Toledo weather - Wed Jun 22 2016

spc ac 220559

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1259 am cdt wed jun 22 2016

valid 221200z - 231200z

...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms across parts of ern ia...srn
wi...nrn il...nrn and cntrl ind...sw lower mi and wcntrl oh...

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms across parts of the upper ms
valley...srn great lakes...oh valley and cntrl appalachian mtns
outside of the moderate risk area...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across parts of the upper ms
valley...srn great lakes region...oh valley...srn and cntrl
appalachian mtns and mid-atlantic outside of the enhanced risk
area...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of the mid to
upper ms valley...srn great lakes region...oh and tn valleys...srn
and cntrl appalachian mtns and mid-atlantic outside of the slight
risk area...

...summary...
widespread damaging wind gusts with some greater than 70 miles per
hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are expected this
afternoon and evening from northeast iowa into southern
wisconsin...northern illinois...southwest lower michigan...northern
to central indiana and parts of western ohio. a wind damage threat
may affect the upper ohio valley late this evening into the central
appalachian mountains and mid-atlantic during the overnight period.

...upper ms valley/srn great lakes/oh valley/cntrl appalachians...
an impressive and unseasonable fast-moving shortwave trough will
move esewd from the nrn plains into the upper ms valley today. ahead
of the system...a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across
the mid to upper ms valley extending ewd into the oh and tn valleys.
this setup will be favorable for a significant wind damage event
across parts of the upper ms valley...srn great lakes and oh valley
this afternoon and evening.

at the sfc...a warm front is forecast to setup from nrn il into
cntrl ind during the day with a wnw-ese oriented sharp gradient of
instability located along the front. a band of convection may be
ongoing near or just to the south of the warm front from ia sewd
into cntrl il at the start of the period. this convection is
forecast to move sewd into the oh river valley and may have an
isolated wind damage threat. as a moderately unstable warm sector
develops back to the west across the mid to upper ms valley...an
associated 60 to 75 kt mid-level jet will approach the region from
the west. the progressive mid-level jet will enhance large-scale
ascent and strengthen deep-layer shear across the upper ms valley
making conditions favorable for organized severe storms.

sfc-based thunderstorms are forecast to first initiate in ne ia to
the northeast of a sfc low during the mid afternoon. supercells with
large hail...wind damage and perhaps a strong tornado will be
possible with the initial development but a rather quick transition
to linear mode should take place. this line of storms is forecast to
move quickly esewd across nrn il into ncntrl ind where a bowing
linear mcs appears likely. model solutions including the cams and
deterministic solutions show differing scenarios but are supporting
this idea that a fast-moving linear mcs will track esewd across the
moderate risk area. i am favoring a more east southeast mcs track
much like the wrf-nssl4...nam and gfs solutions along the expected
gradient of moderate instability from near dubuque ia across srn
parts of the chicago metro to between south bend and indianapolis
ind to near columbus oh. a swath of wind damage along with a cluster
of tornadoes will be possible along this corridor. wind gusts above
65 kt will be possible near the apex of the bowing mcs. the
elongated instability corridor parallel to the mid-level flow
combined with a well-developed fast-moving upper-level system will
make a derecho possible across the region from late afternoon to the
mid evening. a wind damage threat may affect parts of the upper oh
valley late this evening into parts of the cntrl appalachian mtns
and mid-atlantic during the overnight period.

..broyles/picca.. 06/22/2016

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