Toledo weather - tue jun 21 2016

The day 2 spc convective outlook for tomorrow showed half the toledo area under a moderate risk. The other half under enhanced.

spc ac 210600

day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0100 am cdt tue jun 21 2016

valid 221200z - 231200z

...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms across nrn il...srn wi...nrn
indiana...srn lower mi...and nwrn oh...

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms from ern ia into wrn oh...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from sern mn/ern ia into wrn pa
and wv...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms from the upper ms valley sewd
across the srn great lakes and oh valley...

...summary...
widespread damaging winds...a few tornadoes and large hail are
expected across northern illinois...southern wisconsin...northern
indiana and southwest lower michigan during the late afternoon and
evening on wednesday. a substantial severe wind threat should also
persist wednesday night across the remainder of southern lower
michigan and into western ohio.

...synopsis...
low pressure will move from ern neb across ia during the day with a
warm front lifting nwd across wi and into lower mi. substantial
low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s f
will be present behind the warm front leading to a very unstable air
mass. a swly low-level jet will be in place wed morning and will
intensify late in the day in response to an approaching
low-amplitude shortwave trough across the upper ms valley by 00z. an
expansive area of strong wind fields will support
long-lived...fast-moving severe storms across the entire risk area
beginning late afternoon wed across srn wi/nrn il and persisting
into thu morning toward the oh river.

...srn mn...ern ia...nrn il and srn wi // morning through midday...
a large area of thunderstorms will be ongoing wed morning roughly
from sern mn/ern ia across il and into srn indiana in association
with strong warm advection with the swly 850 mb jet. wind profiles
at this time will already be favorable for severe storms...with hail
the main threat. these storms are not expected to pose any
significant wind or tornado threat...and will likely weaken by
midday as the warm front lifts newd.

...upper ms valley sewd across the srn great lakes and oh valley //
late afternoon into the overnight hours...
a more substantial severe threat will develop late wed afternoon in
the wake of the earlier activity...after the atmosphere has had time
to heat and further destabilize. models are in good agreement
showing the surface low over nern ia between 21-00z...and this is
the most likely area for initiation or perhaps just e into wi/il. a
capping inversion will exist around 700 mb...but forcing for ascent
should breach it resulting in explosive development of supercells.
very large hail....tornadoes and damaging winds appear likely as
these cells move across srn wi and nrn il and possibly into cntrl
il. the tornado threat should be maximized near the sfc low...which
will track near the warm front where low-level shear/turning with
height will be greatest. other more isolated cells may extend swd
into cntrl il.

by evening...a rapid upscale-growth into a severe mcs is
anticipated...with the potential for widespread and significant
damaging winds. forecast wind fields just off the surface from
nam/gfs show in excess of 50 kts...and a intense convective feedback
signal with the wind fields overall suggesting an organized system.
as such...this potential system could extend farther e than
currently forecast despite lower levels of instability.

the primary threat corridor will likely be shifted a bit in later
outlooks as precise location of low track and warm front are better
forecast.

..jewell.. 06/21/2016

click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product

note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z