Toledo weather - tue jun 21 2016

fxus63 kiwx 212328
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
728 pm edt tue jun 21 2016

synopsis...
issued at 125 pm edt tue jun 21 2016

fair weather is expected through tonight. a warm front will
return northward on wednesday as low pressure moves toward the
area. this will result in a renewed threat of showers and
thunderstorms...and a greater threat of widespread severe weather
late wednesday afternoon and night. in addition, there is a
potential of some heavy rainfall wednesday night. low temperatures
tonight will drop from the mid 50s to lower 60s. high temperatures
on wednesday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 343 pm edt tue jun 21 2016

potent ridge runner cresting rockies ridge acrs mt attm of which
will rapidly eject into the wrn grtlks wed night. ahd of this
ftr...stalled fntl zone stretching fm ne ks ewd through sw oh will
begin to lift back north lt tonight inadv of this ftr. 12z tight
consensus holds back precip dvlpmnt lt tonight acrs swrn zones and
in light of decaying upstream convn acrs mo will cut/contract pops
further through 12z wed. otrws btr wmfntl push ewd of sfc cyclone
shifting out the plains looks delayed til wed evening sw
and northeast of there overnight. hwvr proximity of substantial
ll waa wing and vry unstable theta-e plume holding w/low end
likely pops mid morning and tapering thereafter. combo of cld cvr
and rain will curtail more appreciable warming and stayed close
to prior temp grids.

&&

long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 343 pm edt tue jun 21 2016

sharp wmfntl bndry will focus stg-svr convection wed evening esp
wrn areas in the evening where best overlap of potential
instability/shear parameter space exits. sig wind damage and
tornado risk appears most present invof of highway 30 south acrs
in where composite outflw fm morning storms likely to lay out and
interact w/apchg upscale conv line shifting out of il wed evening.

aft that rockies ridge expands/shifts east in response to deep nrn
stream sw trough that wraps up ewd through srn canada by lt weekend.
given hgt rises aloft...no discernible forcing and warm air aloft
will scrap all pop mention through sat night if not further as this
ftr slows w/ewd extent. nr seasonal temps through the pd.

&&

aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z wednesday evening)
issued at 724 pm edt tue jun 21 2016

(for the 18z tafs through 18z wednesday afternoon)
issued at 124 pm edt tue jun 21 2016

vfr and quiet conditions overnight. this will change wednesday
with two waves of possible thunderstorms expected. first wave will
be from mid morning into afternoon as convective complex expected
to develop upstream overnight and move east into the region after
daybreak. with uncertainty in overnight development and state of
convection tomorrow kept tafs in vfr category with vcts. more
intense tsra with severe potential expected from the evening to
overnight hours wednesday night...just beyond this valid period.
however...severe storms...very strong damaging winds...hail and
tornadoes possible so attention and planning should begin with
monitoring of future forecasts for details.

&&

iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...none.
&&

$$

synopsis...marsili
short term...t
long term...t
aviation...lashley

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---

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jun 21, 2016 9:20 pm

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph.

Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 81. Light west wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10pm. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Low around 68. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8am. Some storms could be severe, with heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. North wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. North wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 87.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

---

http://toledoweather.info/nind-forecast-discussion.html

---

Still moderate and enhanced risks for the toledo area.

spc ac 211734

day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1234 pm cdt tue jun 21 2016

valid 221200z - 231200z

...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms srn wi...nrn il...nrn ind...srn
lwr mi...and nwrn oh...

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms surrounding the mdt risk from
far wrn ia to nw oh...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms surrounding the enh risk from
the upper ms valley sewd into the oh valley...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms surrounding the slgt risk from
the upper ms valley sewd into the tn/oh valleys...

...summary...
widespread damaging winds...a few tornadoes and large hail are
expected across northern illinois...southern wisconsin...northern
indiana and southwest lower michigan during the late afternoon and
evening on wednesday. a substantial severe wind threat should also
persist wednesday night across the remainder of southern lower
michigan and into western ohio.

...synopsis...
synoptic-scale features that are expected to strongly influence the
forecast tomorrow are well-defined already today with recent surface
analysis showing a deepening low over se mt...latest upper air
analysis revealing a belt of strong wly/nwly flow across much of the
nrn third of the conus...and recent water vapor satellite imagery
depicting a well-defined...compact shortwave trough moving into the
nrn rockies. this shortwave trough will continue ewd throughout the
day and overnight...reaching the nrn plains by 12z wednesday. the
shortwave will then crest the upper ridge covering much of the srn
third of conus...turning slightly sewd and progressing across the
upper great lakes tomorrow night. se mt surface low will deepen
throughout the day today...before ejecting tonight and tracking sewd
along a strengthening warm front. by 12z wednesday...this surface
low will likely be centered over the mid mo valley with ongoing
tstms persisting with in the waa regime along and n of the warm
front /from srn mn sewd through cntrl il/. surface low will then
continue ewd across ia while the elevated tstms activity and cloud
cover act to reinforce the warm front. surface-based initiation
appears likely during the mid to late afternoon across far ern
ia...nrn il and srn wi with quick upscale growth into a strong mcs
probable /discussed in more detail below/.

