Toledo weather Friday August 12 2016

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
904 am edt fri aug 12 2016

synopsis...
a slow moving frontal system in michigan will makes its way across
the area through the weekend then linger across the ohio valley into
early next week before lifting back over the area.

&&

near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
hot and humid airmass with approaching cold front should lead to
another day of sct to numerous shra/tsra developing...especially in
the nw and across the north.

precipitable water values are now over 2 inches so anything that
develops will have equal potential to produce localized flood
problems. an isolated downburst is possible too. anytime we break
out sun for a little while we have been hitting/exceeding 90. but as
yesterday was testament...cloud cover placement will be key...yng
yesterday was 86 while akr was 97 and cak 95. with these warmer
temperatures and the lower/mid 70s dewpoints locations will be
flirting with heat advisory criteria.

&&

short term /6 pm this evening through monday night/...
starting to consider a flash flood watch for saturday...but will
hold off to be able to better place it and figure out how long it
may need to run for. any storm between now and sunday has the
potential for torrential downpours. far north central oh,
northeast oh and northwest pa have had the most recent rainfall
and therefore the lower flash flood guidance. will have to focus
on these areas...but also others as rainfall rates will be high
enough to still cause issues even where the rainfall has been
more sporadic up to this point. the main theme though is this
front will be slow to cross the area and the rich moisture is not
going anywhere anytime soon.

the arrival of the front for saturday through sunday will support
more widespread convection. several rounds at any one place
possible. will continue with the categorical precip chances. with
increasing shear there will be a little more organization to the
storms which means a somewhat increased risk for marginally
severe storms.

cold front will hang up across the area into sunday. southeast
counties have the best chances at having showers/thunderstorms
linger. there still remains uncertainty though as guidance wavers
on how much of the area will see reduced chances by sunday. the
front sees a little better push south of the area by monday and
will gradually taper those precip chances.

plentiful cloud cover will keep highs in check in the mid/upper
80s this weekend...but the mugginess stays.

&&

long term /tuesday through thursday/...
additional ripples of low pressure will move along the stalled
boundary through the long term. still uncertainty on where the
boundary will be located with it likely wobbling with each low
pressure that rides along it and any convective outflow. the region
will continue to see chances of thunderstorms through the long term.
potential will exist for locally heavy rainfall.

temperatures through the long term will be very close to seasonal
averages.

&&

aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
winds have remained up enough to limit the fog formation this
morning. however some mvfr, maybe ifr, cloud cover has developed
over inland nw pa. this should dissipate with additional mixing
through the morning. high level cloud cover should spread
eastward with an outflow from convection moving into illinois this
morning reaches nw oh. these thunderstorms should move west to
east across the area into the evening. lake breeze will not be as
good a trigger today but there could be some storms extreme ne oh
and nw pa.

winds will be a bit stronger from the south and southwest at
around 10 knots. strongest winds will be closer to lake erie with
gusts up to 20 knots possible.

outlook...non-vfr possible in thunderstorms through early next
week. areas of non-vfr fog possible each morning.

&&

marine...
southwesterly winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots today as a cold
front moves into the central great lakes. this front will move
closer on saturday with winds increasing a bit more. winds around 15
knots combined with the longer fetch will likely build waves to at
least 2 to 4 feet from willowick to ripley. locations from geneva-on-
the-lake to ripley have a chance to reach small craft conditions by
saturday afternoon. the frontal boundary is expected to stall over
the lake and linger into next week. northwest winds arrive saturday
night in the wake of the cold front that will stall south of the
lake. since the area of low pressure moves away from the lake winds
and waves will decrease. winds will then vary on the lake as each
ripple of low pressure moves along the stalled frontal boundary for
monday into tuesday. still uncertain how far south this stalled
boundary will be located.

&&

cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...oudeman
near term...oudeman/adams
short term...oudeman
long term...mullen
aviation...mullen
marine...mullen

Fulton and Henry Counties click to expand contents

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hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
444 am edt fri aug 12 2016

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-130845-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
444 am edt fri aug 12 2016

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

any thunderstorm that develops today will have the potential for
heavy rainfall and the possibility of localized flooding.

heat indices will be in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees today.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

thunderstorms that develop this weekend will have the potential
for heavy rainfall and the possibility of localized flooding. the
coverage of storms is expected to be greatest this weekend as a
slow moving cold front crosses the area.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

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Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Aug 12, 2016 9:05 am

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 100. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 3am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 1pm and 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 86. Southwest wind 9 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. West wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 83.

Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 30%.