Toledo weather - sat, june 11, 2016

spc ac 111249

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0749 am cdt sat jun 11 2016

valid 111300z - 121200z

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms over parts of eastern mt and
western nd...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over parts of the northern
great plains...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across portions of mt/nd...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from parts of the great basin
across the northern rockies...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from the mid/upper ms valley
into southern new england...

...summary...
scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds...potentially
very large hail...and perhaps one or two tornadoes are forecast to
affect portions of eastern montana and western north dakota this
afternoon through tonight. isolated to widely scattered severe
thunderstorms are anticipated from portions of new england to the
mid-atlantic westward to iowa.

...new england into pa/nj...
water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough moving across eastern
ontario...with an associated cluster of showers and thunderstorms
affecting central ny. this activity will track eastward early today
into southern new england...helping to maintain clouds and a
relatively cool/dry environment. however south of these storms...a
favorable thermodynamic setup is expected to develop by mid-late
afternoon as dewpoints rise into the 50s and daytime heating
contributes to moderate cape vales. it appears likely that clusters
of strong tstms will develop over parts of southern ny and northern
pa...spreading southeastward through the slight risk area during the
late afternoon and early evening. hail and damaging winds are the
main threats with these storms...although an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out.

...midwest states...
morning satellite and radar loops show a cluster of thunderstorms
ongoing over parts of ia. this activity is expected to weaken
dramatically by early afternoon...allowing strong
heating/destabilization to occur along a surface boundary. the
result will be isolated thunderstorm development from ia into parts
of northern il/ind. this area is beneath upper ridge axis and
forecast soundings show weak deep layer shear. a few slow-moving
severe storms capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds are
possible...but overall risk appears marginal.

...northern high plains...
a shortwave trough currently over ut/az is forecast to track
northward into the northern high plains by tonight. the result will
likely be another cluster of severe storms over parts of eastern mt
and western nd this afternoon/evening. storms will initiate as
large scale forcing impinges on better low level moisture along the
bighorns...and track quickly northward into eastern mt. forecast
soundings show strong mid/upper level winds favorable for
fast-moving storms capable of damaging wind gusts and very large
hail. this threat will likely persist much of the evening and
spread north-northeastward across western nd.

..hart/leitman.. 06/11/2016

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z

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hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
1039 am edt sat jun 11 2016

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

there will be a chance of thunderstorms across the area on
this afternoon and evening. if thunderstorms do develop...there
is the potential for strong to severe storms capable of producing
winds gusts up to 60 mph or large hail.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.

---

TOL: Jun 11, 2016 10:52 am
Weather : Fair and Breezy
Temperature : 87 F
Humidity : 46%
Wind Speed : W 23 mph - Gust 28 mph
Barometer : 29.95 in
Dewpoint: 64 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 88 F

---

JustaSooner will be able to provide details about timing of any thunderstorms.

Outdoors this afternoon, the heat and humidity could be a bigger annoyance than rain. I'd have to check the stats, but this could end up being the warmest day in three or four years. Factor in the humidity, and it will feel a bit rugged.

Toledo forecast - Last Update: Jun 11, 2016 6:11 am

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. West wind 15 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Excerpts from the 8:01 a.m. Area Forecast Discussion:

fairly difficult forecast to put together for saturday.

the warm front that moved through the area on friday has ushered in a warm, moist, muggy air mass. temperatures at 4am this morning remain in the mid to upper 70s and dew points are in the mid 60s, more characteristic of coastal carolina or the gulf coast and not northern ohio/northwest pennsylvania.

daytime heating will allow for temperatures to soar into the low to mid 90s for most areas, as cloud cover will not be an issue. temperatures could approach record highs as all records sit in the 90s.

TOL's record high temp for June 11 is 97 degrees, set in 1933. That record should be safe today.