...srn mn sewd through cntrl il from early morning into the
afternoon...
tstms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from srn
mn sewd through cntrl il within the waa regime across the region.
strong nwly flow aloft will provide ample shear for updraft
rotation. however...this region will be on the edge of the better
mid-level lapse rates...limiting instability. even with this limited
instability...the strength of the forcing for ascent and strong
vertical shear will likely result in tstms capable of large hail.
these storms are expected to gradually weaken throughout morning as
they become displaced from better instability.

...upper ms valley ewd across the srn great lakes and oh valley from
mid to late afternoon through the overnight hours...
airmass to the south of the warm front /mentioned in the synopsis/
will quickly warm up with temperatures expected to reach the 90s by
the early afternoon. low-level swly winds will help advect moisture
into the region with this warm and moist environment supporting
strong instability by the mid-afternoon. warm temperatures aloft
will be also be advected into the region with associated capping
likely preventing convective-initiation until the late afternoon.
diurnal heating coupled with increased forcing for ascent associated
with the approaching shortwave trough /and attendant surface low/
are expected to overcome this convective-inhibition by late
afternoon...with explosive tstm development likely once this occurs.
most likely location for initial development will be near the triple
point. vertical wind profiles will be very supportive of updraft
rotation with all severe hazards possible. greatest tornado threat
will be in the vicinity of the warm front where backed surface winds
are possible.

this initial development is expected to quickly grow upscale with
the strong unidirectional flow supportive of a severe mcs capable of
a large area of damaging wind gusts. current guidance suggests the
corridor most likely to see these damaging wind gusts will be from
srn wi/nrn il sewd across nrn ind...srn lower mi...and nw oh. some
trimming of the ne extent of the mdt risk area from the previous
outlook was done to account for anticipated sely mcs motion
suggested by the most recent guidance.

..mosier.. 06/21/2016

click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product

note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z

---

Yesterday at Noon it was around 90 degrees. Cooler and less humid today.

Tol:

Jun 21, 2016 11:52 am
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 78 F
Humidity : 42%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 29.94 in
Dewpoint: 53 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
External Link : 3-day history

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
447 am edt tue jun 21 2016

for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

thunderstorms that are forecast to move across the area wednesday
night have the potential to be strong to severe. damaging wind and
heavy downpours are the primary threats at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed wednesday evening and wednesday
night.

$$

---

The day 2 spc convective outlook for tomorrow showed half the toledo area under a moderate risk. The other half under enhanced.

spc ac 210600

day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0100 am cdt tue jun 21 2016

valid 221200z - 231200z

...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms across nrn il...srn wi...nrn
indiana...srn lower mi...and nwrn oh...

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms from ern ia into wrn oh...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from sern mn/ern ia into wrn pa
and wv...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from the upper ms valley sewd
across the srn great lakes and oh valley...

...summary...
widespread damaging winds...a few tornadoes and large hail are
expected across northern illinois...southern wisconsin...northern
indiana and southwest lower michigan during the late afternoon and
evening on wednesday. a substantial severe wind threat should also
persist wednesday night across the remainder of southern lower
michigan and into western ohio.

...synopsis...
low pressure will move from ern neb across ia during the day with a
warm front lifting nwd across wi and into lower mi. substantial
low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s f
will be present behind the warm front leading to a very unstable air
mass. a swly low-level jet will be in place wed morning and will
intensify late in the day in response to an approaching
low-amplitude shortwave trough across the upper ms valley by 00z. an
expansive area of strong wind fields will support
long-lived...fast-moving severe storms across the entire risk area
beginning late afternoon wed across srn wi/nrn il and persisting
into thu morning toward the oh river.

...srn mn...ern ia...nrn il and srn wi // morning through midday...
a large area of thunderstorms will be ongoing wed morning roughly
from sern mn/ern ia across il and into srn indiana in association
with strong warm advection with the swly 850 mb jet. wind profiles
at this time will already be favorable for severe storms...with hail
the main threat. these storms are not expected to pose any
significant wind or tornado threat...and will likely weaken by
midday as the warm front lifts newd.

...upper ms valley sewd across the srn great lakes and oh valley //
late afternoon into the overnight hours...
a more substantial severe threat will develop late wed afternoon in
the wake of the earlier activity...after the atmosphere has had time
to heat and further destabilize. models are in good agreement
showing the surface low over nern ia between 21-00z...and this is
the most likely area for initiation or perhaps just e into wi/il. a
capping inversion will exist around 700 mb...but forcing for ascent
should breach it resulting in explosive development of supercells.
very large hail....tornadoes and damaging winds appear likely as
these cells move across srn wi and nrn il and possibly into cntrl
il. the tornado threat should be maximized near the sfc low...which
will track near the warm front where low-level shear/turning with
height will be greatest. other more isolated cells may extend swd
into cntrl il.

by evening...a rapid upscale-growth into a severe mcs is
anticipated...with the potential for widespread and significant
damaging winds. forecast wind fields just off the surface from
nam/gfs show in excess of 50 kts...and a intense convective feedback
signal with the wind fields overall suggesting an organized system.
as such...this potential system could extend farther e than
currently forecast despite lower levels of instability.

the primary threat corridor will likely be shifted a bit in later
outlooks as precise location of low track and warm front are better
forecast.

..jewell.. 06/21/2016

click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product

note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z