• Wed Eve, Oct 30 Update

Rescheduling Trick-or-Treat because of the forecast for rain

(My comments that were posted in an Oct 30, 2013 Toledo Talk thread )

From an Oct 30, 2013 Toledo Blade story

Some area communities changed the times for trick-or-treating after getting spooked by weather forecasts.

Elmore, Port Clinton, Allen Township, Woodville, Gibsonburg, Genoa, Grand Rapids, Fostoria, and Wauseon postponed the festivities for the weekend because forecasts call for rain showers.

Other northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan communities had not reported any changes to their trick-or-treat events, mostly scheduled for Thursday night.

Toledoans are a little tougher than Allen Township wherever that is. We have two gang maps. The threat of rain won't stop trick-or-treating in T-town.

In our neighborhood with the many large oak trees, I'd be more concerned about the possibility of falling branches, since we may get our first big wind of the fall on Thursday. Maybe the kids should wear helmets.

Each year from late October to early January, we have a few days with big howling winds, which is typical for the Great Lakes Region. The Gales of November. If we don't hire a tree company to remove the dead branches, those winds will do the job.

At the moment, however, Thursday's forecast winds aren't too bad, so it must be the thunderstorm threat that is scaring people about trick-or-treating on Halloween.

For the past two or three days, the Cleveland National Weather Service has been forecasting the possibility of severe weather on Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center's forecast for Thursday, however, shows the 'Slight Risk' for severe weather to be located in the southwest quarter of Ohio.

http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/hazardous-weather-outlook.html
issued on Wed, Oct 30, 2013 at 4:27 a.m. :

there is the possibility for severe thunderstorms late thursday afternoon into thursday night. the main threat will be strong thunderstorm winds. keep in mind...strong wind gusts could possibly be associated with showers and no thunder is heard.

a cold front will move through the area late thursday night.

gusty winds ahead of a cold front will occur thursday into thursday night. winds could gust as high as 40 mph across the area and could cause objects not secured to be blown around. there is the possibility that either a wind advisory or high wind watch could be issued for thursday into thursday night.

http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast.html

Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, then showers and thunderstorms after 11am. High near 67. Breezy, with a south wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Low around 48. Windy, with a south wind 18 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wed Eve, Oct 30 Update

The most likely weather complaint on Thursday could be that it's too warm with wearing a costume. I don't think the winds will be that bad during the trick-or-treat period, and a little "breeze" may be welcomed. And at the moment, it seems that the threat for thunderstorms has diminished.

The rescheduled trick-or-treat date is Saturday evening for those other communities, and the weather may actually be worse. It will definitely be colder on Saturday, maybe by 20 degrees with a threat of rain showers.

Excerpts from the most recent forecast discussion:
http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast-discussion.html

the low is progged to continue to deepen as it tracks into the northern great lakes on thursday. a classic track for strong winds on the great lakes. the forecast is somewhat complicated.

we will probably stay below wind advisory criteria although it will be close across nw ohio especially later in the day as the low level jet increases.

highs well in the 60s to the lower 70s!

the better chance for wind problems would seem to be thursday night. with the cold front. the front will likely get to the i-75 corridor in northwest ohio between 04-06z and then move east late.

can we sneak in trick or treat before the worst gets here? those heading out should be prepared for windy and showery [and warm] conditions and stay up on the threat for thunderstorms. will not issue any watches/warnings advisories yet... will wait at least another model run or two to try and pin down the threat and timing and potential for severe thunderstorms versus a wind advisory or wind warning.

As the media would say, stay tuned as this crisis unfolds.

Toledo's weather forecast:

Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 69. Breezy, with a south wind 11 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

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