• Additional Comments
• Media
• Nov 2013
• More analysis

Toledo voters by the numbers

(My Nov 4, 2013 comment in a ToledoTalk.com thread about Toledo's mayoral election.)

"Toledoans are the sons and daughters of farmers, heavy manufacturing factory workers, all made of hard working stern stuff ..."

I don't understand what that has to do with anything, but for the record, Toledoans are also the sons and daughters of nurses, designers, chefs, accountants, etc. who also work very hard.

The rest of this post could be a bit numbers heavy.

For most Toledoans, none of this politics stuff matters much anyway, and that's probably okay.

It was no surprise that Toledo's voter turnout in the September 2013 primary was 15 percent.

I don't know what the expected turnout is in Toledo for tomorrow's election, but I'm guessing it will be around only 30 percent.

Since the September 2013 primary had a lower turnout than the September 2009 primary, then I assume the same will occur with the November 2013 general election.

Toledo's voter turnout in the November 2009 election was 34 percent, so that's why I'm guessing tomorrow's Toledo voter turnout will be 30 to 32 percent.

And since some eligible voters are not registered to vote, then more than 70 percent of Toledo's eligible voters will not participate in tomorrow's election. That seems to be the biggest message of all.

Apparently, Toledo has only about 160,000 registered voters.

According to the census, Toledo's 2010 population was 287,208. 24% of residents were under the age of 18.

In the 2010 census, 68,930 Toledoans were too young to vote.

That means 218,278 Toledoans were eligible to vote. Granted, Toledo's population has declined a bit more since the 2010 census, so the number of Toledoans eligible to vote today may be around 215,000, but only 160,000 are registered.

A difference of 55,000? That seems off.

25 percent of eligible Toledo voters are not even registered to vote. Really?

In September 2005, Toledo had 189,454 registered voters. And that number today is allegedly around 160,000. That rate of decline among registered voters is greater than Toledo's population decline. Maybe that's because most of the people leaving the city or dying off were registered voters, leaving behind a growing percentage of unregistered voters in Toledo. That probably does not matter, since most of the registered Toledo voters don't vote.

Most Toledoans do not care about the outcomes of elections.

For the September 2013 primary, the only cities that held elections in Lucas County were Toledo and Maumee. The Lucas County BOE reported a total number of registered voters for that day of: 164,645. Take away the Maumee voters, and I'm guessing the Toledo number is about 160,000 registered voters.

The turnout is measured against registered voters and not eligible voters.

Let's be optimistic and say Toledo will have a "high" turnout tomorrow of 35 percent.

35% * 160,000 = 56,000 Toledoans will vote tomorrow out of approximately 215,000 Toledoans who are eligible to vote. (That's a real turnout of 26 percent.)

In Toledo's November 2009 mayoral election, 67,000 votes were cast with a 34 percent turnout. But a 35 percent turnout tomorrow may only equal 56,000 voters. Huh? That seems like a large drop-off in only four years.

If Toledo's turnout is under 35 percent, then it's possible that the number of Toledoans voting tomorrow will be lower than the number of Toledoans who are eligible to vote but are not registered to vote.

Bizarre. But my arithmetic may be way off, since I've had no coffee today.

If 67,000 people voted in Toledo's November 2009 mayoral election, then I find it hard to believe that fewer than 60,000 votes will be cast in tomorrow's election. Maybe the Lucas County BOE's registered vote number is off. But I can't believe the BOE would make a mistake.

But if the numbers are correct, and my turnout prediction is correct, then only about 25 percent of Toledo's eligible voters will vote tomorrow.

For local media orgs trying to attract an audience, it might be best to ignore politics. On the other hand, it could be an opportunity for a small, startup media outlet to focus only on regional politics.

Additional Comments

(From my other Nov 4, 2013 comment in the same thread.)

---

Since my September choice, Opal, is not in the race, then I take a simpler approach to this decision process.

The Blade editorial board endorsed Collins.

Jack Ford endorsed Collins.

Allegedly, Carty Finkbeiner has helped Collins on this campaign.

With the Blade, JaFo, and Czarty backing Collins, then Collins is not an independent.

