Toledo weather wed June 22 2016 part 2

md 1024 concerning tornado watch 286... for northern illinois/northern and central indiana...and western ohio

mesoscale discussion 1024
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0853 pm cdt wed jun 22 2016

areas affected...northern illinois/northern and central
indiana...and western ohio

concerning...tornado watch 286...

valid 230153z - 230330z

the severe weather threat for tornado watch 286 continues.

summary...a tornado threat and potential for large hail and damaging
winds continue across the valid portion of ww 286 in much of
northern illinois and northwest indiana. through 03z...the greatest
threat for strong tornadoes should persist across north-central il
with the ongoing cluster of storms as they track to the
east-southeast near the warm front.

a new tornado watch will be coordinated this evening for a tornado
threat and an increasing severe/damaging wind threat downstream of
ww 286.

discussion...trends in early evening mosaic radar imagery showed a
cluster of supercells...some tornadic...tracking to the
east-southeast at 25-30 kt...with the greatest tornado threat
expected to remain 20-25 miles either side of the warm front. at
00-01z...this front extended from a surface low in southeast ia
through the complex of supercells in northern il to central indiana
and then tends to become more diffuse across central oh. low-level
winds across il/indiana have strengthened from the southwest at
30-40 kt with 0-km srh increasing /ilx wsr-88d vwp 0-1 km srh 300+
m2/s2 at 0124z/. this llj is also providing a feed of very strong
instability /mlcape 2500-4000 j per kg/...while the instability
gradient extended southeast into central indiana and southwest ohio.

and...the strengthening swly low-level winds are aiding in the
return of higher surface dew points across the warm sector /into
central indiana and southwest to central ohio/. this
destabilization suggests the track of an eventual
forward-propagating mcs/bow will move through central indiana later
this evening and into western/central ohio overnight. a veering and
further strengthening low-level jet to 50-55 kt combined with the
influx of very strong instability to the upscale growing mcs will
result in an increase in the forward speed...greatly enhancing the
threat for damaging winds.

..peters/edwards.. 06/23/2016

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...iwx...ind...lot...ilx...dvn...

lat...lon 40528981 41099067 41769000 42168929 42188781 41828744
41718691 41568618 41268499 40958381 40058357 39598389
39838519 40118722 39958750 39928818 40188855 40488967
40528981

read more

---

short term forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
943 pm edt wed jun 22 2016

ohz003-006>008-017>019-027>030-036>038-047-230230-
richland-ottawa-morrow-knox-hancock-marion-wyandot-huron-holmes-
lucas-sandusky-seneca-crawford-ashland-wood-
943 pm edt wed jun 22 2016

.now...

at 940 pm edt...doppler radar indicated showers and thunderstorms some with locally heavy
rain and brief gusty winds continued to to develop and move southeast over northwest and
north central ohio.

locations to impacted by the showers and storms through 11pm include...mansfield...findlay...
marion...bowling green...ashland...tiffin...mount vernon...fremont...bucyrus...
upper sandusky...mount gilead...galion...shelby...bellevue and clyde.

$$

thompson

hazardous weather outlook
hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
338 pm edt wed jun 22 2016

lez142>146-162>166-ohz003-006>011-018>022-033-231945-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-seneca-huron-medina-summit-
portage-mahoning-
338 pm edt wed jun 22 2016

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...this afternoon and tonight.

thunderstorms will are expected across central ohio overnight.
the area is under a heightened risk for severe weather. the main
threats will be very high winds and heavy rain. tornadoes are
possible, but have a lower chance of occurring. the main threat
will be after midnight. isolated severe weather could occur
after 8 pm.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation will likely be needed.

$$