Longer excerpt from the Area Forecast Discussion about the chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and/or late tonight. It seems that the better chances for storms exist to our east and west.

went with a slight chance pop in the early afternoon, increasing to a chance pop later in the day. spc has our area outlined in a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail, except for trumbull and mahoning counties that are in a slight risk for the same severe threat. but, saturday feels like a "boom or bust" day depending on whether the cap can be broken.

the forecasting concerns for the day are the precipitation chances and severe weather threat. the air mass in place is certainly ripe for thunderstorm development and severe storms at that. forecast soundings across the cwa show afternoon cape values of 2000-3000 j/kg, dcape values of 1000-1500 j/kg, surface to 3km lapse rates greater than 8c/km, dry air aloft, and 0-6km bulk shear values greater than 20 knots, which are all indicative of severe thunderstorms with a damaging wind and hail threat. however...there are major concerns with a forcing mechanism to initiate thunderstorms with a large cap in place in the low levels, which would prohibit the development of any convection at all.

for more diurnally driven storms to develop in this air mass, there is a need for more moisture in the low levels, even in such a muggy environment. winds look to stay breezy in the 15 to 20 knot range from the west and could keep things well mixed, preventing dew points from getting any higher than the mid to upper 60s. however, if the area can see temperature/dew point spreads of say 90/72 on saturday, diurnally driven convection may occur in this environment.

the other option would be some sort of boundary to initiate convection. a cold front will eventually make its way across the area late saturday into the early part of sunday and will likely bring some sort of area of elevated showers and storms as the area dries out and cools off behind the front. however, could the remnant outflow from friday's mcs or a pre- frontal trough move through the area and provide enough lift to get convection to form saturday afternoon/evening? it's certainly possible, but not probable. more typical/certain sources of lift seem to be off to our east with favorable jet dynamics or west with the more hearty boundary left behind from friday's mcs.

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
521 am edt sat jun 11 2016

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

there will be a chance of thunderstorms across the area on
this afternoon and evening. if thunderstorms do develop...there
is the potential for strong to severe storms capable of producing
winds gusts up to 60 mph or large hail.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.

---

Sunny morning.

TOL:
Jun 11, 2016 7:52 am
Weather : Fair and Breezy
Temperature : 77 F
Humidity : 64%
Wind Speed : WSW 21 mph
Barometer : 29.93 in
Dewpoint: 64 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
801 am edt sat jun 11 2016

synopsis...
northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania will be hot and humid for
saturday ahead of a cold front that will move south across the
area on saturday night. high pressure will build in behind the
cold front for sunday and monday. a trough of low pressure will
then attempt to move into the area late on monday into tuesday.

&&

near term /through tonight/...
no major changes with this update...just updated the first couple
hours of the forecast to current trends with temps, dew points,
clouds, and precipitation based on radar.

original near term discussion...
fairly difficult forecast to put together for saturday. the warm
front that moved through the area on friday has ushered in a warm,
moist, muggy air mass. temperatures at 4am this morning remain in
the mid to upper 70s and dew points are in the mid 60s, more
characteristic of coastal carolina or the gulf coast and not
northern ohio/northwest pennsylvania. as the mcs that rolled
through wisconsin and michigan late on friday moves to our
northeast into canada and new york, the weather should start
fairly dry for the area on saturday. the only exception could be
far ne oh/nw pa, where some convective debris from this mcs could
leave behind a shower or two and some cloud cover. elsewhere,
daytime heating will allow for temperatures to soar into the low
to mid 90s for most areas, as cloud cover will not be an issue.
temperatures could approach record highs as all records sit in the
90s.

the forecasting concerns for the day are the precipitation
chances and severe weather threat. the air mass in place is
certainly ripe for thunderstorm development and severe storms at
that. forecast soundings across the cwa show afternoon cape values
of 2000-3000 j/kg, dcape values of 1000-1500 j/kg, surface to 3km
lapse rates greater than 8c/km, dry air aloft, and 0-6km bulk
shear values greater than 20 knots, which are all indicative of
severe thunderstorms with a damaging wind and hail threat.
however...there are major concerns with a forcing mechanism to
initiate thunderstorms with a large cap in place in the low
levels, which would prohibit the development of any convection at
all.