When a person irritates the Blade, JaFo, and Czarty, then that person is doing something right.

Toledo's future???

Collins has the support of three major destructive forces from Toledo's past. In case you forgot, those would be the Blade editorial board, Jack Ford, and Carty Finkbeiner.

That's not a future.

Easy choice: Mike Bell for Toledo Mayor.

---

"The blade link provided was to show the relative comparison between the two candidates in gross dollars received and spent."

So? Look back at the September 2013 primary. Sep 10, 2013 Blade story.

• Lopez raised $103,393
• Bell raised $91,010
• McNamara raised $90,296
• Collins raised only $10,267, but he finished second.

The financial differences between Bell and Collins in the general election is significantly lower than what Collins faced in the run-up to the primary.

The top four finishers in the September 2013 primary:

(I) Michael P. Bell	6340	27%
(I) D. Michael Collins	5806	24%
(D) Anita Lopez	5443	23%
(D) Joe McNamara	5328	22%

That's a lot of anti-Bell opposition. That's probably the reason why Bell has spent nearly all of his campaign money.

The Ohio Democrat Party 'supports' Collins, but the statewide party does not 'endorse' Collins. Politics.

Prior to the September primary, Ohio Democrat Chairman Chris Redfern 'identified defeating Mayor Bell as the party’s top goal for 2013.'

Democrats all over Ohio want to defeat Bell, eh?

From the Sep 27, 2013 Blade story :

“We will not coordinate with Mr. Collins’ campaign,” Mr. Redfern said. “We will communicate directly to registered Democrats in the city of Toledo about the importance of defeating Mike Bell.”

---

"This is our city to be run the way we see fit."

Fine. But how do you explain this statement that was posted above:

Prior to the September primary, Ohio Democrat Chairman Chris Redfern 'identified defeating Mayor Bell as the party’s top goal for 2013.'

The statewide political party's top goal was defeating Bell.

Redfern said:

“We will communicate directly to registered Democrats in the city of Toledo about the importance of defeating Mike Bell.”

Why is a statewide political party meddling with municipal politics? This is our business, right? Why is Toledo's mayoral election the business of Cleveland, Dayton, Youngstown, Zanesville? Answer: that's politics.

Media

Nov 5, 2013 election day coverage.

Mid-day Toledo Blade story

Voter turnout today, as of 1 p.m., remained low in Lucas County.

Only 11.9 percent of registered voters had made it to the polls, according to the mid-day data collection from the Lucas County Board of Elections.

As of 9 a.m., turnout was 3.7 percent.

Compared to the 2009 general election, in which total turnout was 37.5 percent, as of 9 a.m., 6.5 percent of voters had gone to the polls; as of 1 p.m., 15.5 percent of voters cast ballots.

The 5 p.m. turnout in 2009 was 26.5 percent.

Voter turnout for the November 2009 general election :

Voter turnout in Lucas County was 36.96.
It was 33.9 percent in Toledo.

So this year's turnout Lucas County turnout compared to 2009:

Lucas County Voter Turnout Percentages
	2009	2013
9:00 a.m.	6.5	3.7
1:00 p.m.	15.5	11.9
5:00 p.m.	26.5	(23)*
final	37	(34)*
Toledo only	34	(32)*

* my predictions as of 3:50 p.m. EDT, Nov 5, 2013.

Above Blade story updated shortly after 6:00 p.m.:

Voter turnout in Lucas County rose to 20.5 percent as of 5 p.m., the board of elections reports. The 5 p.m. turnout lags behind 2009, which was 26.5 percent, according to Lucas County.

So ...

Lucas County Voter Turnout Percentages
	2009	2013
9:00 a.m.	6.5	3.7
1:00 p.m.	15.5	11.9
5:00 p.m.	26.5	20.5
final	37	(32)*
Toledo only	34	(30)*

Nov 2013

Blade reports :

Turnout was 25.4 percent of registered voters in the city.

25.4 percent? That's much lower than the 30 to 32 percent that I predicted.

More from the Blade story:

The unofficial vote was 28,002 for Mr. Collins and 21,535 for Mr. Bell.

