Toledo weather - Wed Jun 22 2016

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
908 am edt wed jun 22 2016

lez142>146-162>166-ohz003-006>011-017>022-027>033-036>038-047-231315-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-
summit-portage-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-
mahoning-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
908 am edt wed jun 22 2016

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

thunderstorms may be severe late today and tonight.

severe thunderstorms will develop in the midwest today. these
severe thunderstorms have a good chance of reaching the local
area tonight...especially northwest and north central ohio.

damaging winds are the primary severe weather threat. widespread
damaging winds are possible. isolated tornados are possible.
torrential downpours will occur with the storms.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.

$$

---

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 221324
IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-WIZ000-221800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Great Lakes
and the Ohio Valley region this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Northern and central Indiana
Western Ohio
Northern Illinois
Southwestern Lower Michigan
Southern Wisconsin
Northeastern Iowa

* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few intense tornadoes
Isolated large hail up to baseball size

* SUMMARY...
Widespread damaging wind gusts with some greater than 70 miles
per hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are
expected this afternoon and evening from northeast Iowa into
extreme southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, southwest Lower
Michigan, northern to central Indiana and parts of western Ohio.
A wind damage threat may affect the upper Ohio Valley late this
evening into the central Appalachian mountains during the
overnight period.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Cohen/Guyer.. 06/22/2016

$$

---

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
643 am edt wed jun 22 2016

lez142>146-162>166-ohz003-006>011-017>022-027>033-036>038-047-231045-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-
summit-portage-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-
mahoning-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
643 am edt wed jun 22 2016

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

thunderstorms may be severe late today and tonight.

severe thunderstorms will develop in the midwest today. these
severe thunderstorms have a good chance of reaching the local
area late today or tonight...especially northwest and north
central ohio.

damaging winds are the primary severe weather threat. widespread
damaging winds are possible. isolated tornados are possible.
torrential downpours will occur with the storms.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation will be needed late today and tonight.

$$

---

fxus63 kiwx 220901
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
501 am edt wed jun 22 2016

..widespread severe weather expected by early tonight....

synopsis...
issued at 152 am edt wed jun 22 2016

a warm front will return northward today as low pressure moves
toward the area. this will result in a renewed threat of showers
and thunderstorms, and an elevated threat of widespread severe
weather late this afternoon and early tonight. in addition, there
is a potential of heavy rainfall tonight. high temperatures today
and thursday will be around 80. lows tonight will be from the mid
60s to lower 70s.

&&

short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 450 am edt wed jun 22 2016

a significant severe weather outbreak is expected late today and
early tonight. a fast moving upper level disturbance over the
northern plains will race southeast and move across the area early
tonight. storms over north dakota associated with this system early
this morning will move southeast and eventually intensify into a
fast moving line of storms. these storms are expected to produce
widespread wind damage by early tonight over the forecast area as a
warm front moves northeast. substantial low level shear will elevate
the risk for tornadoes, so have included this mention in the
hazardous weather outlook. have coordinated rainfall amounts with
the weather prediction center and have raised amounts tonight as
precipitable water values top 2.0 inches. the spc has shifted the
moderate risk just a little to the southwest from the day 2 outlook
yesterday to be more in line where upper level support will be
colocated where storms are able to become surface based.

&&

long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 450 am edt wed jun 22 2016

the severe weather threat will be waning early thursday as the upper
level disturbance moves out of the area. lingering showers will end
by thursday afternoon with conditions becoming less humid later in
the day. heat and humidity will begin returning friday with highs
climbing to near 90 late in the weekend. heat indices will top 90
degrees sunday. have raised shower and storm chances sunday and
sunday night favoring the model blend.

&&

aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z wednesday night)
issued at 146 am edt wed jun 22 2016

vfr conditions to continue through 12-15z. warm front and
associated elevated convections will overspread the area from the
west aft 15z. expect to see vfr to mvfr conditions as the core of
warm air and afternoon heating work to produce more cu/stratus.
next round of convection works into the region as mcc/mcs moves
out of il/wi toward the end of the taf period. expect to see
significantly lower cigs/vsbys as this convection moves in.

&&

iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...none.
&&

$$

synopsis...lewis
short term...skipper
long term...skipper
aviation...lewis

visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

follow us on facebook...twitter...and youtube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsnorthernindiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/nwsnorthernindiana

---

spc ac 220559

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1259 am cdt wed jun 22 2016

valid 221200z - 231200z

...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms across parts of ern ia...srn
wi...nrn il...nrn and cntrl ind...sw lower mi and wcntrl oh...

...there is an enh risk of svr tstms across parts of the upper ms
valley...srn great lakes...oh valley and cntrl appalachian mtns
outside of the moderate risk area...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across parts of the upper ms
valley...srn great lakes region...oh valley...srn and cntrl
appalachian mtns and mid-atlantic outside of the enhanced risk
area...

...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of the mid to
upper ms valley...srn great lakes region...oh and tn valleys...srn
and cntrl appalachian mtns and mid-atlantic outside of the slight
risk area...

...summary...
widespread damaging wind gusts with some greater than 70 miles per
hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are expected this
afternoon and evening from northeast iowa into southern
wisconsin...northern illinois...southwest lower michigan...northern
to central indiana and parts of western ohio. a wind damage threat
may affect the upper ohio valley late this evening into the central
appalachian mountains and mid-atlantic during the overnight period.

...upper ms valley/srn great lakes/oh valley/cntrl appalachians...
an impressive and unseasonable fast-moving shortwave trough will
move esewd from the nrn plains into the upper ms valley today. ahead
of the system...a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across
the mid to upper ms valley extending ewd into the oh and tn valleys.
this setup will be favorable for a significant wind damage event
across parts of the upper ms valley...srn great lakes and oh valley
this afternoon and evening.

at the sfc...a warm front is forecast to setup from nrn il into
cntrl ind during the day with a wnw-ese oriented sharp gradient of
instability located along the front. a band of convection may be
ongoing near or just to the south of the warm front from ia sewd
into cntrl il at the start of the period. this convection is
forecast to move sewd into the oh river valley and may have an
isolated wind damage threat. as a moderately unstable warm sector
develops back to the west across the mid to upper ms valley...an
associated 60 to 75 kt mid-level jet will approach the region from
the west. the progressive mid-level jet will enhance large-scale
ascent and strengthen deep-layer shear across the upper ms valley
making conditions favorable for organized severe storms.

sfc-based thunderstorms are forecast to first initiate in ne ia to
the northeast of a sfc low during the mid afternoon. supercells with
large hail...wind damage and perhaps a strong tornado will be
possible with the initial development but a rather quick transition
to linear mode should take place. this line of storms is forecast to
move quickly esewd across nrn il into ncntrl ind where a bowing
linear mcs appears likely. model solutions including the cams and
deterministic solutions show differing scenarios but are supporting
this idea that a fast-moving linear mcs will track esewd across the
moderate risk area. i am favoring a more east southeast mcs track
much like the wrf-nssl4...nam and gfs solutions along the expected
gradient of moderate instability from near dubuque ia across srn
parts of the chicago metro to between south bend and indianapolis
ind to near columbus oh. a swath of wind damage along with a cluster
of tornadoes will be possible along this corridor. wind gusts above
65 kt will be possible near the apex of the bowing mcs. the
elongated instability corridor parallel to the mid-level flow
combined with a well-developed fast-moving upper-level system will
make a derecho possible across the region from late afternoon to the
mid evening. a wind damage threat may affect parts of the upper oh
valley late this evening into parts of the cntrl appalachian mtns
and mid-atlantic during the overnight period.

..broyles/picca.. 06/22/2016

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z