• 1:08 p.m.
• TOL
• Radar loop ENDING at 1:00 p.m.
• Short Term Forecast
• Forecast
• AFD
• HWO

Toledo Weather - Thu, Mar 24, 2016

created at 1:05 p.m. - updated at 1:08 p.m. Mild, very rainy day. The SPC lists our area has having a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. The only snow that has fallen this month occurred back on the first couple days of March. At 1:00 p.m., moderate to heavy rain fell over the Toledo area.

1:08 p.m.

Brief period of very heavy rain fell.

TOL

Mar 24, 2016 12:52 pm
Weather : Heavy Rain Fog/Mist
Temperature : 55 F
Humidity : 96%
Wind Speed : WSW 5 mph
Barometer : 29.58 in
Dewpoint: 54 F
Visibility : 1.25 statute miles

Radar loop ENDING at 1:00 p.m.

Short Term Forecast

short term forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
1244 pm edt thu mar 24 2016

ohz003-006>008-017-018-241745-
ottawa-hancock-lucas-wood-sandusky-seneca-
1244 pm edt thu mar 24 2016

.now...

at 1240 pm edt...doppler radar indicated showers over northwest ohio.
the heaviest showers were along and west of a toledo to findlay line. the showers
can produce rainfall from a quarter to a half an inch through 2pm. the winds will
be gusting at times between 35 and 40 mph around the findlay area.

Forecast

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Mar 24, 2016 12:06 pm

This Afternoon: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 64. Breezy, with a south wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Low around 35. Southwest wind 14 to 16 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 29. Light and variable wind.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Sunday: A chance of rain after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night: Rain likely, mainly after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday: Rain likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 51.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

AFD

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
911 am edt thu mar 24 2016

synopsis...
low pressure over western illinois will move northeast across lower
michigan this evening and continue off to the northeast tonight
pulling a cold front across the area. high pressure from the
mississippi valley will shift to he great lakes for friday and
saturday. on sunday the area will remain ahead of a cold front that
is expected to cross early monday morning.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/... a low that will track ne
across lower mi this evening will put the area in the warm sector
today. this will lead to a warm and somewhat unstable day. a
trailing cold front approaching from the west will cause numerous
shra and some tsra to develop from west to east the rest of the day.
a low level jet feeding into the cwa and a well mixed airmass could
produce wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph in the sw so a wind advisory is
in effect for that area. reasonable wind shear will be present so
there is a marginal risk for an isolated severe storm or two.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through sunday night/...
have thunderstorms mentioned for a few hours this evening...but
that wanes as bulk of support for thunder exits and/or is fighting
nightfall with limited instability in the first place. again some
of the storms may be a bit on the gusty side at first.

biggest change for tonight was to lower temperatures slower with
the front tonight. the better push of cold air does not arrive
until morning. light lingering showers possible through a large
portion of the night as we await the passage of the upper trough
axis. at this point some of the deeper moisture exits. between
losing this mid level moisture and keeping temps a bit warmer have
greatly reduced the mention of snow showers that had been in the
forecast. limited the mention of a rain/snow mix to ne oh/nw pa
for early friday morning.

high pressure builds in overhead for friday afternoon and
saturday. with its position north of the region...northerly flow
will result. cooler temperatures can be expected near lake erie
both days. it will be most pronounced saturday as southern areas
begin to feel the effects of warm air advection. after 40s for
highs on friday...saturday's highs will reach into the mid/upper
50s inland.

next series of shortwaves drop southeast out of the pacific
northwest/nrn rockies saturday and work to develop and bring a
cold front to the area early next week. have slowed the
advancement of this front...following closer to the ecmwf which
already bringing the surface low out of the southern plains/tx
panhandle and toward the mid mississippi and lower ohio valley.
this will delay the arrival of the colder air...precip...and
cloud cover. bring in the bulk of the rain showers for sunday
night. temperatures will be dependent upon the track of the low.

&&

long term /monday through wednesday/...
models in better agreement today with a storm system tracking near
the ohio river valley on monday. since there is more confidence we
have increased rain chances for monday. cooler air arrives as the
precipitation decreases monday night. this may end up producing a
brief period of light snow across ne oh and nw pa. ridging at the
surface and aloft is progged to occur tuesday into wednesday with
dry conditions anticipated.

seasonal temperatures monday into tuesday then warmer on wednesday.
highs wednesday should return to the middle and upper 50s.

&&

aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
frontal boundary located near the south shore of lake erie as of
1130z. locations north of this boundary were seeing patchy ifr
conditions while everywhere else vfr conditions prevailed.
all locations expected to be vfr unless a passing shower can
lower visibilities into the afternoon. as a cold front approaches
this afternoon chances for showers/thunderstorms will increase
from west to east. expect to see mvfr conditions with the showers
but there is potential for a 2 to 3 hour window of ifr near any of
the thunderstorms.

gusty winds are expected ahead of the front with locations near
and south of a line from kfdy to kmfd possibly reaching 45 knots.
elsewhere the southerly wind will be breezy with gusts 30 to 35
knots.

outlook...widespread non vfr thursday night...lingering across ne
oh/nw pa into friday.

&&

marine...
warm front located near the south shore of lake erie will lift
northward across the lake this morning but it may hang up across
the eastern third of the lake. as the front passes winds will
shift to a southerly direction and increase. winds
speeds...especially across the western half of the lake should
increase to the 15 to 20 knot range. since this is an offshore
flow we have not issued a small craft advisory. low pressure is
expected to track across southern ontario this evening into the
overnight hours with a cold front crossing the lake from west to
east. west to northwest winds will increase in the wake of the
front with 15 to 25 knots expected. the longer fetch and the
stronger winds will build waves to at least 3 to 5 feet. have gone
ahead and issued a small craft advisory for late thursday night
into friday. winds decrease by friday evening as high pressure
builds across the lake. winds should be light through saturday
night. the next storm system will begin to impact the lake by
sunday with increasing northeast to east winds.

HWO

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
510 am edt thu mar 24 2016

ohz003-006>013-020>022-031-032-038-250915-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
medina-summit-portage-wayne-stark-holmes-
510 am edt thu mar 24 2016

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

winds will gust to 40 mph at times out of the south today. wind
gusts with thunderstorms this afternoon and evening have the
potential to exceed 50 mph.

.days two through seven...friday through wednesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

#rain