Fewer than 50,000 votes? My math expected a little over 50,000 total votes cast for the Toledo mayoral election, and I thought that seemed off because in 2009, 67,000 votes were cast for the Bell-Wilkowski election.

Both losers in the 2005 and 2009 mayoral elections had more votes than the winner this time.

2005:
Carty Finkbeiner	47,351	61%
Jack Ford	29,169	38%
	76,520
-
2009:
Mike Bell	35,118	52%
Keith Wilkowski	31,987	48%
	67,105
-
2013: unofficial
Mike Collins	28,002	56.5%
Mike Bell	21,536	43.5%
-	49,537

In 2013, nearly 27,000 fewer votes were cast for the mayor's race compared to eight years ago.

2013 City Council At-Large
These Top 6 take office

Rob Ludeman	27,038
Jack Ford	25,081
Sandy Spang	23,690
Steven C. Steel	21,177
Theresa M. Gabriel	19,274
Adam J. Martinez	19,202

Compare the 2013 council at-large vote numbers to eight years ago.

• In 2005, the 10th place finisher had more votes than this year's 6th place finisher.
• In 2005, all of the top 6 finishers received over 30,000 votes, and in 2013, not a single at-large candidate received 30,000 votes.

The voter decline or apathy in Toledo in the last eight years seems stunning. But maybe this declining trend is normal when compared to the last 24 years.

In my opinion, the year with the mayoral and council at-large elections is the most important election year for Toledoans. And only 25 percent of registered voters went to the polls in 2013. The weather on Tuesday cannot be blamed for the low turnout because it was mild with temps in the 50s, no wind, and no rain. Comfy.

Since a significant number of eligible Toledo voters are not registered, the real voter turnout yesterday in Toledo was probably around 20 percent. At least 80 percent of Toledo adults don't care who gets elected mayor and council at-large.

http://toledobladedata.com/electionresults

More analysis

"Maybe voters are just impatient and want more improvement sooner. No one knows the exact answer."

Hah! Sorry, hockeyfan, but sadly, this election was probably about one simple thing: Bell's support for SB5 in 2011. Two years ago. The unions don't forget.

Again, the statewide democrat party made the defeat of Mike Bell its number one priority of 2013 because of Bell's 2011 support of SB5.

Don't over-think it. It's that simple.

A secondary issue against Bell for many Toledo voters may have been the yellow horde that have landed on Toledo's shores. Combine the two issues.

Mike Bell: perceived anti-union support and pro-Chinese support.

Approximately 80 percent of adult Toledoans did not vote yesterday. The ones who did vote probably don't want to digest complicated issues ahead of the election. They want things boiled down to simple, edible chunks.

Mike Bell: anti-union, pro-Chinese. That's easy for a union town to understand and to oppose.

This morning, I heard Michael Miller of the Toledo Free Press interview Mike Collins on WSPD.

Collins said right-to-work is a "cancer" on this state.

A November 2004 Columbus Dispatch story said Toledo was the second-most unionized city in the nation. Toledo may not be number 2 today, but you know that it's up there. So what is that? A decapitation?

http://toledobladedata.com/electionresults

Or maybe this election results map at the Toledo Blade explains the vote outcome

Ludeman, Martinez, and Spang got elected to Toledo City Council at-large seats. They are from South Toledo.

Collins is from South Toledo. I thought maybe that the South Toledo voters who turned out for the council people helped carry Collins, but it appears that Collins did quite well and maybe even better in north and west Toledo.

Look at the vote totals in the wards in and near Collins' home:

7 (Collins' home)
Bell: 1,212
Collins: 1,683

16
Bell: 1,427
Collins: 1,945

24
Bell: 1,216
Collins: 1,573

Approximately a difference of 500 votes in each of those three wards.

Here are totals from a couple wards, located at the other end of the city along the Michigan border:

1
Bell: 1,036
Collins: 2,074

3
Bell: 979
Collins: 1,952

23
Bell: 1,254
Collins: 2,353

Approximately a difference of a 1000 votes in each ward. Collins did better further away from his district.

Jack Ford elected to Toledo City Council. Great day in the morning. That's what happens when 80 percent of Toledo adults don't care.

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