for more diurnally driven storms to develop in this air mass,
there is a need for more moisture in the low levels, even in such
a muggy environment. winds look to stay breezy in the 15 to 20
knot range from the west and could keep things well mixed,
preventing dew points from getting any higher than the mid to
upper 60s. however, if the area can see temperature/dew point
spreads of say 90/72 on saturday, diurnally driven convection may
occur in this environment. the other option would be some sort of
boundary to initiate convection. a cold front will eventually make
its way across the area late saturday into the early part of
sunday and will likely bring some sort of area of elevated showers
and storms as the area dries out and cools off behind the front.
however, could the remnant outflow from friday's mcs or a pre-
frontal trough move through the area and provide enough lift to
get convection to form saturday afternoon/evening? it's certainly
possible, but not probable. more typical/certain sources of lift
seem to be off to our east with favorable jet dynamics or west
with the more hearty boundary left behind from friday's mcs.

given all of the above... went with a slight chance pop in the
early afternoon, increasing to a chance pop later in the day. spc
has our area outlined in a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts
and severe hail, except for trumbull and mahoning counties that
are in a slight risk for the same severe threat. but, saturday
feels like a "boom or bust" day depending on whether the cap can
be broken.

&&

short term /sunday through monday night/...
the weather across northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania looks
to be quiet on sunday as high pressure builds in behind the cold
front. ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface should
squash any precipitation chances. however, northerly flow will
allow for cooler air to settle in and temperatures could be a
couple degrees below climatology for mid-june with only low to mid
70s for highs on sunday. for sunday night, northerly flow
continues and relatively clear skies may allow for temperatures to
really drop into the low 50s and even upper 40s in northwest
pennsylvania, which would be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

high pressure still looks to be in place for monday, which will
continue to keep things relatively quiet. winds will shift around
to the west/southwest in the low levels, allowing for
temperatures to return to average, but northwest flow remains
aloft on the back side of a large trough. models are hinting at a
piece of energy to ripple through the trough aloft and a trough of
low pressure to move in late on monday, so brought in a chance of
precipitation for monday night.

&&

long term /tuesday through friday/...
high pressure will set up north of the lake through mid-week with
northwesterly flow aloft. enough moisture will remain across our
southern counties to keep a low pop going through wednesday. an area
of low pressure will move from the plains towards the upper midwest
on wednesday then slide southeast towards the ohio valley on
thursday. chances of showers and thunderstorms will expand northward
on thursday as a warm front tries to lift north to central ohio.
temperatures will be near seasonal norms, except in the northeast
near lake erie where the flow off the lake will keep conditions
slightly below normal.

&&

aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
timing and potential for thunderstorms will be the challenge for the
afternoon and evening hours. model soundings depict a capping
inversion which is expected to limit the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. lingering outflow boundaries from convection
overnight may lead to some convective development this afternoon
but it will be hard to determine when or where this will occur. left
a vcts in the southern terminals where it seems there might be a
slightly better chances of eroding the cap...followed by a vcts at
cle/eri this evening as the front arrives from the north. any
thunderstorms that develop today could produce gusty winds to 40+
knots and brief heavy rainfall.

west southwest winds will be breezy this afternoon with most
locations gusting to 20-25 knots. a cold front will move south
across the area tonight with a wind shift to the north between 04-
08z.

outlook...non vfr possible in the west tues and wed in scattered
thunderstorms.

&&

marine...
southwesterly winds will increase to 15-20 knots on lake erie this
morning as a trough associated with a warm front passes north of the
lake. the increased flow will lead to waves building to 2 to 5 feet
on the east end of the lake today. given the flow will be parallel
to the shoreline and the stronger winds will only last a few hours
have decided to hold off on a small craft advisory. however
conditions will be choppy on the east end of the lake with a
moderate risk of rip currents.

a cold front will move south across the lake tonight with winds
shifting to the north and waves in the nearshore waters building to
2 to 4 feet late tonight into sunday. high pressure will build over
the central great lakes on monday then set up north of the lakes
through mid-week. this will lead to a prolonged period of northeast
to easterly flow. winds are generally expected to be 15 knots or
less with waves peaking in the 2 to 4 foot range on as a warm front
approaches from the south by thursday.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...sefcovic
near term...sefcovic
short term...sefcovic
long term...kec
aviation...kec
marine...kec

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jun 11, 2016 6:11 am

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. West wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 77. North wind 9 to 13 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53. North wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. South wind 3 to 7 mph.

Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.