end" of the lake for major lake effect snow events for a while now.

"I've driven in both Buffalo lake effect and Toledo "lake effect" and they are not even close."

I don't ever want to meet the crazy person who would say that the two events were similar.

"I think it is more of a disservice to the public to use a term that stirs up images of an intense snow storm to describe what Toledo sees as far as lake effect snow. That's something I would expect from Bill Spencer, not you guys."

Um, today's snowfall is/was lake effect snow. That's a scientific fact that cannot be disputed.

Are you a lake effect snow denier?

Toledo's forecast did not predict a major accumulation today. Nobody was freaking out. Some areas of southeast Michigan, however, did receive longer periods of lake effect snow from Lake Huron. And if radar was accurate, some parts of Fulton County may have received more snow today than Lucas County.

Our lake effect snow is similar to scattered showers in the summertime. The frequency, duration, and accumulation can vary over short distances.

The definition of "lake effect snow" does not require a minimum accumulation in order to receive that term. It's cold air moving over the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes. Other dynamics determine the severity of such events.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake-effect_snow

Lake-effect snow is produced during cooler atmospheric conditions when a cold air mass moves across long expanses of warmer lake water, warming the lower layer of air which picks up water vapor from the lake, rises up through the colder air above, freezes and is deposited on the leeward (downwind) shores.

People who have lived in this area long enough and are weather-wise know that such events are short-lived. The snow can be intense but for only a brief time. The snow squalls occur off and on throughout the period. And such snow squalls can greatly reduce the visibility at least temporarily.

Not warning motorists about the lake effect snow squalls would be a disservice.

And nobody would think that we would receive 1 to 2 feet of snow from a straggler Lake Michigan/Huron lake effect snow squall.

From this afternoon's Area Forecast Discussion, issued by the Detroit/Pontiac National Weather Service:

a remarkable lake effect snow event for southeastern michigan transpired today with a deep midlevel trough and aggressive surface anticyclone interacting to develop northeast flow over the central great lakes.

there were multiple reports near and east of the city of saginaw that checked in with estimated snowfall totals of 8 to 9 inches in a 5 hour window.

the duration was longer in the eastern thumb... but some areas in southeastern sanilac county and northeastern st clair county experienced snowfall totals in the 5 to 9 inch range.

More technical info about today's southeast Michigan snow event from the same discussion:

the bulk lake effect parameters were high...equilibrium heights upwards of 10 kft agl early this morning with 850-sfc delta t/s of -19 c. most interesting was the modeled thermodynamic environment in the low stability/sub inversion layer...as the atmosphere was highly supersaturated with respect to ice. turned out to be an extremely efficient dendrite producer with snow ratios likely of or in excess of 30:1.

the difficulty in the forecast for the bay and saginaw county lake effect band was the dependence of the forcing on near surface effects. the narrow lake effect band organized directly along the southern shoreline of saginaw bay where a limiting streamline was able to lock in place.

hi-resolution datasets hinted at the placement of the band...but struggled mightily on the intensity and longevity of the band potential. for the eastern thumb shoreline areas...a mesovortex within the center of the midlevel trough axis was able to crash onshore and augment the greatest convergence near the sanilac/st clair county line...which verified within the envelope of the larger scale forcing.

tonight... aggressive and very dense surface anticyclone is forecasted to drop south from its current placement of the northern lake huron basin....to portions of southwestern ontario by 6z this evening. models show a strengthening inversion now...and rapidly crashing inversion heights over the next 3 hours or so.

regional radar mosaic supports this trend with much less organization to the lake effect bands. will allow the winter weather headlines to expire at the 4 pm issuance. will watch for some potential for continued more shallow lake effect bands to impact the shorelines areas of the southern lake huron basin as easterly surface flow will hold on early.

however...additional snowfall accumulation potential will remain low with lowering convective depths and a much more limited fetch off of lake huron. an additional inch or two will be possible over the eastern thumb...while an additional inch could be possible yet in some localized areas downwind of saginaw bay.